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Jeb Bush Is in (Kind of). What Think?
Well it’s now official… sort of. Jeb Bush is thinking about running for President. From Scott Conroy, writing at RealClearPolitics:
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush announced on Tuesday that he will form a political action committee as a vessel to explore a 2016 White House run. The announcement, which came via a Facebook post, is the first significant step by a prospective top-tier candidate for the Republican nomination and will put pressure on other potential GOP contenders to follow suit, perhaps more quickly than they may have liked.
For those of you who’ve forgotten the rules of presidential kabuki in the blessed lull between races, this is tantamount to an announcement (it’s essentially a way to get two separate runs in the press — one for the trial balloon, one for the actual declaration). Thus, for the seventh time in the last 10 presidential cycles, a member of the Bush family is going to be in the middle of the race.
I’m probably a good deal more surprised than most of you reading. There were any number of perfectly legitimate reasons — the length of time since he has last held office (it’ll be a decade once 2016 rolls around); the slightly unseemly whiff of dynastic succession; the invasive scrutiny that will be applied to his family; the lingering conservative resentment of his brother’s presidency — that could have kept Jeb out of this race.
I’ve always thought that his prospects of becoming president went up in smoke 20 years ago, when he narrowly lost the 1994 Florida governor’s race to Lawton Chiles, thus removing him from contention for 2000 and opening the door to his brother’s presidency, which will still loom large — perhaps terminally so — over his own bid. At some level I always pegged Jeb as someone who might have had the clarity and dispassion to simply accept that the stars were never going to align in his favor. Why I thought I could bet against a politician’s ambition I can’t quite explain.
There’s a lot to like about Jeb. He’s very bright, very policy-savvy, and — cries of establishment RINO notwithstanding — a lot more conversant with the conservative movement than either his father or his brother. He compiled an outstanding record as the pretty conservative governor of a swing state. Moreover, he seems to have thought about foreign policy in more depth than most of the other potential candidates in the GOP field. He’d probably be a very able president and I can’t imagine having any serious misgivings about supporting him should he get the nomination.
Would I vote for him in the primaries? Probably not. Like a lot of you, I suspect, I’m not especially comfortable with Jeb’s views on immigration (the universe of options I’m willing to consider on that front would grow dramatically once we had a reliably secure border — but that has to come first). I’m also put off by his position on Common Core, an issue that strikes me as an acid test of which Republicans can be seduced by the technocratic impulse.
Beyond the substance, there’s also a sense in which Jeb just seems like an anachronism. Virtually all the energy and vitality in the Republican Party during the Obama years has come from a younger, innovative generation of conservatives in Congress and the states. Are we really going to have that GOP led by a sixty-something pol who’s been around for two decades and represents the most shopworn brand in the party?
My take: if Jeb was going to make a bid, he should’ve chosen 2012, when he would’ve stood head and shoulders above a weak Republican field. The competition will be a lot more severe this year. Jeb probably ends up parrying with Chris Christie for pride of place on the “establishment” side of the field — and my guess would be that Christie wins that duel. Also, if Jeb did get the nomination, the prospect of a Bush v. Clinton election would leave the door wide open for a serious presidential bid from a third candidate.
How about you? Anyone immediately onboard the Jeb bandwagon? Willing to consider him as a second or third choice? Pegging him as an “under no circumstances” candidate? And — quite apart from the question of whether you would vote for him — how would you rate his potential chances at getting the nomination?
Published in General
No. Way.
I would hesitate to say, “under no circumstances.” After all, I voted for McCain.
On the other hand, he would be somewhere around #20 on my list of favored candidates. And that feeling is not, really, personal. It’s just that there is no way the country is going to vote in another Bush right now, and we need to win this election.
Frankly, I think it speaks very poorly of his character that he would even go this far. He must think, “In these dire times, the country needs me!”
Um, no. No it doesn’t, Jeb.
We’ve seen what a complete lack of self-awareness and an overweening ego look like for the last six years, and it ain’t pretty!
The Bushes have a generation to go before the family name is redeemed, if then. That Jeb doesn’t know it is… stunning.
Does that answer your question? He’s got zero chance.
I’m reminded of a line from a late ’80’s radio commercial here in Denver. “I’d rather listen to a dog puke!”
I’d vote for a plague-bearing marmot before I’ll vote for another Bush. We’ve only had 1 Clinton, after all.
No way, Jose. And for a very specific reason.
Nobody in the Bush family – Bush pere called it “the vision thing” – understands polemics and the significance of polemics in the conservative cause. The MSM carries the polemical argument for the Dems, and in any case the Lib polemical argument is simple – “we want to help people” or “we want to help PEOPLE.”
In this area, W. Bush was dead the day he came up with “compassionate conservative.” I get it that it may have been the key to him winning two(!) elections, but from a polemical point of view, it was incredibly destructive to the conservative idea. We conservatives know that conservatism IS compassionate. “Compassionate conservatism” put that way is Liberalism. And that is why Bush’s polemical image is so squishy. He handled 9/11 well and did OK on the War on Terror, but he piled a lot of baggage on even that: (1) the religion of peace; (2) the deplorable cluelessness about conditions on the ground in Iraq after our initial victory; (3) the unwillingness to engage the Dems in debate on his actions that they characterized as treasonous. You can only remain “above the battle” of ideas if someone else is fighting it for you.
The Bush’s don’t realize that they grew up rich. Not in money, although they had plenty. But in support for the American Idea, the American Narrative. They have drawn down on that account – the purpose of the country that those of us of a certain age were taught in Junior High. That account is empty. It has to be refilled. Newt was refilling it when he was brought down by his colleagues in the House. But nobody else in public life has been doing it for our side. McCain and Romney were as clueless about the need to MAKE THE CASE in public as Bush pere et fils. Jeb is totally in that tradition. He thinks policy is enough. It ain’t. It has to have a rhetorical, a polemical predicate. And that predicate has to be delivered over the opposition of the MSM. Let’s not whine about it, that is just the state of play.
The only one now in the field on our side who can do that is Allen West. He is not completely housebroken, so the MSM can paint him as a wild man, as apparently happened in Florida. Me? I would take that chance. Why? Because the electable guy on the conservative side is unelectable. And because a Romney or a Bush doesn’t see the need to make the case to the public, I am not convinced that they would be that effective IN office.
So, Jeb? No, no and no. The conservative polemical account is empty. As Rush has pointed out, the Repubs won this time because everybody hates what Obama is doing. But if the Repubs don’t give the public a reason to be FOR us, that animosity will fade and being nice to our enemies and destroying the black family with more welfare will regain ascendance.
I know a lot of people think as Mr. Senik does that Jeb is the best of the Bush bunch. Not enough. Aside from the fact that he likes Common Core which by itself is a disqualifier.
My first thought about Jeb’s Facebook announcement was:
My next thought was: Eh, it could be worse. Jeb Bush will be setting the bar, now let’s see if we can find someone better.
Tangential note: as I write, he has fewer than 5000 likes on Facebook. Sarah Palin, an admirable if unserious person, got more than 30,000 likes for her last picture.
If Jeb is the nominee expect an Exodus.
The threat of a third party run hadn’t yet come to mind; thanks, Troy.
Charles C. W. Cooke articulates my strong reservations better than I ever could. How can we continue to correct the narrative of “Republicans=old, elite, out of touch” and project the narrative of “Republicans=young, diverse, and dynamic” with another Bush on the ticket?
Given the youth, depth, dynamism, and strength of the Republican bench (Walker, Rubio, Rand, Haley, Jindal, et al), why would we sign Jeb???
Nominating Jeb would be the political equivalent of signing Brett Favre.
I think the Bush name will be a handicap in the general election.
I’m on board with Bush 45. After all who could bring out those white,blue collar voters in Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania better than a manager of a private equity firm?
I basically agree with this, except that if Bush were the nominee, my vote for him would be merely a vote against the Democrat.
Passing over the highly qualified conservative candidates and nominating Bush would be irrefutable proof that the GOP really doesn’t wish to begin moving the country in a conservative direction. I have no doubt that conservative Republicans would break away from the GOP and have a strong new party up and running by 2020.
Mike Murphy is his advisor.
That calumny will not stand.
EDIT: The only positive that I can envision from this is that it flips the script on the establishment by splitting their influence between a Bush and a Christie. That means if conservatives get behind Gov. Walker now we can beat them back.
Mike Murphy… Really Jeb? The Grim Reaper of Republican presidential candidacies? The Geraldo Rivera of the right? Gross.
The question is, is it possible to win the GOP nomination while alienating (that’s the polite word for it) Tea Party conservatives which he’s already done with his stance on Common Core and amnesty? The reaction on a lot of conservative sites since Jeb announced that he’s exploring the idea ain’t pretty. I realize that’s anecdotal and not empirical but I just don’t see how he doesn’t get eviscerated in the primary process.
He might be well advised to brush up on some Common Core math problems because if he’s tossed one during a debate and can’t answer it “correctly” (per Common Core’s Rube Goldbergian method) he runs the risk of looking like a buffoon.
Thus far, he’s been interviewed by overly-polite and sympathetic commentators. But it’s going to get ugly out there.
Back in 2000 I complained that the wrong Bush was running. At the time, Jeb was the star of the family, outshining both his dad and brother. But, as you said, now he’s an anachronism. He is woefully out-of-step with today’s Republican party and spends most of his time chastising his party instead of its opponents. He represents a step back when the vast majority of Americans want to move forward (and not in the Obama sense of the word). Few believe our problems will be solved by a competent manager administrating U.S. decline. We need a big vision and bigger solutions if we have any chance to right the ship of state.
We get good governance from the Bushes. I might disagree with their policies but they execute their policies well.
I do not favor Jeb because he is pro-amnesty.
That said, in the general I will be voting for the GOP candidate. Even if it is Jeb.
The sheer audacity of sticking his finger in the eye of conservatives with the choice of Murphy is stunning.
I will fight his nomination tooth and nail for that alone.
1. His major domestic issue is education which should not be a federal responsibility. The continued push by the Bush family on this not only demonstrates constitutional ignorance but political naivete since the Federal agencies are run by their full time Democratic employees. No matter what you do they will bend laws and regulations to their own purposes. Every new program that R’s add, no matter how well intended, will ultimately be weaponized and turned against the American people. When will we learn?
2. He’s on the Board of Directors of the Michael Bloomberg Foundation. Yeah, that guy. On the bright side I guess it’ll burnish his bipartisan credentials with the MSM during the nominating season though if he gets the nomination they’ll turn on him in a second and we’ll be hearing everyday that Jeb is really a right-wing nut job (they did the same move with McCain).
3. Mike Murphy!!??!!
May his candidacy go down in flames, is all I can say.
May he first take the wind out of Romney’s sails, and Chris Christie’s, and then may he be soundly defeated by a genuine conservative ready and willing to fight the good fight.
I’m banking on Pence, Walker or Jindal.
Again, with the Bushes. I’m quite confident we’d get a slightly reduced rate of growth in gov’t spending under Bush, as compared to, say, Hillary, if Jeb was elected.
He’s not what we need. He’s almost the opposite of what we need. We need an iconoclast. Someone who will be willing, and able, to tear down both the idea of government as some sort of paternalistic saviour and the actual infrastructure of the federal bureaucracies.
The bureaucracy needs to be dismantled. It’s what rules us now, in our homes, in our yards, in our finances, in our health care, and virtually none of it is put in power by a vote. It’s put into power by a job req posted on a gov’t website.
Interestingly, the website that hires new federal employees seems to work just fine. That tells you something large and important, doesn’t it?
Sincerely,
Christo McCracken
I would like to see a member of the Bush family get a job opening boxes, not running for president. It would be the first time a member of that family engaged in such an activity since they unpacked the Mayflower.
Nomination chance….25 percent.
General election chance. … 1 percent. It’s unfair, but the W legacy will be impossible to overcome.
If his object is to be the next Secretary of the Interior, then I think it is a brilliant idea.
Interesting. If I understand you right, you’re saying that the Republicans should nominate someone who can actually lead.
That’s really thinking outside the box, but it might work.
Amazes me how this narrative of Jeb as an uber smart conservative policy wonk gets perpetuated.
What’s the most conservative thing he has said or policy he has proposed in the last five years? I admit I haven’t read his book (hardly anyone did). Is it a policy manifesto on limited government?
Jeb hangs around with Bloomberg and the Clintons and Wall St. executives. He is quintessential ruling class elite.
I predict his faux-intellectual posturing will be exposed in debates. If his recent CPAC speech was any indicator, he will not do well.
Yep. It always amazed me how bad Bush 43 and his team were in articulating the reasons and vision behind his policies. He could not persuade anyone who did not already agree with him. It was frustrating when I found that I could make better arguments in favor of Bush policies I disagreed with than those being made by the Administration.
And Mike Murphy.
I would vote for Mickey Mouse before I would vote for another Bush.
Yes. And also he’s pro-life.
– Olive the one-issue voter
Being pro-amnesty is a deal-breaker for me. Jeff Sessions for President.
I don’t have any bitter hatred for the guy. But I’m holding out for someone better.
By better, I mean a candidate who I don’t have to worry about; someone who I know will oppose big government solutions (Common Core) instead of trying to water them down a little while accepting them in principle. I don’t have that confidence in Jeb.