Quote of the Day - History and Wars

History is littered with wars which everybody knew would never happen. – Enoch Powell

I write about military history. I can list example after example of wars which everybody knew would never happen. Two of which are going on today: the Ukraine War and the Israeli-Hamas War. The Ukraine War, which has been going on for two years was just supposed to be a coup — Russian reclamation of a breakaway province, over in a week. A special military operation. Instead it has ballooned into the biggest ground war in Europe since World War II. Similarly, who in January 2023 had a full scale war between Israel and Hamas on their bingo cards? Terrorism, yes, but a full-scale war?

Those are just contemporary examples. In 1739, a Captain Jenkins lost his ear. His supporters claimed he was an honest merchant captain, brutally abused by Spanish customs official, who sliced off the good captain's ear to insult the English. His detractors countered that Jenkins was a scoundrel who had lost his ear at the pillory, while being flogged for theft, or worse.

Regardless of how Jenkins lost his ear, Britain was bored. It seized the opportunity to pick a fight with Spain, seeking spoils and wealth in the Spanish Main, and Great South Sea. The War of Jenkins Ear (as it was named), started as a colonial adventure involving Spain and Britain. It ended in 1748 as the first conflict fought on a global scale. It grew into the War of Austrian Succession. Battles were fought not only in the Americas and Europe, but over virtually every ocean and the Indian subcontinent. No one thought it would happen before the war started, but grew uncontrollably,

Similarly, the American Civil War was not supposed to happen. Those in the South believed they could walk out of the United States unhindered. That the Northern States would either welcome the departure of the slave states or lacked the courage and resolve to stop them. Instead it grew into the deadliest conflict fought on the North American continent.

For that matter, four-score-and-seven years before that an argument over taxation and political representation went from demonstrations to a full scale war neither side expected. It could have been averted. Had Parliament offered to seat one representative from each of the North American colonies in the years between 1770 and 1775 it would have taken the wind out the independence movement.

It would not have altered the balance of Parliament (there were over 550 MPs in 1700) but it would have appeased the Colonials. Yet even though there were 2.1 million British citizens in North America and 7.4 million in the Home Islands, Parliamentary representation was not offered until it was clear Britain was losing the war. Because in 1770-1775 no one thought there would be a war.

Of course, nothing like that could happen today. Aren't we at the end of history? Here is my concern. We are heading into a Presidential election in November. What happens after that election if nearly half the voters in that election are convinced it was stolen? That the result was fraudulent and invalid? That the other side intends to declare a national emergency and suspend future elections?

Will the losing side, whether Democrat or Republican tell themselves "better luck next time? We'll be back in four years?" Or will they take action to reverse what they perceive to be a fraudulent result, and the last chance to prevent the other side from forming a dictatorship — by any means possible?

That would never happen? It has happened in many places in many times throughout history. By the time Julius Caesar refused to lay down his imperium before crossing the Rubicon it had already happened several times in Rome. It happened in Mexico several times in the 1800s, Spain in the 1930s, and Yugoslavia in the 1990s. It even happened in the United States after the 1860 Presidential election.

If both sides do not cool their rhetoric about the depravity of the other side prior to this election what everyone says could never happen — a second American Civil War — might well happen.