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Jobs Revision: 818,000 Jobs Just Went “Poof”
For months, I’ve been haranguing Ricochetti about the growing disparity between the jobs numbers reported by the Establishment Survey vs. the Household Survey, pointing to my belief that the headline numbers from the Establishment report were, like the rent, “too damn high.”
Well, well, well. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) just released a revision to the jobs numbers, and 818,000 of those Establishment report jobs just evaporated. Add those to last year’s downward revision of 307,000 and that means that 1.125 MILLION of those Biden-Harris highly trumpeted jobs were figments of the BLS’s imagination.
If I were the conspiratorial type, I’d be tempted to speculate that they needed amped-up job numbers to boost the Biden campaign. The PR from those numbers is in the mix.
Now, Biden is gone and they have an energized Brutus Harris campaign. So what the donor class really, really needs now is a rate cut to boost the market. But the ‘fantastic’ jobs numbers are making the Fed skittish about cutting rates. Soooooooo…. We have a huge revision and Shazam …. Rate cuts look much more likely.
What’s the real story with jobs?
To gauge the health of the economy, I focus my attention on Full Time Employment. The numbers come from the Household Survey. That’s the same data set used to calculate the official unemployment rate. Its bona fides are impeccable.
Full-time jobs are the kinds of jobs that people can build a life around. So let’s look at those…
That means Trump’s economy Created about 3MM more NEW full-time jobs than Biden. More than 2X more.
And most recently…
Over half a MILLION fewer Americans are employed full-time than a year ago.
Published in Economy
You were on top of it, Ekosj! Well done! Although I’m not thrilled with lower numbers…
The Household Survey is a people-centric measure.
The Establishment Survey is an institution-centric measure.
Republicans should be the party of the people.
Hmm, so, do they think that being able to justify a rate cut, will be more valuable to them politically, than good – but fake – jobs numbers?
Both are important. The Establishment survey has no way to know if people have 2 or 3 jobs. A third source is ADP, which processes 80% of paychecks. They have the best data.
cooking the books is the new norm- the FBI crime stats have serious issues as well. It seems the victimization surveys show significantly more crime than the FBI surveys.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/restoring-america/fairness-justice/2953562/bad-data-from-the-fbi-mislead-about-crime/
So other than crime, jobs/economy, government spending, inflation, foreign policy, immigration…Biden-Harris are doing great! And law fare and Hunter/Joe/James/Jill’s corruption go without mentioning ( not needed).
I don’t think a fed rate cut in September has any impact outside the stock and bond markets. And maybe a positive bump on the announcement but short term.
Everything I’ve read over the years says the state of the economy in the early part of the year has the most influence on how voters see things.
I agree that both are important to our knowledge of the functioning of the economy. The Household Survey is the more people-centric measure, though.
Back to the “Saved or Created” job metric
I don’t know why the Dems dropped that one. They had the MSM repeating it without any reflection at all.
Yes. Nobody pays attention to the revisions. Except the stats nerds like me
I don’t know if a rate cut will be very useful either. But at least it will be “new.”
So the thing about lying about the jobs figures is this.
The only people left who are undecided in this election [and just how the HELL can anyone be “undecided” in this election?] are people who don’t pay attention to employment reports.
Meanwhile, there are 800,000 fewer jobs. You can’t tell people they’re doing well when they aren’t doing well: Lying about that is like lying about the cost of a loaf of bread or a gallon of gas. It doesn’t change the real world in which people are living.
It will be useful to those who use inflation to make themselves richer while everyone else gets poorer. Unfortunately I’m in the middle. It only helps me to hold my own. Or at least not lose as much as some folks do.
If no crimes are reported, then non occurred. Magic!
Many of the largest , most crime ridden, Big Blue Sh#tholes simply ….. stopped reporting crimes to the FBI. Voila! “Crime is lower under Biden Harris’!
The revision being announced now is simply cover for the Fed to now hammer down rates to juice the stock market in the run up to the election.
The FBI changed the reporting requirements at the very moment that Big Blue Sh#tholes (I rather like that!) defunded their police departments. Some cities just stopped reporting to the Feds.
The sad part is, it isn’t just the fact that many of the largest cities quit reporting data, but that we all know people quit reporting crimes in many of the “Soros” prosecutor cities since they know nothing will be done about it- why bother. So soon, even the legitimately collected stats become worthless, since the public no longer reports crimes.
Apparently only ABC mentioned the revision.
https://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/nb/jorge-bonilla/2024/08/21/abc-only-network-report-massive-downward-jobs-revision
The war with EastAsia has created millions of jobs as did the job creation from installations of tampon dispensing devices in all of the nation’s bathrooms for persons identifying as male. Since the arrest of Emmanuel Goldstein, urban crime has virtually disappeared. American families cannot thrive without access to free vasectomies and abortions to lower data care costs. All consumer prices are lower than ever and contrary assertions will result in prosecution for insurrection. Each of Command Sergeant Major Walz’s fellow soldiers says that “he is is the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful human being I’ve ever known in my life.” You will come to experience joy once you are freed from misinformation.
[sigh]
I think it was Jim Geraghty on the Three Martini Lunch podcast who questioned why even have the BLS calculate jobs numbers when they’re always revising them . . .
They do the same kinds of things with “inflation” etc. As I’ve mentioned previously/elsewhere. One of their tricks is “substitution.” If the price of beef, for example, gets “too high” they’ll just assume that people switched to using chicken. And even if the price of chicken has also greatly increased, if it’s less than beef they’ll claim that “cost of dinner” has gone DOWN.
Ultimately everything. And I mean everything, that comes out of government or the MiniTrue that is our “media” is fake. I just wonder how long they can keep this up without the entire Potemkin Village crashing down in ruin. It feels like it’s getting close.
We’re always getting closer. It could be mere days, or it could take centuries.
Considering the current debt situation etc, I wouldn’t figure on centuries. Maybe years, perhaps a couple decades.
Keep in mind that even during the Great Depression, unemployment was still “only” 24.9% at the worst.
It doesn’t necessarily take a lot of numerical downturn to cause a lot of problems, especially in cities full of renters.
And centuries after it happens, what passes for historians will be arguing about when it all came crashing down. Some will say it was in the 20th century.
You’d think they could at least get the century right.
Short term thinking is all they’re thinking. Get a little bump to get more early voters for Harris.
In retrospect it might turn out to be right, depending on what criteria you use.
I know – no “journalist” ever asked how to you measure a “saved job”.