Closing Arguments

This is it, folks — the last Ricochet Podcast prior to the 2020 election. What a long strange trip it’s been (no, that is not the closing song, but we thought about it). To wrap this election season up, we give you another in a series of spirited debates between The Founders® –that’s Peter Robinson and Rob Long for you newbies– in which James Lileks once again tries to be moderator/peacemaker. We’ll let you tell us who persuaded you and who didn’t. Then we call upon two of our most reliable prognosticators to help us sort through the end of this cycle. First up, Byron York (listen to his podcast, The Byron York Show, right here on this very audio network) live from what looks to be the fulcrum of this Presidential election — the political hot zone known as Pennsylvania. Lots of anecdotes, stats, and informed hunches related in this segment. Then, Luke Thompson aka the Smartest Political Consultant We Know joins to parse the polls, preview the key House and the Senate races and generally impart electoral wisdom. We’ve got a new Lileks Post of The Week courtesy of Ricochet Member Preston Storm (and a rare cameo appearance from a low level Ricochet employee who can’t seem to push a button when required). Finally (and we do mean finally), we wrap things up with some predictions from our hosts. Leave yours in the comments. And don’t forget to vote!

Music from this week’s show: Que Sera Sera by Sly and The Family Stone

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  1. kedavis Member

    So even after parts of Minneapolis have burned, they still won’t get away from voting for the people who support all of that?

    Now THAT’S stubborn. And stupid. And maybe a few other adjectives.

    • #1
    • October 30, 2020, at 2:26 PM PDT
    • 11 likes
  2. kedavis Member

    Many people, including Rob and perhaps James, misunderstand implications of basically happening to guess correctly.

    Even if Rob is “correct” about who wins next week (if that is even determined by the end of next week), that won’t prove that he was correct about the REASONS for it.

    And Rob is probably wrong about what Republicans should “learn” from a loss next week. Since the most likely reason for at least enough to account for it, is dishonest media, how would Rob suggest that Republicans “deal with” that? No matter who they nominate in the future will be labeled as “literally Hitler.”

    • #2
    • October 30, 2020, at 2:34 PM PDT
    • 11 likes
  3. MISTER BITCOIN Member

    Trump and Lewis will win MN

     

    • #3
    • October 30, 2020, at 3:02 PM PDT
    • 4 likes
  4. MISTER BITCOIN Member

    My prediction: Trump will win 34 states and also popular vote

     

    • #4
    • October 30, 2020, at 3:03 PM PDT
    • 2 likes
  5. kedavis Member

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    My prediction: Trump will win 34 states and also popular vote

     

    That would be so great!

    • #5
    • October 30, 2020, at 3:05 PM PDT
    • 2 likes
  6. Fourth The Sixth Listener

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    My prediction: Trump will win 34 states and also popular vote

     

    What makes you think that?

    • #6
    • October 30, 2020, at 3:14 PM PDT
    • 1 like
  7. ToryWarWriter Thatcher

    If MN is so safe for Biden why is he campaigning there today?

    • #7
    • October 30, 2020, at 3:29 PM PDT
    • 5 likes
  8. Bishop Wash Member

    ToryWarWriter (View Comment):

    If MN is so safe for Biden why is he campaigning there today?

    He’s supposedly up by 20 in Michigan and he and Barry will be campaigning there 

    • #8
    • October 30, 2020, at 3:51 PM PDT
    • 2 likes
  9. DrewInWisconsin, Man of Consta… Coolidge

    Bishop Wash (View Comment):

    ToryWarWriter (View Comment):

    If MN is so safe for Biden why is he campaigning there today?

    He’s supposedly up by 20 in Michigan and he and Barry will be campaigning there

    He’s supposedly up by 17 in Wisconsin and he visited here today.

    Hmm. So maybe not?

    • #9
    • October 30, 2020, at 5:25 PM PDT
    • 4 likes
  10. JuliaBlaschke Coolidge

    I think Biden will win. I hope and pray we can hold onto the Senate.

    • #10
    • October 30, 2020, at 7:01 PM PDT
    • 3 likes
  11. MISTER BITCOIN Member

    Fourth The Sixth (View Comment):

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    My prediction: Trump will win 34 states and also popular vote

     

    What makes you think that?

    Fracking, oil, natural gas

    NM, CO are fracking states

    MN, NH … Trump almost won these two in 2016

    NV … Hispanic vote and economy… which industries were killed by lockdown? travel, hospitality and restaurants… Trump will do better in Reno and Vegas 

    I think he will lose PA because of voter fraud in Philadelphia

     

    • #11
    • October 30, 2020, at 8:45 PM PDT
    • Like
  12. MISTER BITCOIN Member

    JuliaBlaschke (View Comment):

    I think Biden will win. I hope and pray we can hold onto the Senate.

    Which states do you think Biden will flip from 2016?

     

    • #12
    • October 30, 2020, at 8:48 PM PDT
    • Like
  13. MISTER BITCOIN Member

    Fourth The Sixth (View Comment):

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    My prediction: Trump will win 34 states and also popular vote

     

    What makes you think that?

    What is a “Listener”?

     

    • #13
    • October 30, 2020, at 8:50 PM PDT
    • Like
  14. Django Member

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Many people, including Rob and perhaps James, misunderstand implications of basically happening to guess correctly.

    Even if Rob is “correct” about who wins next week (if that is even determined by the end of next week), that won’t prove that he was correct about the REASONS for it.

    And Rob is probably wrong about what Republicans should “learn” from a loss next week. Since the most likely reason for at least enough to account for it, is dishonest media, how would Rob suggest that Republicans “deal with” that? No matter who they nominate in the future will be labeled as “literally Hitler.”

    I’m trying to work out what is says about the electorate if Biden/Harris win. So far, I haven’t come up with anything good. 

    • #14
    • October 30, 2020, at 10:26 PM PDT
    • 3 likes
  15. kedavis Member

    Django (View Comment):
    I’m trying to work out what is says about the electorate if Biden/Harris win. So far, I haven’t come up with anything good. 

    But at least in some cases, the poor dears just can’t help themselves. They’re being given nothing but lies from the “mainstream media.”

    • #15
    • October 30, 2020, at 11:40 PM PDT
    • 1 like
  16. OccupantCDN Coolidge

    I was also fooled in 2012, and lost a fair chunk betting on Romney. Its not like I hold a grudge… But between the confusing polls and your lying eyes, I believe what we see. In 2012, Romney had good rallies, but Obama was also drawing good crowds. Clinton was barely drawing high school gym crowds, while Trump was filling arenas and stadiums. Trump was a rock star, Clinton was detention. (Not the fun “Breakfast Club” kind either) Now, Biden is drawing crowds (if you could call them that) that’s a fraction of Clinton’s.

    I believe that the odds of a Trump win are at a much higher than of a coin landing on its edge. (1 in 6000) I am its much closer, maybe a coin flip – maybe a slight favorite. But I also think the prediction is true, that if he wins, he’ll keep the senate. On a side note the American Nickle is the best coin to flip, if you want a coin to land on its edge.

    Did you see video of today’s Biden “rally” in Minnesota? He was drowned out, and out numbered by Trump supporters. It was just sad. Obama was there as well, he must have been quite embarrassed.

    • #16
    • October 31, 2020, at 12:53 AM PDT
    • 3 likes
    • This comment has been edited.
  17. RufusRJones Member

    There are actually morons that think it’s unprincipled to vote against candidates or parties instead of for an agenda. 

    • #17
    • October 31, 2020, at 5:14 AM PDT
    • 3 likes
  18. Miffed White Male Member
    Miffed White MaleJoined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Django (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Many people, including Rob and perhaps James, misunderstand implications of basically happening to guess correctly.

    Even if Rob is “correct” about who wins next week (if that is even determined by the end of next week), that won’t prove that he was correct about the REASONS for it.

    And Rob is probably wrong about what Republicans should “learn” from a loss next week. Since the most likely reason for at least enough to account for it, is dishonest media, how would Rob suggest that Republicans “deal with” that? No matter who they nominate in the future will be labeled as “literally Hitler.”

    I’m trying to work out what is says about the electorate if Biden/Harris win. So far, I haven’t come up with anything good.

    It tells you they prefer “nice” over policy they agree with.

     

    • #18
    • October 31, 2020, at 6:15 AM PDT
    • 1 like
  19. Arahant Member

    Rob could use some flame-resistant clothing.

    • #19
    • October 31, 2020, at 6:54 AM PDT
    • 1 like
  20. Wolfsheim Member

    An old American friend denies that he is a “liberal” but then lets his class identity–educated, secular, upper-middle-class professional–trump, as it were, his awareness of the current madness. To put it simply, he cannot abide even the thought of being associated with those who wear MAGA caps and/or attend a house of worship.

    Violating a taboo he has tried to impose on political discussions, I asked him what he thinks of the Hunter Biden scandal. His response:

    “If you want to talk about the ‘scandal,’ it was so flimsy that no reporter for the New York Post agreed to have his name on a byline, and the Wall Street Journal would not touch it. Is the Wall Street Journal ‘fake news’? All you have is Rudy quivering and slavering like a rabid ferret.”

    My friend is a retired diplomat, widely traveled and multilingual. Perhaps he is willfully uninformed, but the media certainly make it all so very easy to stay secure in one’s own distinctly non-vulpine bubble.

     

     

     

     

    • #20
    • October 31, 2020, at 7:04 AM PDT
    • 12 likes
  21. EHerring Coolidge

    Biden, an addled old man, and Harris, the worse candidate the Dems have garnered half the votes because pundits on both sides, not the candidates, convinced people to vote for them. If Trump loses, I will blame the punditry on our side who parade around on leftie networks trashing Trump (are they on our side?). If Democrats can carry two losers across the finish line, then surely our pundits had an easier task and chose to fail at it. I won’t blame Trump. He has put more time his past past week trying to get people to vote for him than the punditry class has the past four years. The exceptions? VDH and a few others who figured things out.

    If Biden wins, and the Democrats work to complete their “fundamental transformation,” people will remember who hated Trump. (I am not referring to the ricochet folks but those who actively worked against Trump). Having not learned anything in the last election, NR (print) looked in the mirror at itself and said “hold my beer,” for its election issue. I fear it committed suicide. NTs like Kristol won’t be welcomed back into the club. Bulwark et al will be men without a country. So will most of the media and newspapers. I gave up on them a long time ago. Winners for me….Parler, ricochet. Losers….Facebook, Twitter, for they will be ground zero of the backlash, as lefties won’t be able to control, themselves.

    If Trump wins and the Democrat street thugs riot, loot, and burn blue cities that went for Biden despite the long hot summer, we will yawn. Just send them a Darwin Award.

    Great podcast, great guests….why I am here.

    • #21
    • October 31, 2020, at 7:07 AM PDT
    • 4 likes
    • This comment has been edited.
  22. DrewInWisconsin, Man of Consta… Coolidge

    EHerring (View Comment):
    If Trump loses, I will blame the punditry on our side who parade around on leftie networks trashing Trump (are they on our side?).

    They were never on our side. It’s all been a scam.

    In 2016, I relished the Democrat tears when Hillary lost.

    In 2020, I will enjoy even more the NeverTrump tears when the President is re-elected. I couldn’t care less about Democrats crying, but the wailing from the NeverTrump Pundits will be music to my ears.

    • #22
    • October 31, 2020, at 7:11 AM PDT
    • 9 likes
  23. JuliaBlaschke Coolidge

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    JuliaBlaschke (View Comment):

    I think Biden will win. I hope and pray we can hold onto the Senate.

    Which states do you think Biden will flip from 2016?

     

    I don’t know. I just think too many people are so tired of Trump and are prepared to vote for anyone to get rid of him. They just want some peace and quiet. They won’t get it.

    Trump has gained 4 votes in my household. My daughter has already voted for Biden. She seems to accept her father and brothers voting for Trump, but she thinks I am a monster.

    • #23
    • October 31, 2020, at 7:32 AM PDT
    • 3 likes
  24. OccupantCDN Coolidge

    Arahant (View Comment):

    Rob could use some flame-resistant clothing.

    Rob really needs flame resistant rhetoric – not clothing.

    • #24
    • October 31, 2020, at 8:02 AM PDT
    • 4 likes
  25. DrewInWisconsin, Man of Consta… Coolidge

    JuliaBlaschke (View Comment):
    I just think too many people are so tired of Trump and are prepared to vote for anyone to get rid of him. They just want some peace and quiet.

    Democrats’ “peace and quiet.”

    Damage to city garbage trucks, other equipment destroyed in riots climbs to nearly $2 million | News | kenoshanews.com

    • #25
    • October 31, 2020, at 8:10 AM PDT
    • 7 likes
  26. JuliaBlaschke Coolidge

    DrewInWisconsin, Man of Consta… (View Comment):

    JuliaBlaschke (View Comment):
    I just think too many people are so tired of Trump and are prepared to vote for anyone to get rid of him. They just want some peace and quiet.

    Democrats’ “peace and quiet.”

    Damage to city garbage trucks, other equipment destroyed in riots climbs to nearly $2 million | News | kenoshanews.com

    Oh, I know.

    • #26
    • October 31, 2020, at 8:15 AM PDT
    • 5 likes
  27. rdowhower Inactive

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    Trump and Lewis will win MN

     

    I sure hope you’re right. Union guy up the street from me in our first ring Saint Paul suburb just put out his Trump sign. Also even seen a few Lewis signs but strangely enough they all look damaged. Must have just been the wind.

    • #27
    • October 31, 2020, at 9:37 AM PDT
    • 2 likes
  28. rdowhower Inactive

    Whenever Roberta claims to have talked to some “Republicans” rest assured he means his GLOP buddies Jonah and John. They hardly count as Republicans anymore. Also funny, or not, to hear him talk of Trump as a “cancer” in the party when something in the neighborhood of 95% party members approve of him. Thanks for the analysis, Mr. Coastal Elite Suburban Housewife.

    • #28
    • October 31, 2020, at 9:39 AM PDT
    • 3 likes
  29. mildlyo Member
    mildlyoJoined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    I think the phrase Peter was looking for is “horney-handed son of toil”

    • #29
    • October 31, 2020, at 10:05 AM PDT
    • 1 like
  30. Django Member

    As long as electoral fantasies are being discussed, here’s mine. 

    Biden wins and withdraws three months in having fulfilled his fantasy of being Prez. Headboard Harris ruins the country and in the mid-terms the GOP re-takes both House and Senate by large margins. The Constitution doesn’t specify that the Speaker of the House must be a member of Congress so Trump is elected to the position. Two impeachments later, he’s President again. 

    About as likely as SMOD showing up at the swearing in ceremony in January, but I’d enjoy it immensely. 

    • #30
    • October 31, 2020, at 10:14 AM PDT
    • 5 likes