Bull in a China Shop

We jet eastward and then into the ether this week, unfortunately without our pal James Lileks who’s vacationing somewhere on planet Earth. Our first guide is Elbridge Colby, who explains why we better not sleep on the Pacific theater. Then we’ve got Rich Goldberg, host of our new podcast: Cryptonite. He’s here to tell us that even a smart person like you can wrap your head around cryptocurrency.

The founders get a chance to talk about Ukraine… and that’s about it. They had too much fun with our guests and, let’s face it, Tuesday’s State of the Union address wasn’t very memorable.

Music from this week’s podcast: Bull in a China Shop by Barenaked Ladies

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There are 18 comments.

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  1. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Ricochet Audio Network: They had too much fun with our guests and, let’s face it, Tuesday’s State of the Union address wasn’t very memorable.

    Someone commented the other day, nobody will forget that SOTU address quicker than the person who gave it.

    • #1
  2. Gary Robbins Member
    Gary Robbins
    @GaryRobbins

    What a great podcast!

    • #2
  3. JennaStocker Member
    JennaStocker
    @JennaStocker

    A much needed dose of reality and rationale from both @roblong and @peterrobinson in their discerning and probing questions. I appreciate they take the time to follow lines of thought to suss out policies or actions to some ends, and allow us humble listeners to form our own conclusions rather than the typical modern commentary formula of sound-bytes masquerading as conversation, and insisting on one correct outcome. It really allows a greater depth of knowledge and understanding and Mr. Colby’s articulate reasoning lends itself to this format. His “power is a reality” and his statements about zero-sum games in this sense may prove to be crucially important as a flailing administration grasps for ways to conceal its incompetence and unpreparedness for foes who seem to be waiting to exploit it. And thanks for having on (and being a platform for) Rich Goldberg! Overall an excellent podcast – although I very much missed @jameslileks

    • #3
  4. The Cloaked Gaijin Member
    The Cloaked Gaijin
    @TheCloakedGaijin

    It is an interesting idea to say that Taiwan is worth more than Ukraine.

    Taiwan spends 1.9% of its GDP on the military and a lot apparently on stuff they don’t need.
    Ukraine is estimated to spend about ~4.1% of its GDP on the military, and its people are tough for a fight.

    Ukraine has about 1.75 times as many people as Taiwan.

    Ukraine is the largest country completely located in Europe and about 16 1/2 times larger than Taiwan.  Excluding the Kaliningrad Oblast exclave, Putin taking over Ukraine would give Moscow a free corridor to four new NATO countries — which he does not want to be in NATO: Poland, Romania, Hungary, and Slovakia.

    South Korea has more than twice as many people as Taiwan.
    Thailand has about 3 times as many people as Taiwan.
    Vietnam has about 4 times as  much people as Taiwan.
    The Philippines has almost 5 times as many people as Taiwan.
    Japan has 5 1/2 times as many people as Taiwan.
    Indonesia has almost 12 times as many people as Taiwan.

    I wonder how many of these countries would be willing to defend Taiwan or being willing to support them financially and with weapons the way that many countries in Europe are defending Ukraine?

    • #4
  5. Taras Coolidge
    Taras
    @Taras

    The Cloaked Gaijin (View Comment):

    It is an interesting idea to say that Taiwan is worth more than Ukraine.

    Taiwan spends 1.9% of its GDP on the military and a lot apparently on stuff they don’t need.
    Ukraine is estimated to spend about ~4.1% of its GDP on the military, and its people are tough for a fight.

    Ukraine has about 1.75 times as many people as Taiwan.

    Ukraine is the largest country completely located in Europe and about 16 1/2 times larger than Taiwan. Excluding the Kaliningrad Oblast exclave, Putin taking over Ukraine would give Moscow a free corridor to four new NATO countries — which he does not want to be in NATO: Poland, Romania, Hungary, and Slovakia.

    South Korea has more than twice as many people as Taiwan.
    Thailand has about 3 times as many people as Taiwan.
    Vietnam has about 4 times as much people as Taiwan.
    The Philippines has almost 5 times as many people as Taiwan.
    Japan has 5 1/2 times as many people as Taiwan.
    Indonesia has almost 12 times as many people as Taiwan.

    I wonder how many of these countries would be willing to defend Taiwan or being willing to support them financially and with weapons the way that many countries in Europe are defending Ukraine?

    If you look at a map, you immediately see that Ukraine is the “boulder blocking the mouth of the Russian bear’s cave”.

    Ukraine shields most of Eastern Europe from Putin’s loving attentions: since, obviously, he would love to recreate the system of tributary states in Eastern Europe, as well as the Russian/Soviet Empire per se.

    Attacking to the west via the northern route would, of course, put Ukraine dangerously on Russia’s flank, as I am sure his generals have told him.

    No, Ukraine has to be subjugated first.

    It’s ironic that NATO expansion is blamed for an attack on a country where NATO expansion didn’t happen (partly as a result of pandering to Russia).  If Ukraine were in NATO, it’s almost certain that this war would not be happening.

    • #5
  6. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Or if Trump were still president.

    • #6
  7. ThomasMcInerny Coolidge
    ThomasMcInerny
    @ThomasMcInerny

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Or if Trump were still president.

    Nonsense . Same dung, different slinger. Ukraine is vital. Trump is beyond imagination: or reality.

    • #7
  8. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    ThomasMcInerny (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Or if Trump were still president.

    Nonsense . Same dung, different slinger. Ukraine is vital. Trump is beyond imagination: or reality.

    You think it’s just coincidence that Putin didn’t move on Ukraine – like he previously had on Crimea and others – until Trump was replaced by Dementia Joe?

    • #8
  9. ThomasMcInerny Coolidge
    ThomasMcInerny
    @ThomasMcInerny

    kedavis (View Comment):

    ThomasMcInerny (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Or if Trump were still president.

    Nonsense . Same dung, different slinger. Ukraine is vital. Trump is beyond imagination: or reality.

    You think it’s just coincidence that Putin didn’t move on Ukraine – like he previously had on Crimea and others – until Trump was replaced by Dementia Joe?

    I think when Vlad was ready- he moved.  Trump(Goat Bleep)or Biden (Huh) are seen as minor bumps in the road. Biden in the mid-East has always been a Flashing Green Light.  John Kerry’s medals remain in mid-air, and Boy Howdy does our Navy need ships and men. Which year of the late Thirties do you like?

    • #9
  10. Wolfsheim Member
    Wolfsheim
    @Wolfsheim

    I hope that Rob Long was playing Devil’s advocate when he seemed to downplay the consequences of a PRC conquest of Taiwan…

    “South Korea has more than twice as many people as Taiwan.
    Thailand has about 3 times as many people as Taiwan.
    Vietnam has about 4 times as much people as Taiwan.
    The Philippines has almost 5 times as many people as Taiwan.
    Japan has 5 1/2 times as many people as Taiwan.
    Indonesia has almost 12 times as many people as Taiwan.

    I wonder how many of these countries would be willing to defend Taiwan or being willing to support them financially and with weapons the way that many countries in Europe are defending Ukraine?” (The Cloaked Gaijin)

    I was driving my car in northern Japan on a hot July afternoon in 1971, when I heard on the radio that Pres. Nixon would be visiting China. Japan had not been consulted, and the Japanese were stunned, though, to their credit, they were good sports about it. A little over a year later, then Prime Minister Tanaka Kakuei paid his own visit.

    The Japanese, like so much of the rest of the democratic world, have been lulled into wishful thinking about the good will of the PRC, and some politicians have allowed themselves to be compromised.  But Japan,  routinely  dismissed as too timid or too ideologically pacifist to be reliable, would surely come to Taiwan’s defense–first of all out of (fully justified) self-interest.

    The argument that the PRC’s ambitions are  limited to some sort of Sinitic cultural sphere is untenable. Conquering Taiwan would be part of a continuing effort to weaken and neutralize Japan, not just because the island nation stands in the way of Chinese hegemony but also because hatred of Japan is now a long-standing tradition.

    On another note, I was quite struck by Peter Robinson’s comment about Ronald Reagan’s recognition of the “open-endedness” of human experience. Indeed…Not long after the magnificent “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!” speech, I was in East Berlin on academic business. As much as I admired Pres. Reagan, I took it for granted that that wall would still be standing for years to come…And then? Open-endedness…

    • #10
  11. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    ThomasMcInerny (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    ThomasMcInerny (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Or if Trump were still president.

    Nonsense . Same dung, different slinger. Ukraine is vital. Trump is beyond imagination: or reality.

    You think it’s just coincidence that Putin didn’t move on Ukraine – like he previously had on Crimea and others – until Trump was replaced by Dementia Joe?

    I think when Vlad was ready- he moved. Trump(Goat Bleep)or Biden (Huh) are seen as minor bumps in the road. Biden in the mid-East has always been a Flashing Green Light. John Kerry’s medals remain in mid-air, and Boy Howdy does our Navy need ships and men. Which year of the late Thirties do you like?

    So it’s just a coincidence that Vlad was “ready” during Obama and others, but not “ready” during 4 years of Trump, until after Biden replaced him?

    • #11
  12. Taras Coolidge
    Taras
    @Taras

    kedavis (View Comment):

    ThomasMcInerny (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    ThomasMcInerny (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Or if Trump were still president.

    Nonsense . Same dung, different slinger. Ukraine is vital. Trump is beyond imagination: or reality.

    You think it’s just coincidence that Putin didn’t move on Ukraine – like he previously had on Crimea and others – until Trump was replaced by Dementia Joe?

    I think when Vlad was ready- he moved. Trump(Goat Bleep)or Biden (Huh) are seen as minor bumps in the road. Biden in the mid-East has always been a Flashing Green Light. John Kerry’s medals remain in mid-air, and Boy Howdy does our Navy need ships and men. Which year of the late Thirties do you like?

    So it’s just a coincidence that Vlad was “ready” during Obama and others, but not “ready” during 4 years of Trump, until after Biden replaced him?

    It’s an “amazing coincidence”.

    Similarly, some people insisted that when Colonel Qaddafi handed over his WMD programs two weeks after Saddam Hussein was captured, it was really the end result of “20 years of diplomacy”.

    Or, when COVID-19 broke out, it was just an amazing coincidence that, of all the many — probably  thousands — of wet markets in China, it just happened to be the one right next door to China’s only virology institute.

    Some people have a tendency to apply all their powers of mind to not seeing the obvious.

    • #12
  13. Taras Coolidge
    Taras
    @Taras

    Wolfsheim (View Comment):

    I hope that Rob Long was playing Devil’s advocate when he seemed to downplay the consequences of a PRC conquest of Taiwan…

    “South Korea has more than twice as many people as Taiwan.
    Thailand has about 3 times as many people as Taiwan.
    Vietnam has about 4 times as much people as Taiwan.
    The Philippines has almost 5 times as many people as Taiwan.
    Japan has 5 1/2 times as many people as Taiwan.
    Indonesia has almost 12 times as many people as Taiwan.

    I wonder how many of these countries would be willing to defend Taiwan or being willing to support them financially and with weapons the way that many countries in Europe are defending Ukraine?” (The Cloaked Gaijin)

    I was driving my car in northern Japan on a hot July afternoon in 1971, when I heard on the radio that Pres. Nixon would be visiting China. Japan had not been consulted, and the Japanese were stunned, though, to their credit, they were good sports about it. A little over a year later, then Prime Minister Tanaka Kakuei paid his own visit.

    The Japanese, like so much of the rest of the democratic world, have been lulled into wishful thinking about the good will of the PRC, and some politicians have allowed themselves to be compromised. But Japan, routinely dismissed as too timid or too ideologically pacifist to be reliable, would surely come to Taiwan’s defense–first of all out of (fully justified) self-interest.

    The argument that the PRC’s ambitions are limited to some sort of Sinitic cultural sphere is untenable. Conquering Taiwan would be part of a continuing effort to weaken and neutralize Japan, not just because the island nation stands in the way of Chinese hegemony but also because hatred of Japan is now a long-standing tradition.

    On another note, I was quite struck by Peter Robinson’s comment about Ronald Reagan’s recognition of the “open-endedness” of human experience. Indeed…Not long after the magnificent “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!” speech, I was in East Berlin on academic business. As much as I admired Pres. Reagan, I took it for granted that that wall would still be standing for years to come…And then? Open-endedness…

    We certainly have a moral responsibility to defend Taiwan, given that we twisted their arm to stop them from developing their own nuclear deterrent, to answer Red China’s.

    But the contrast with Ukraine is striking, because we can reinforce that country by road and rail, something we can’t do with Taiwan.  The entire Red Chinese military is designed to prevent us from reinforcing Taiwan by sea and air.

    • #13
  14. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Taras (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    ThomasMcInerny (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    ThomasMcInerny (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Or if Trump were still president.

    Nonsense . Same dung, different slinger. Ukraine is vital. Trump is beyond imagination: or reality.

    You think it’s just coincidence that Putin didn’t move on Ukraine – like he previously had on Crimea and others – until Trump was replaced by Dementia Joe?

    I think when Vlad was ready- he moved. Trump(Goat Bleep)or Biden (Huh) are seen as minor bumps in the road. Biden in the mid-East has always been a Flashing Green Light. John Kerry’s medals remain in mid-air, and Boy Howdy does our Navy need ships and men. Which year of the late Thirties do you like?

    So it’s just a coincidence that Vlad was “ready” during Obama and others, but not “ready” during 4 years of Trump, until after Biden replaced him?

    It’s an “amazing coincidence”.

    Similarly, some people insisted that when Colonel Qaddafi handed over his WMD programs two weeks after Saddam Hussein was captured, it was really the end result of “20 years of diplomacy”.

    Or, when COVID-19 broke out, it was just an amazing coincidence that, of all the many — probably thousands — of wet markets in China, it just happened to be the one right next door to China’s only virology institute.

    Some people have a tendency to apply all their powers of mind to not seeing the obvious.

     

     

    • #14
  15. Fresch Fisch Coolidge
    Fresch Fisch
    @FreschFisch

    https://emmer.house.gov/2022/1/emmer-introduces-legislation-to-prevent-unilateral-fed-control-of-a-u-s-digital-currency

     

    @peterrobinson

     

    • #15
  16. Theodoric of Freiberg Inactive
    Theodoric of Freiberg
    @TheodoricofFreiberg

    It is delusional to believe that Taiwan isn’t already toast. We have no leverage. Nukes and the threat of completely shutting down our economy will keep us from doing anything of substance. It’s sad but true.

    • #16
  17. Taras Coolidge
    Taras
    @Taras

    Theodoric of Freiberg (View Comment):

    It is delusional to believe that Taiwan isn’t already toast. We have no leverage. Nukes and the threat of completely shutting down our economy will keep us from doing anything of substance. It’s sad but true.

    I pointed out elsewhere that we can resupply Ukraine by road and rail. Any aid to Taiwan, however, will have to travel by sea and air — and the Red Chinese have built their military to make that impossible.

    • #17
  18. HankRhody Freelance Philosopher Contributor
    HankRhody Freelance Philosopher
    @HankRhody

    “Rooter”? Rob, you’ve got no standing to make fun of Peter’s technical knowledge anymore.

    • #18
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