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S15 EP164: Hour 3 - Wave vs Wall

Episode length: 37m

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Erick takes a caller's tale of two Georgia ad campaigns, Rick Jackson's brutal and effective spots against Keisha Lance Bottoms versus the One Nation tax ads carrying Mike Collins against Jon Ossoff, and turns it into the central question of the 2026 midterms: a blue wave is coming, but is the red wall the GOP built taller than the wave? He stakes out his own call of a 10-to-15-seat Democratic House pickup with the Senate holding, walks through New Hampshire, Michigan, North Carolina, Maine, Texas, Iowa, and Kansas, and plays the Roger Marshall town hall where Republicans in the crowd, not just the progressive hecklers, start booing the moment he defends tariffs. In the back half he digs into the ProPublica report that a Russian oligarch quietly bankrolled Donald Trump Jr.'s wedding, then explains in plain language why a $5,000 tariff dividend check would pour fuel on inflation right as the Federal Reserve decides whether to raise interest rates.

  • The Georgia ad war: Rick Jackson defining Keisha Lance Bottoms on crime while she has no money to answer, the One Nation $2,100 tax increase ad against Jon Ossoff, why the Mike Collins makeup attack is political malpractice, and the Trafalgar poll showing Ossoff up 49 to 43
  • Blue wave versus red wall: Erick's 10-to-15-seat House call against Mark Halperin's 25, why the Senate map still favors Republicans in New Hampshire, Michigan, Iowa, Alaska, Nebraska, and Florida, and what a Democratic Senate would mean for JD Vance in 2028
  • Roger Marshall gets booed in Kansas by his own voters over tariffs, JD Vance campaigning in a state Republicans should not have to defend, the Real Clear Politics average showing a 50-50 Senate, and the 6.7-point Democratic generic ballot lead
  • ProPublica reports Russian oligarch Umar Kremlev secretly bankrolled Donald Trump Jr.'s wedding; Eric Trump says he has no idea who the man is, and why Erick still rejects the Russian stooge theory while calling this an unforced gift to Democrats
  • Affordability is the number one issue: data center construction propping up the economy while driving concrete, aluminum, and chip prices up, the 50% tariff on Canadian lumber, nine straight months of wages trailing inflation, and why Erick says the $5,000 check is a Diocletian-style mistake the Federal Reserve will have to clean up
Host:
Erick Erickson