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Erick opens by explaining why the Iran war cannot be negotiated like a normal conflict: the Islamic Republic's Mahdiism means the Ayatollahs believe they must bring about the apocalypse. He then walks through Brett McGurk's argument that Iran is actually losing its leverage in the Strait of Hormuz, with oil flows back to two-thirds of pre-war levels and Iran's economy contracting more than 5 percent. The hour turns on the Washington Post leak of the Secretary of Defense orders, in which Pete Hegseth was told by the Navy, European Command, Pacific Command and Southern Command that a prolonged Iran deployment could not be sustained—Erick believes the leak is a 2028 hit job aimed at Hegseth from inside JD Vance's orbit.
- Mahdiism explained: why Iran's rational belief in the apocalypse makes negotiation impossible
- Brett McGurk on the Strait of Hormuz blockade working, oil flows recovering, Iran's economy contracting more than 5 percent with 70 percent inflation
- The Washington Post orders book leak: Admiral Daryl Caudle says only one fourth of the Navy's destroyer fleet is ready to deploy
- Three leaks in a row (Patriot missiles, surface-to-surface missiles, the non-concur) and how Iran reads American weakness
- Erick's 2028 read: JD Vance's team, Pete Hegseth eyeing a run, and a White House source insisting the leakers are civilians, not the military
- Scottie Scheffler wins at East Lake, and why Trump cannot remove a sitting vice president
Erick Erickson