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Murder Stats post-Bruen?

iWe
@iWe
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Baltimore City recorded a 21% drop in homicides in 2023. There is nothing the City government has done this past year that could have achieved that result. Our mayor is a twit, and all of his so-called initiatives are variations on "Sing Kumbaya" that has racked up a track record of perfect failure to date.

The only plausible input is that more gun ownership in the general populace has deterred would-be shooters. My local range, which was attended by maybe 40% black people before Bruen, is now at 70% or even 80% black attendance. People who want to protect themselves and their loved ones.

I think the reduction is clearly causal. And it is national.

The U.S. is on course to end 2023 with one of the largest annual drops in homicides on record, according to preliminary figures from AH Datalytics, a data analysis firm. ... By the numbers: Preliminary public data from 177 cities analyzed by AH Datalytics indicates that the country could see at least a 12% decrease in murders from last year.
  • Declines have been seen in New York City, Chicago, Los Angeles, Detroit and other large cities.
  • The firm expects homicides overall to fall from 21,156 last year to around 18,450 this year, representing a 12.8% decline.
  • Other forms of violent crime — rape, aggravated assault and robbery — are set to see a decline as well, according to preliminary quarterly data published by the FBI earlier this month.

I think this is a HUGE outcome from Bruen, and needs to be discussed, shared, and -yes - trumpeted.

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Discussion (32)

  • Doug Watt@DougWatt

    The numbers are interesting, a look at the numbers from Channel 2 in Baltimore

    The last time Baltimore City recorded fewer than 300 homicides in a year was in 2014. That year, the City recorded 211 homicides, at a rate of about 33.8 per 100,000 population. The approximate population of the City in that year was also 623,500.

    The most recent population estimate for Baltimore City, from the US Census Bureau from July 1, 2022 showed the City's population has declined to around 570,000, a more than 50,000 person drop over the course of the decade.

    This puts this year's rate of homicides per 100,000 population at 46.15, significantly higher than in 2014, but still a big step down from last year's rate of 57.9, when Baltimore recorded 330 murders.

    The DOJ is touting a reduction in homicides. The question becomes compared to when. As the 2024 election day gets closer manipulating the stats will probably get more interesting.

  • Full Size Tabby@FullSizeTabby
    ReplyingtoDr. Bastiat

    Dr. Bastiat (View Comment):

    Sorry – could you remind me what “Bruen” is?

    The 2022 decision by the United States Supreme Court that found unconstitutional New York State's very restrictive rules on firearms. The New York laws that were struck down included provisions that made it almost impossible for a citizen to carry a firearm (legally) outside the citizen's home.

    Before I go along with a thesis that the court decision might be a primary contributor to a decline in violent crime, I'd like to know if any jurisdictions (other than New York) changed any of their gun permitting processes or possession enforcement, or if there's any indication that a significant number of people relied on the court decision and changed behavior (such as more people possessing or carrying a firearm because the Court said the Constitution really means that people have a right to possess and to carry a weapon).

  • Douglas Pratt@DouglasPratt

    Damn straight. Laws that permit concealed carry are the only gun laws that can be shown to reduce crime. They have a salutary effect on what Massad Ayoob calls the Victim Selection Process.

    Insert Robert Heinlein quote here, followed by the one about Col. Colt.

    According to Handwaving Freakoutery, the risk of getting shot in a school shooting is statistically identical to the risk of boarding an airplane.

    I have read (I believe it was on The Reload or TTAG) that every mass shooting event that has taken place since the Fifties, except one, was in a gun-free zone. The one exception was Gabby Giffords.

    Furthermore, the overwhelming majority are carried out by young men who were not raised by their biological fathers. We don't have a gun crisis, we have a family crisis.

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