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For months, I’ve been haranguing Ricochetti about the growing disparity between the jobs numbers reported by the Establishment Survey vs. the Household Survey, pointing to my belief that the headline numbers from the Establishment report were, like the rent, “too damn high.”
Well, well, well. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) just released a revision to the jobs numbers, and 818,000 of those Establishment report jobs just evaporated. Add those to last year’s downward revision of 307,000 and that means that 1.125 MILLION of those Biden-Harris highly trumpeted jobs were figments of the BLS’s imagination.
If I were the conspiratorial type, I’d be tempted to speculate that they needed amped-up job numbers to boost the Biden campaign. The PR from those numbers is in the mix.
Now, Biden is gone and they have an energized Brutus Harris campaign. So what the donor class really, really needs now is a rate cut to boost the market. But the ‘fantastic’ jobs numbers are making the Fed skittish about cutting rates. Soooooooo…. We have a huge revision and Shazam …. Rate cuts look much more likely.
What's the real story with jobs?
To gauge the health of the economy, I focus my attention on Full Time Employment. The numbers come from the Household Survey. That's the same data set used to calculate the official unemployment rate. Its bona fides are impeccable.
Full-time jobs are the kinds of jobs that people can build a life around. So let’s look at those…
That means Trump’s economy Created about 3MM more NEW full-time jobs than Biden. More than 2X more.
And most recently…
Over half a MILLION fewer Americans are employed full-time than a year ago.
Discussion (87)
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You were on top of it, Ekosj! Well done! Although I'm not thrilled with lower numbers...
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The Household Survey is a people-centric measure.
The Establishment Survey is an institution-centric measure.
Republicans should be the party of the people.
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Hmm, so, do they think that being able to justify a rate cut, will be more valuable to them politically, than good - but fake - jobs numbers?
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Both are important. The Establishment survey has no way to know if people have 2 or 3 jobs. A third source is ADP, which processes 80% of paychecks. They have the best data.
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cooking the books is the new norm- the FBI crime stats have serious issues as well. It seems the victimization surveys show significantly more crime than the FBI surveys.
washingtonexaminer.com
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So other than crime, jobs/economy, government spending, inflation, foreign policy, immigration…Biden-Harris are doing great! And law fare and Hunter/Joe/James/Jill’s corruption go without mentioning ( not needed).
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