Don’t California Virginia

I’ve not been a fan of states like Texas, North Carolina, Illinois, or California engaging in mid-decade reapportionment of congressional districts, especially for partisan purposes. Making seats “safer” and less competitive is not good for Democracy™. It results in the election of more Marjorie Taylor Greenes and Jasmine Crocketts than the serious legislators we need. It further insulates lawmakers from the people they represent and exacerbates political polarization.

It’s true that the Trump White House pressured Texas—and continues to pressure other GOP states—to redraw their congressional (but not state legislative) districts. They’re putting massive pressure on Indiana to follow the lead of Missouri, North Carolina, and Texas and eliminate Democratic congressional seats to improve the GOP's chances of keeping control of the House in the 2026 elections. Utah has also reapportioned its US House seats, but under court order (it may help add a Democratic seat, but we’ll see).

A pending Supreme Court case, Louisiana v. Callais, may strike down one of the state’s congressional districts as a racial gerrymander in violation of the 14th Amendment’s Equal Protection Clause. If the court rules that way, Louisiana and Alabama (which were forced to gerrymander to create a new Democratic-majority-minority district) might redraw those lines in a way that could benefit the GOP.

I don’t like it, but it’s hard to blame Trump and the GOP after what Democrats have done in past years in places like California, and especially Illinois. I wrote about it here. The GOP didn’t start the fire, but fighting fire with fire is also not a good long-term strategy and further stokes the Outrage Machine™. Nothing like burning down the village to save it, I suppose.

In fairness to Texas, the Biden Justice Department filed suit against Texas in late 2021 over its post-2020 decennial census reapportionment, alleging a violation of the Voting Rights Act. Texas has responded, but not quite as Democrats envisioned. They may wind up with as many as five new GOP House members from the Lone Star State (again, we will see).

Polling shows that Americans don’t like partisan power grabs through mid-term redistricting. But enough for it to influence their votes in 2026? Polls show that voters’ top concerns remain affordability and the economy, with immigration, crime, drugs, and health care in hot pursuit. It’s good to see the national debt and budget deficits rising as a concern.

But the newest state to enter the redistricting wars is the Commonwealth of Virginia. Late last week, Democratic House Speaker Don Scott (D-Portsmouth) called the House back into session on Monday at 4 p.m. for the purpose of redrawing congressional seats. He’s been assured that the Democratic Senate will follow up shortly.

This, despite 66 percent of Virginia voters approving a constitutional amendment in 2020 to establish a bipartisan redistricting commission to draw districts. Every jurisdiction but one—the uber-lefty DC suburb of Arlington—voted overwhelmingly in favor. When the commission deadlocked on maps in 2021, the Virginia Supreme Court stepped in, as the new law provided. They appointed two “special masters” to draw districts, including Bernard Gronfman for the Democrats and Sean Trende, a legendary political analyst and writer at RealClearPolitics.com, for the Republicans.

But with just days before a highly competitive election for the Commonwealth’s three statewide offices - governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general - and the election of all 100 House of Delegates seats, the Democrats are wading into the redistricting fight. Virginia’s 40 state senate seats, each featuring four-year terms, will be up in 2027 along with all two-year House of Delegates seats.

So why are Democrats suddenly doing this? They argue, of course, that it is in response to Donald Trump (I could stop there; being against Trump is their only message thus far in his election) and his pressure on GOP states to eliminate Democratic US House seats elsewhere. But why didn’t they respond earlier, especially while they were in session? Why now?

I have a theory: to change the subject. Polls that once favored the Democratic ticket to sweep back into power have suddenly tightened amid a horrible October for Democrats, especially Attorney General Jay Jones. You remember that he mused to a Republican House Delegate, Carrie Coyner, about putting two bullets into the head of then-House Speaker and Republican Todd Gilbert. He then mused about Gilbert’s two sons dying in his wife’s arms. He went further by claiming that dead cops at least wouldn’t kill as many people.

I have a second theory: early voting trends suggest that Democrats are less enthusiastic than Republican voters. They are desperate to gin up their base with a surprisingly lackluster Democratic nominee in Abigail Spanberger, an invisible and nondescript lieutenant governor nominee in Ghazala Hashmi, and badly damaged goods in Attorney General nominee Jones. The 23-day-old government “shutdown” isn’t working politically as they hoped.

I don’t see this new gambit further motivating the crazies in their base. I definitely see it offending more moderate suburban voters, the kind that helped the popular Glenn Youngkin win four years ago.

And the six-foot-five-inch Youngkin has jumped into the election with both feet, no doubt seeking to preserve and build on his ample legacy. He hasn’t hesitated to attack the entire Democratic ticket and seems to be blistering the airwaves more than Winsome Sears, short of advertising.

Under Virginia’s new constitutional provision, Gov. Youngkin cannot sign or veto any map produced by Virginia’s legislative Democrats. Since it further amends the constitution, it will have to be approved by the current legislature and the new one early next year (two consecutive sessions). And any map they approve will have to go before voters within 90 days if they succeed in enacting new maps.

Virginia Democrats are no doubt enticed by new polling showing a similar California Democratic power grab, Proposition 50, which would overturn their own constitutional provision on independent redistricting and produce very partisan new maps designed to eliminate about 4 GOP seats. The poll results show the measure winning handily. For all their blather about defending an independent commission proposed and promoted by former Gov. Arnold Schwarzegger and former GOP House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), they’ve been AWOL.

But Virginia ain’t California, and I’m looking forward to my “Don’t California Virginia” signs and stickers (I’d prefer “Don’t Californicate Virginia,” but that’s probably a little too family unfriendly). Gov. Youngkin has already been feverishly working to untangle the Commonwealth from California’s clear air standards, something his predecessor, Democrat Ralph Northam, signed into law in 2021. The California standards require 100% of new cars sold to be electric vehicles starting in 2035, meaning the sale of new gas-powered cars would be gradually phased out over the next decade. Neighboring state auto dealers are salivating, especially in West Virginia.

The air is just fine here in Virginia, thank you very much, and we have other fish to fry, including how to power hundreds of new, electricity-hungry data centers scheduled to come online in the next few years. Going to 100-percent electric vehicles won’t help, especially when our utility bills are already skyrocketing. Twenty-five percent of Virginia's electric power goes to data centers, the highest in the nation.

As I said previously, Jones belongs in a psychiatrist’s office, not a public office. And the polls show him now losing to incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares, and helping drag down the rest of the ticket with him. Jones has not only refused to withdraw (he did apologize), but Virginia Democrats continue to stand by their man. In fairness, there was no way to remove Jones from the ballot once early voting began on September 19th. But if he withdrew and still won, the seat would be declared vacant and a special election held.

But was this really the way to change the subject, by assaulting a constitutional provision overwhelmingly approved by voters just five years ago, and when an overwhelming percentage of voters strongly oppose partisan redistricting?

Frankly, this move strikes me as politically stupid. At a minimum, it’s risky and reeks of desperation.

GOP gubernatorial nominee and Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears attacked the move as trying to take her off the campaign trail in the election’s waning days. But please, throw me in that briar patch. As Lt. Governor, she would chair the State Senate’s deliberations, with the spotlight on her vigorous defense and promotion of a popular constitutional amendment when partisan redistricting is very unpopular with most voters.

The partisan redistricting battles elsewhere have already divided Republicans in some states. Former Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels opined against redrawing congressional lines in his heavily GOP state.

I have kept almost entirely quiet about matters of partisan politics ever since leaving elective office more than a dozen years ago. But watching the national drive to redraw congressional district lines mid-decade prompts a temporary departure from my bleacher seat. My home state of Indiana is on the national Republican target list for new lines, as part of the quest to ensure continued control of the House. While the outcome sought is one I support, the tactic being employed to get there is not, and I hope earnestly that my state’s leaders will politely decline to participate.

This move might actually make partisan redistricting a factor as Virginians who haven’t voted yet cast their ballots. It unifies and motivates Republicans, could divide Democrats, appeal to independent swing voters, and puts Lt. Gov. Sears in the catbird seat. At the same time, Virginia Democrats would appear to engage in an unpopular power grab in Richmond right before Election Day. But sure, get those crazed, purple-haired Karens from Arlington to the polls, Democrats (apologies to normal women named Karen).

Maybe their gambit will work. Maybe anti-Trumpism trumps partisan Democratic power grabs to cover for a badly flawed and wounded ticket in a blue state. I don’t think so.

Yes, Speaker Don Scott, please toss Winsome Sears into that briar patch.

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