When Will They Make the Switch?

It is no longer a question of if but when Biden will be pushed aside by his party. Direct opposition in a primary would be messy and potentially divisive. Better to wait until closer to the convention to have the nice men in white coats take him for a secret rendezvous with Mitterrand and Meir with lots of tapioca.

Waiting and pulling a Torricelli also has the advantage that the successor nominee will not have to undergo sustained scrutiny under campaign pressure but will instead be whatever image package is handed to CNN and the NYT at the time of nomination. A clean slate and a vague promise to fix the Biden disaster with an explicit promise to be anti-Trump and to save democracy by doubling down on oppressive use of power against the MAGA threat cannot help but create a large surge in the polls.

Handing the baton to Ms. Harris would be a disaster for the party. She is an idiot. Newsom is a rich white male who would be elbowing aside the first female black VP—and he has a record that may be less than ideal (although his capacity to lie about such things is impressive). So, for these reasons alone, if Michelle Obama is tired of the good life (that still seems a bit unlikely) and is promised to have the White House handed to her with minimal hassle, she is the best option for the Democrats. I used to think it was a long shot. Not anymore.