Rebroadcast: Immigration Shifts Political Power

The Trump administration’s proposed changes to the residence criteria for the 2030 Census have brought new attention to a question examined by the Center for Immigration Studies two years ago: How does immigration affect political representation even when immigrants do not vote?

In response, the Center is rebroadcasting Parsing Immigration Policy Episode 178, “Immigration Shifts Political Power,” originally released in October 2024. The episode features Steven Camarota, Director of Research, discussing two studies released by the Center examining how immigration affects the distribution of political power.

Under the current system, House seats and Electoral College votes are apportioned among the states based on total population. The Census Bureau’s proposed residence criteria for the 2030 Census would exclude illegal immigrants and long-term temporary visitors from the Census count, which is used to apportion seats in the House of Representatives.

The two CIS studies examined:

• House seats and Electoral College votes: “Tilting the Balance” estimated that immigration affected the distribution of 17 House seats in the 2020 Census, with a net gain of 14 seats for Democratic-leaning states.
• Representation within congressional districts: “How Non-Citizens Impact Political Representation and the Partisan Makeup of the U.S. House” examined how differences in non-citizen populations affect the distribution of representation among districts.

“Because of the way reapportionment and redistricting work, immigration, including illegal immigration, redistributes political power in Washington,” said Camarota, the lead author of both studies. “This redistribution is directly proportional to the scale of legal and illegal immigration and exists independent of whether or how immigrants themselves vote.”

Host

Mark Krikorian is the Executive Director of the Center for Immigration Studies.

Guest

Steven Camarota is the Director of Research at the Center for Immigration Studies.

Links

Proposed Residence Criteria and Proposed Regulations for Demographic Questions

Estimating the impact of legal and illegal immigration on apportionment and political influence in the U.S. House and Electoral College

How Non-Citizens Impact Political Representation and the Partisan Makeup of the U.S. House of Representatives

How Many Non-Citizens Would Have to Vote to Affect the 2024 Presidential Election?

Tilting the Balance

Intro Montage

Voices in the opening montage:

• Sen. Barack Obama at a 2005 press conference.
• Sen. John McCain in a 2010 election ad.
• President Lyndon Johnson, upon signing the 1965 Immigration Act.
• Booker T. Washington, reading in 1908 from his 1895 Atlanta Exposition speech.
• Laraine Newman as a "Conehead" on SNL in 1977.
• Hillary Clinton in a 2003 radio interview.
• Cesar Chavez in a 1974 interview.
• House Speaker Nancy Pelosi speaking to reporters in 2019.
• Prof. George Borjas in a 2016 C-SPAN appearance.
• Sen. Jeff Sessions in 2008 comments on the Senate floor.
• Candidate Trump in 2015 campaign speech.
• Charlton Heston in "Planet of the Apes".