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I think one of the best sources available to track the status of the Hamas/Israeli war is to listen to Dan Senor’s podcast, Call Me Back. Dan has been having weekly conversations with a friend of his, Haviv Rettig Gur, who writes for the Times of Israel. (I’ve mentioned the podcast before in another post.) In this latest podcast, I was struck by some things that Gur shared that I wasn’t aware of. And I also realized that the war could take a very different turn if Hamas begins to lose hope for victory.
The strategic change that Gur described would likely happen in January. At that point, Israel will send many of its reservists back home and will fight with a smaller force of regular IDF. They will be targeting with even more zeal the Hamas leaders in the south. Gur explained that this third strategy (after the air and land attacks) could take months or possibly years. Eventually those reservists will be called back.
If you’ve kept up with Hamas’ demands, you know that most recently they have refused to negotiate regarding the hostages. They say that unless Israel completely ends the war, no more hostages will be released. According to Gur, this was a tactical error: Hamas has essentially said that the hostages remaining in their custody are as good as dead, because Israel will not end the war until they have destroyed Hamas. They also have no bargaining tools. That outcome doesn’t mean that every Hamas fighter will be killed, but that they will be unable to threaten Israel with any serious pushback.
These decisions have a number of implications. First, the families of the hostages are fully behind the government destroying Hamas; therefore, they will come to realize that conducting protests to demand the Israeli government’s release of the hostages will not be effective, based on the Hamas statements. Second, Israel will be under much less pressure from its citizens to see that Hamas releases the hostages, and Israel will be able to focus fully on taking out Hamas.
Finally, I have begun to wonder how the Hamas belief in martyrdom will factor in to all these issues. Hamas and Islam glorify martyrdom: dying “for the cause,” through the act of jihad, is considered to be a great honor. Will Hamas—if and when it realizes that it cannot win the war—yield to the inevitability of martyrdom? Will that decision allow them to die as exalted warriors? And the Palestinians, who we are told are starving (although it’s unclear how much of their supplies are being taken by Hamas or whether they are simply not receiving enough overall sustenance), could experience a famine: Will Hamas tell the people that this is another type of martyrdom and they should embrace death? Will the Palestinians believe them?
All said, no matter what pressure the U.S. tries to exert on Israel, the war will not be over any time soon.
Discussion (23)
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The calls for martyrdom would perhaps be more persuasive if delivered by leaders on the front line and not by thieving billionaire cheerleaders 1,000 miles away.
The depravity of kindergarten school plays about martyrdom and killing Jews may have a formative effect on Palestinians. They have an unfailing ability to select incredibly bad leaders and toss away opportunities for a better life. There is a uniform societal endorsement of largely pointless violence that invariably results in costly pushbacks and worsening living conditions. Their fellow Arabs may cheer Gazan attacks but none want any Palestinians living among them. It is a repellent culture.
Hamas may have succeeded in bringing about a Gotterdamerung so bad that Gazans will be unable to let go of the hatred that imprisons them and recommit to insanity. Critical self-examination is not a strong suit for Muslims in general and Palestinians in particular.
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They have pursued this violent and disgusting play acting for a very long time, so the children are well-conditioned. It begs the question about whether we should be trying to save the Gazan children or not.
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And the IDF will have to continue the grim work of punching Hamas’ tickets to Valhalla.
Long lasting peace requires the unflinching will to utterly defeat the enemy. Humans have forgotten this lesson from WWII and this is why we have so many lingering, unresolved conflicts spanning generations.
I wish the administration were unambiguous in its support, stop being weenies and not worry about getting votes from Dearborn.
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You and me, both!
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It's horrible that it took so much death and destruction to get Germany and Japan to surrender, but that's what it took. Trying to cut peace deals with fanatical regimes is only going to get you peace for a short while, then the war will be back on.
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