Get the Ricochet app
Ricochet will work fine in a browser on your mobile devices, but for the best experience please download our app.
Back when the Berlin Wall fell and the Soviet Union collapsed, a brilliant and influential essay was written pointing out that the 20th Century had witnessed the spectacular rise and fall of Fascism in Germany and Japan, plus the spectacular rise and fall of Communism in Russia and elsewhere. Of even more importance, however, was the spectacular rise and triumph of democracy and capitalism in America and Europe. Because events had conclusively proved the superiority of democracy and capitalism, the essay argued, the entire world would and should adopt them, and the entire world would and should prosper in peace.
The essay was brilliant, rational, and spectacularly over-optimistic.
Recent events are not a demonstration of the superiority of Judaism over Islam. They are a further demonstration of the superiority of democracy and capitalism over anything that is not democracy and capitalism. Argentina supplies additional recent evidence that the key to success is not whether you spend one day a week in a church, synagogue, or mosque. The key to success is spending 6 days a week striving to get rich in a free market environment.
Therefore, here is a confident short-term prediction for Iran. Fordow will either be surrendered or destroyed before the 4th of July. (Update since this prediction was cast at noon on the 21st: Called it.) With Fordow destroyed, the current regime will either fall quickly thereafter or slowly thereafter.
Here is a non-confident long-term prediction for Iran. Persians have a history of over a thousand years as successful traders and merchants. They have a long history of not being anti-Semitic. They are well educated. Iranians living abroad thrive in free economies. Why the hell shouldn’t they see the obvious and become a democratic, capitalist country? If they do, they will succeed. (Sitting on top of a giant pool of oil will help.)
It is easy to see a democratic Iran becoming an enthusiastic signer of the Abraham Accords and becoming a significant trading partner with Israel. Iran has been the biggest impediment to the spread of the Abraham Accords. Should Iran sign, it is not difficult to see the entire Middle East deciding that hating Israel is an unproductive way to live their lives.
Yes, the Palestinians will persist in choosing hate and poverty over tolerance and prosperity. But if the oil-wealthy decide to quit subsidizing the hate, or more importantly, quit buying weapons for the haters, the Palestinians will bring misery only to themselves.
The past few days have been as dramatic and eye-opening as the fall of the Berlin Wall. The context is different but the lesson is identical. Democracy and capitalism work. Freedom works. Non-Freedom fails.
Brilliant, rational, over-optimism is appropriate.
G-Pub
Discussion (14)
CHARTER MEMBER
To read this bio, please join Ricochet.
I love that the Persians could end up being Israel's best friends in the hood! What a turnaround that could be. And, you are correct, Grandpa, the history between Jews and Persians supports you theory.
To read this bio, please join Ricochet.
Muslims were liberated from Saddam, Qaddafi, the Taliban, Assad but nowhere has there been the spontaneous emergence of freedom and the rule of law under a limited government. Turkey is no longer secular, the Taliban is back and Lebanon and Gaza will be disaster zones for at least a generation.
Why would we expect Iran to become something modern, rational and democratic? The Shah was a dictator for life. What is the model or cultural shared memory that would guide such a transformation?
To read this bio, please join Ricochet.
Not even Canadians were willing to be liberated from tyranny to live under freedom, limited government, and rule of law. At least not when it was the United States that tried to liberate them.
To read this bio, please join Ricochet.
"It may be tyranny, but it's OUR tyranny, so FO!"
To read this bio, please join Ricochet.
Prior to 1979, Iran was fairly secular. The Theocracy took power without majority support. The majority hated the Shah, but there were many non-Muslim components to that revolution that just got out muscled by the mullahs. It not just the Supreme Leader that is hated in 2025, the very notion of rule by clerics is despised. The Revolutionary Guard is despised. The great hope is the regular army. The draftees. Will they and their officers refuse to shoot the protesters? If they refuse, democracy has a chance.
You're seeing five of 14 comments. Sign in, or join for just $5 per month, to read them all and add your own.