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Many people have speculated about the date selected for the first Presidential debate. Many questions have been raised about having it before the candidates are formally selected at their respective conventions, of having the debates so early in the season, and since Biden chose the date, how influential he was in agreeing to the debate and choosing the date.
I suspect that Biden knows — as do his managers and Dr. Jill — that hiding out and avoiding Trump would work against him. His poll numbers are a disaster, although I can’t figure out why Biden fails in every category in a Fox News poll, except in his overall governance. What’s that about?
Since Biden’s mental acuity has become especially detrimental to his image, he/his managers may have figured out that the sooner they have the debate, the better; the less probability there will be for his mumbling and stumbling getting worse.
There have also been rumors that if he doesn’t perform well (better to know sooner rather than later) at the debate, a small cadre of his managers will tell him he has to step down. How they expect him to leave without a fuss, particularly a public fuss, is above my pay grade.
We then have to wonder who would replace him. Some people say they will bribe Kamala Harris to step down, too. Then what? Would they select Gavin Newsom? I know some think he’s handsome (not my type), but his record in California is atrocious. And I can’t imagine any other Democrat that is anywhere near qualified.
I’m amused at all the “guidance” that Trump is getting from everywhere about how he should behave at the debate: he should “tone it down” and not be so brash; he should let Biden do most of the talking because he’ll run out of juice and start losing his grasp on reality; Trump shouldn’t beat up on Biden too badly, because he’ll look like a bully, and Biden will become a sympathetic character.
More than anything, this is one time that I find the speculation somewhat amusing, despite the sobering fact that how these men perform may be a factor in who runs the country for the next four years. Yet many seem to think that the citizens have already decided who they will vote for.
Do you think they’ve decided?
Could they be convinced to change their minds by the performances at the debate?
I know that many of you hate to watch these debates.
This time, though, I’d pop the popcorn.
Discussion (74)
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For the Democrats it's an example of the two-way win. That's win if you win, it's great; if you lose, you still have something useful or fortunate. In this case, if Biden performs well maybe his poll numbers improve and (with a little help from ballot counters) can be dragged across the finish line again. If he loses, then the replacement plan (sans Kamala) can be embraced and implemented and the heretofore focus on cognitive issues in the campaign are eliminated.
The fascinating question for me if are there two camps in the professional operatives who want a win or a loss? Or are they all rooting for a loss in order to implement a replacement? My guess is that there must be two camps because I was expecting a replacement before now. Could Kamala really be seen by Democrats as that awful? Apparently.
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I think we spend too much time speculating on rational (professional?) motivations for things OBiden do. I believe the decision for the date was based on something I couldn’t even guess at. I assume there is some long view “they”* stick to because “they” seem to make no adjustments for what he ends up doing. I assume they know his state of play and don’t care. I also believe that if/when he’s no longer useful some announcement will be made on his behalf and what Jill or Joe think will not matter. I really don’t think Jill has the veto or deciding vote she thinks she has. Obama just doesn’t care what others think of him or his actions and I assume those behind him have other things in their mind.
I can’t contort my brain to guess but my motto is Expect a surprise.
* The “they” we all believe are really running things.
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Great question. There must be two camps, but it's hard to know if one dominates over the other. If Joe blows it, I think everyone will be on the same page.
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I agree. Predictions are fun but not consequential.
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One can parse the polls all they want but the election will probably be decided by the double haters. Do they break one way or the other or do they simply give up and not vote?
Our problem, and by “our” I mean those of us deeply interested in politics, is that we’re too online and too invested and have really have no idea where the vast majority of the country is at. And despite the early debate here, this campaign has not yet truly started.
Wait until the last primaries in August determine the final slate of candidates. Then the local commercials are going to try to hang the foibles at the top of the ticket down ballot. If Biden is still on the ticket both sides are going to run an albatross campaign. “Don’t vote for ‘candidate X’ because he is so-and-so’s enabler.” If Joe is gone that dynamic changes.
If the Democrats decide Joe has to go I don’t expect them to be rational in their choice for a replacement since their natural reaction to being down in the polls or losing a race is always, “Well, we weren’t progressive enough.” Policy-wise it’s not going to get better.
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