The Week in Europe

 

The GOP convention has probably drowned out the news from Europe in the US, but it’s been a dramatic week. I’ve been unable to take my eyes or my mind off events in Turkey. I wrote this piece for City Journal:

… It will be many years, if ever, before we fully understand what just took place. But some of the conclusions hastily drawn in the Western media make no sense. Many commentators have been quick, for example, to accept Gülen’s intimation that the scale of the purge indicates the coup attempt was staged by Erdoğan himself, in some kind of Turkish Reichstag fire. True, lists of people to purge were prepared long in advance, but that doesn’t mean that Erdoğan staged the coup. It’s no surprise to anyone in Turkey that these lists were ready; the government had already said as much. To understand why, you’d need to be familiar with events in Turkey from the time the AKP came to power to the present, as well as the way, beginning in 2012, the AKP visibly, explosively, and publicly fell out with Gülen’s flock. The president has taken advantage of the coup plot to accelerate a purge, but it doesn’t mean he staged it. Nor is it evidence for Gülen’s involvement, though it would be credulous to dismiss that idea out of hand.

Regardless of the extent of their involvement, Gülenists are and have long been present in the Turkish military. There is strong circumstantial evidence to suggest that Gülen’s supporters manufactured evidence during the sham trials of senior military figures; Gülenist press organs were keen to promote easily-dismissed and contradictory evidence as fact, and did so even as that evidence became more contradictory and absurd.

No one knows how or why Gülenists were involved in those trials, so no one yet understands the extent and the nature of Gülen’s involvement in Turkish politics and the military. Quite a number of Turkish military sources believe that there are large numbers of Gülenists in the nation’s armed forces; top commanders and generals have long spoken against Gülen and warned of attempts at infiltration. That Gülen says he has always been against military interventions doesn’t make it true. Gülen praised and fawned over the army after the 1980 coup. The army has long purged Gülenists amid their ranks, however, to the extent they could detect them. Erdoğan put an end to those the purges during the period after he took power, when he and Gülen closely collaborated. …

I also co-wrote this piece for The American Interest with Turkish economist and blogger Ali Kincal. His blog, Turkey Insider, is a good one to put on your regular reading list.

While the jets and helicopters were raining fire on Parliament, crowds, and police headquarters, some Turks—and some observers abroad—claimed the entire thing had been staged by Erdoğan as a gambit to introduce a presidential system and rewrite the country’s constitution. This theory is nuts, but Turkish conspiracy-mindedness is understandable under the circumstances. Not long ago, Erdoğan stoutly defended the so-called Ergenekon and Balyoz trials, in which many members of the military, journalists, and other civil society figures were accused of coup-plotting. Erdoğan spent many happy years with his then-allies in the Gülen movement hunting Kemalists and other political opponents, using these non-existent, or at least unproven, coup plots as a pretext to lock them up, often uncharged, and often for years.

And for years, pro-Erdoğan pundits and other useful idiots spent hours on television expatiating on coup plots for which there was no evidence, or only manifestly falsified evidence. For years, they bullied and treated as lunatics those who warned of a Gülenist takeover. It is only natural that these people are now reluctant to believe that, this time, the coup was real. Their skepticism is a symptom of Turkey’s unhealthy political polarization, to be sure, but they were not born paranoid; Erdoğan made them that way. Secular, urban people see themselves as squeezed between two Islamist camps they despise equally. As they watch the political war between the two camps turn into a literal one, they feel even more besieged. It’s the reality of Turkish conspiracies that explains the tendency toward conspiratorial thinking among Turks. (It is unclear what Western pundits’ excuse is.)

I also recommend, as I always do, Gareth Jenkins’ Post-Putsch Narratives and Turkey’s Curious Coup. Jenkins’ knowledge of and contacts in the Turkish military is without rival among Anglophone journalists.

Many of the details of the July 15 putsch still remain clear. Although it is difficult to understand how an organization that has spent decades creating a vast global network on the foundations of a commitment to non-violence and dialogue would risk it all by staging a coup – even a false flag one – it is nevertheless theoretically possible that the Gülen Movement was responsible. It is also possible, though not proved, that a handful of Gülenist officers were panicked by rumors that had begun to circulate that they would be purged at the next YAŞ meeting on August 1, 2016 – and had acted independently of the movement as a whole. But there are problems with the AKP’s simplistic narrative that the putsch was a purely Gülenist affair – not least because at least some of the officers who have confessed to playing an active role are known to be hardline Kemalists.

Nevertheless, after years in which Erdoğan repeatedly tried to attribute his policy failures to imagined conspiracies, he has now been faced with a real one. His response – which appears to be driven by a combination of opportunism and genuine fear – has been to purge not just alleged Gülenists but anyone not considered sufficient loyal to himself. As Erdoğan continues to gut the apparatus of state, the concern is that the purges will expand into mass persecutions that could further destabilize an already very fragile country.

I’m seeing articles everywhere describing Gülen as some kind of Turkish Gandhi or Sufi Voltaire. Graham Fuller, a former spook who wrote a letter of recommendation for Gülen’s immigration application, did nothing to combat Turkish paranoia by publishing an article in the Huffington Post avowing that The Gulen Movement Is Not a Cult — It’s One of the Most Encouraging Faces of Islam Today. “I would rank Hizmet high on the list of rational, moderate, socially constructive and open-minded organizations,” he wrote. “It is not a cult; it sits squarely in mainstream modernizing Islam.” Try to see that from the Turkish point of view. It seems literally impossible that a man with an intelligence background could write something like that about this guy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZTYXxhxLTlQ

I have no idea what Fuller’s motivation could be. Could he really be that out of touch? Anyway, I’ve written yet another piece explaining who Gülen is. I pray the people currently staffing our intelligence agencies are more clued-in than Fuller.

I’ve seen no confirmation of this from American sources, but RFE/RL is reporting that according to Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Çavuşoğlu, Washington has proposed to create a commission to examine Gülen’s extradition. I don’t at all know if this is true, but if it is — and if it’s handled correctly — this would be exactly the right thing to do. It should be televised and simultaneously translated, and all relevant US records should be declassified. Americans and Turks alike are entitled to know what such an investigation would reveal. If done properly, it could even serve some of the functions of a truth and reconciliation commission. I wouldn’t have thought our foreign-policy apparatus agile enough to come up with this idea, but Çavuşoğlu seems to think we’ve proposed something along these lines. I hope we have.

In other news, Vladimir Bukovsky’s libel trial against Crown Prosecution Service is scheduled to begin on Monday at the Royal Courts of Justice in London. He now has a website for updates about his case:

Appearing on a Top 5 hit list circulated among Russian intelligence is no easy feat for a writer.

But it’s Bukovsky’s unflappable opposition to Vladimir Putin that made him one of five people outside Russia who, according to a leaked document, needed to be eliminated. Two of the five are dead, a third was poisoned.

Bukovsky, the writer on the list, is under a different attack — one that will erase his lifetime of words. Police were tipped off that a trove of child pornography could be found on his laptop. Britain’s Crown Prosecution Service issued a press release that gave Russian media the go-ahead to smear his name. For a man whose unwavering moral integrity has been the foundation of his credibility, it’s worse than a bullet.

Her Majesty’s High Court of Justice in England has reviewed the evidence and agreed to let Bukovsky take CPS to court for libel, an acknowledgement that this is no imaginary conspiracy theory.

The good news is that his health is as good as could be hoped under the circumstances. You may remember that the court had postponed the libel trial so that it would take place after the criminal trial. That’s what prompted him to begin a hunger strike. In May, the criminal trial was adjourned to December, placing it after the libel trial. It’s unclear whether the postponement was in any way a response to his hunger strike; if it was, the court didn’t say so. I have to say that I’m not optimistic about the outcome of the libel suit. Friends who know the British legal system better than I tell me there’s no precedent for a verdict in his favor. But one hopes for the best. If you’d like to follow the proceedings, Luke Harding will be at the trial.

It’s been a dizzying news week in Europe, most of it bad. We don’t yet know much about yesterday’s shooting spree in Munich. Police say the perpetrator was an 18-year-old German-Iranian from Munich with no criminal record, and that he acted alone. A video has emerged in which he can be heard yelling “I am German” and “[expletive] Turks.” Here’s a translation of the transcript. (Very vulgar.)

We know more about the attack in Nice. Among other things, the attack suggests major dysfunction in France’s security apparatus. The French public is furious: This is the third major terrorist attack in France 18 months. This time, there is none of the national unity that prevailed after the previous attacks. Opposition conservatives have pounced on the government for failing to protect the people, with next year’s elections clearly in mind. Last year, France’s political class largely stood behind President Hollande, but no longer. Arthur Goldhammer’s piece about the mood here strikes me as about right:

… his act was perfectly designed for maximum symbolic effect, coming as it did at the end of a day celebrating “Liberty, Equality, and Fraternity” and aimed at the hedonic heart of the Mediterranean.

It was also an attack designed to inflict maximum…despair. Despair rather than damage: Damage is not the point of these horrors, although there is damage enough, carnage enough, blood enough. The point is to induce desperation and trigger an emotional, irrational, disproportionate, and ill-targeted response. And I fear that the enemy is on the point of achieving its goal.

Once again, the French government was made to seem helpless and, worse, hapless. After the November 13 attacks, the government released a smartphone app intended to warn citizens of an attack in progress. But no warning went out during the Nice attack, and the app failed to signal anything unusual until more than two hours after the event, by which time the attacker was already dead.

Although attacks like this one are difficult, if not impossible, to prevent, especially when the attacker has not been identified as a potential radical, the government, which had only just breathed a collective sigh of relief after the French-hosted European soccer championship ended without incident, was thus left looking helpless and embarrassed by a terrorist who was able to drive several kilometers unmolested along a boulevard ostensibly closed to traffic during the Bastille Day celebration.

And what else could go wrong? Well, the Republican presidential candidate could pour kerosene over the European fire. And indeed he did. Everyone has already pointed out how insanely reckless Trump’s comments about NATO were, so I won’t bother. No one wants another argument about Trump, I dare say, so I’ll just say that I thought the comments were unhelpful and leave it at that.

And how was your week?

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  1. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    It’s good to have a reminder and update about the Bukovsky case. Do you have any sense of how much attention is being paid to this case in Britain?

    • #1
  2. Claire Berlinski, Ed. Member
    Claire Berlinski, Ed.
    @Claire

    The Reticulator:It’s good to have a reminder and update about the Bukovsky case. Do you have any sense of how much attention is being paid to this case in Britain?

    Not much at all, not that I can see. It might get more attention when there’s actually something to report on Monday.

    • #2
  3. BrentB67 Inactive
    BrentB67
    @BrentB67

    Great article. I need a diagram or flow chart to keep with all of this.

    • #3
  4. John H. Member
    John H.
    @JohnH

    I watched that video. I couldn’t make out such audio as there was, but I could, I think, translate the titles. Benim huzurum is unaffected; it all looked like Turks being Turkish. What am I missing?

    • #4
  5. Claire Berlinski, Ed. Member
    Claire Berlinski, Ed.
    @Claire

    John H.:I watched that video. I couldn’t make out such audio as there was, but I could, I think, translate the titles. Benim huzurum is unaffected; it all looked like Turks being Turkish. What am I missing?

    That looks like Turks being Turkish? Since when?

    • #5
  6. Kozak Member
    Kozak
    @Kozak

    How’s our week?

    weve had 6 police killed in the line of duty this week, and 18 since the start of July….

    • #6
  7. Kozak Member
    Kozak
    @Kozak

    Oh and Hillary is reportedly going to have the mother of  Mike Brown, ” the Gentle Giant” of Ferguson as a guest at the DNC.

    • #7
  8. Paul A. Rahe Member
    Paul A. Rahe
    @PaulARahe

    One thing worth mentioning. The Nazis did not stage the Reichstag Fire. They mercilessly took advantage of it, and they, too, had lists of people they wanted to eliminate and measures they wanted to implement. The claim that it was staged was communist propaganda.

    • #8
  9. Front Seat Cat Member
    Front Seat Cat
    @FrontSeatCat

    Dictators are clever – they always make the trouble they cause look like someone else’s fault.  They also have an annoying way of exporting their problems. If a “so-called” leader is making life better for its citizens, it’s country’s economic condition, and contributing to the world in positive ways, you have good leadership.  Poor leadership can’t lie its way out – the fruits are lawlessness, violence, increased poverty, less opportunity, suffocating debt, and eventually, chaos.  Claire – you said Europe was a dying continent. We in the U.S. do not want to follow suit.  Things are going from bad to worse here and abroad – the Middle East speaks for itself.   Yes, we have it better on our worst day than many on their best, certainly Turkey.  But the world is experiencing on many levels, the fruits of poor leadership and the people are trying to change it, to get their lives and countries back – Dictators are digging in.  But just maybe, sometimes, there is success, and it will embolden and bring courage to the next country and so on.  Thank you for your excellent reporting as always.

    • #9
  10. Mr. Newit Member
    Mr. Newit
    @MrNewit

    Claire Berlinski, Ed.:

    John H.:I watched that video. I couldn’t make out such audio as there was, but I could, I think, translate the titles. Benim huzurum is unaffected; it all looked like Turks being Turkish. What am I missing?

    That looks like Turks being Turkish? Since when?

    I too am a bit puzzled by the video. I’ve tried Google translate on the phrases shown but they don’t come across well. Is this him having a vision in the middle of a speech? If so, I’ve seen this at Baptist church services. Then again, Baptists don’t have an militant wing.

    • #10
  11. Joseph Stanko Coolidge
    Joseph Stanko
    @JosephStanko

    Two reasons why anyone reading this page should join Ricochet immediately:

    1. If you go read Claire’s article on City Journal, the first comment under it begins with “I am making $340 to $350 per hour by online working on facebook.”  None of that junk here!
    2. If you are a member, you can ask a question in the comments and Claire will actually respond!  (See #2)

    Seriously, go join right now.

    • #11
  12. Doug Watt Member
    Doug Watt
    @DougWatt

    I do wish that major media types would quit calling Erdoğan’s Turkey a democracy. It is no more a democracy than Iran is.

    I’ll go off the thread here for a moment. US forces warned the drivers of ISIS tanker trucks by dropping leaflets before the air strikes hit the trucks. I suspect that was because the drivers were Turkish citizens and the destination for ISIS oil was Turkey.

    • #12
  13. Del Mar Dave Member
    Del Mar Dave
    @DelMarDave

    BrentB67:Great article. I need a diagram or flow chart to keep with all of this.

    Me, too.

    When I was in college and reading Dostoyevsky (and other Russian novelists), I did my best to create family trees of names from a bizarrely foreign language so that I could follow the narratives….and pass exams.

    To quote my favorite line from The King and I, “Is a puzzlement!”

    • #13
  14. Claire Berlinski, Ed. Member
    Claire Berlinski, Ed.
    @Claire

    Mr. Newit: Is this him having a vision in the middle of a speech? If so, I’ve seen this at Baptist church services.

    I wonder if one reason Americans have been more sympathetic to him than I’d expect is that we have a tradition of extremely flamboyant Baptist preaching, as you say. In Turkey, this is the behavior of a cult leader — the weeping, the focus on the person of Gülen (who styles himself as the Mahdi) rather than God. And it’s not “mainstream” at all.

    • #14
  15. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    Claire Berlinski, Ed.:

    In Turkey, this is the behavior of a cult leader — the weeping, the focus on the person of Gülen (who styles himself as the Mahdi) rather than God. And it’s not “mainstream” at all.

    In fact it’s borderline kufr.

    • #15
  16. Claire Berlinski, Ed. Member
    Claire Berlinski, Ed.
    @Claire

    Zafar: In fact it’s borderline kufr.

    That’s right — pious folks find it cult-like and wholly inappropriate; secular folks find it terrifying — who would want him in charge?

    • #16
  17. Claire Berlinski, Ed. Member
    Claire Berlinski, Ed.
    @Claire

    This comment — from someone using a pseudonym on Reddit — is absolutely typical of what you’ll hear from Turks about him. I find it amazing that we (Americans) don’t seem to be aware  of any of it, even though he’s in the US.

    • #17
  18. Ontheleftcoast Inactive
    Ontheleftcoast
    @Ontheleftcoast

    Claire Berlinski, Ed.: (who styles himself as the Mahdi)

    Yikes.

    • #18
  19. Schwaibold Inactive
    Schwaibold
    @Schwaibold

    Claire Berlinski, Ed.:This comment — from someone using a pseudonym on Reddit — is absolutely typical of what you’ll hear from Turks about him. I find it amazing that we (Americans) don’t seem to be aware of any of it, even though he’s in the US.

    I first became aware of Gulen when looking into Harmony schools in Texas, though I am much less concerned with its Turkish nationalism than its Islamism. Western media and academia have been spouting for years how modern and progressive Turkey is, and how it’s long overdue for inclusion into the EU. Anyone expressing ANY concern over Turkish Islamism (or any Islamism) is treated by the smart set as a Trump supporting, Brexit voting, xenophobic, racist, sub-human troll that must be silenced and/or eliminated. So, most people figure out it’s best if they just keep their mouth shut.

    • #19
  20. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    It’s possible that a more sincere accession process would have changed the cultural balance of power in Turkey in favour of secularists – though the Kemalists, as the secular standard bearers, were just not that into all that European stuff about minority rights and the like.  So perhaps just another issue.

    A segue: I wonder if part of the issue with Turkey is that Turkey was not a European colony, but rather colonised (or ruled?) areas like Greece and Bulgaria that are now countries in Europe

    • #20
  21. Schwaibold Inactive
    Schwaibold
    @Schwaibold

    Zafar:It’s possible that a more sincere accession process would have changed the cultural balance of power in Turkey in favour of secularists – though the Kemalists, as the secular standard bearers, were just not that into all that European stuff about minority rights and the like. So perhaps just another issue.

    A segue: I wonder if part of the issue with Turkey is that Turkey was not a European colony, but rather colonised (or ruled?) areas like Greece and Bulgaria that are now countries in Europe

    Just curious, what do you mean by more sincere accession process?

    Again, curious, how, and for whom, would Turkey’s imperial past been an issue?

    • #21
  22. James Gawron Inactive
    James Gawron
    @JamesGawron

    Claire,

    Suspects apprehended on suspicion of involvement in the plot appear from photographs to have been beaten. They have been denied access to lawyers. About 20 news websites critical of the government have been shut down. The government has published lists of journalists to be arrested, and effectively banned foreign travel for civil servants—3 million people, nearly 5 percent of the population. Thirty district governors have been replaced. Some 9,000 police and interior ministry officials have been suspended; 2,700 judges and prosecutors have been removed from their posts. Turkey’s board of higher education has requested the resignation of 1,577 university rectors and deans. Another 15,000 state education employees have been suspended. The state news agency reports that nearly 400 employees of the ministry of family and social policies have been stripped of their responsibilities. Government spokesperson Ibrahim Kalın has assured reporters that the arrest of nearly a third of Turkey’s 328 generals hasn’t weakened the military in its fight against ISIS and the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). That claim is highly doubtful, particularly if, as has been reported, that Turkish army forces in the southeast have been barred from leaving their barracks for fear they might launch a second coup attempt.
    Tuesday’s announcement that the licenses of 21,000 private schoolteachers have been suspended brings the total number of those suspended or detained to about 60,000…

    This is a huge unconstitutional purge planned months if not years in advance by Erdoğan. If a small number of low-ranking army officers desperately tried a hopeless coup at the last moment realizing the extent of Erdoğan’s diabolical intent this does not exactly constitute a threat to democracy that justifies Erdoğan’s actions. Quite the contrary, it is Erdoğan’s actions which are grossly unconstitutional and constitute the real threat to democracy. As far as Gülen, I don’t see a movement that produces a great surplus of math teachers as some sort of Islamist cult. I will stand by my characterization. Gülen in every way appears to me to be an update of Kemalism. By adding a mild Muslim (by Islamic standards, not ours) religiosity to what is most significantly a western secularizing movement Gülen hoped to be a force for positive change. It is interesting that it is easy for these crudes militias to identify the Gülenists as they are simply the most well (western) educated people in Turkey.

    There was no coup in Turkey. There was a huge purge by Erdoğan. A few of the purgees, knowing that they were on the list, tried a desperate attempt to stop the purge. They failed and the purge succeeded.

    Regards,

    Jim

    • #22
  23. Gaby Charing Inactive
    Gaby Charing
    @GabyCharing

    The Bukovsky libel trial will be held in open court, open to the public and the press. That is why the judge will be robed. The robing itself is not significant. Most libel trials are heard by a judge alone, sitting without a jury. Either party can apply to have a jury, although such a request will not necessarily be granted. I don’t know if a jury has been requested in this case.

    • #23
  24. Claire Berlinski, Ed. Member
    Claire Berlinski, Ed.
    @Claire

    James Gawron: Gülen in every way appears to me to be an update of Kemalism.

    Jim, with respect, you’ve got no idea what you’re talking about. I say this affectionately.

    • #24
  25. James Gawron Inactive
    James Gawron
    @JamesGawron

    Claire Berlinski, Ed.:

    James Gawron: Gülen in every way appears to me to be an update of Kemalism.

    Jim, with respect, you’ve got no idea what you’re talking about. I say this affectionately.

    Claire,

    I return the affection. However, even if I misuse the term Kemalism, I think it far less a mistake than to confuse a movement that produces a very large number of highly qualified math teachers with an Islamic religious cult. (I don’t think there has been a true mathematics cult since the Pythagoreans, ask your father.) Whatever the reality, I doubt that the Gülenists are in any way the perpetrators of a coup but rather victims of a purge. I don’t think the evidence shows the glass half full and half empty. The glass has a drop of coup and a pint of purge. (I tortured that analogy mercilessly. Never let it be said that I was kind to metaphors.)

    Regards,

    Jim

    • #25
  26. John H. Member
    John H.
    @JohnH

    Claire Berlinski, Ed.:

    John H.:I watched that video. I couldn’t make out such audio as there was, but I could, I think, translate the titles. Benim huzurum is unaffected; it all looked like Turks being Turkish. What am I missing?

    That looks like Turks being Turkish? Since when?

    Since 1992. Turkey was overrun with idle males then. You – or I – couldn’t miss them. At least these guys are milling around a bit. Back then, they were as torpid as wet sandbags.

    But times change. (I had that link embedded in my bio, not that I expected folks to run go read it, but Ricochet seems to have done away with the things. I guess the implied obligation to provide one scared off subscribers.) I never did pay attention to religious or political effusions, beyond noticing that the newspaper Zaman had a grumpiness all its own. The video just seemed to be showing some tired old guy rather emotionally saying farewell, and I did not put it into context, certainly not a Turkish one.

    • #26
  27. Ontheleftcoast Inactive
    Ontheleftcoast
    @Ontheleftcoast

    James Gawron: Whatever the reality, I doubt that the Gülenists are in any way the perpetrators of a coup but rather victims of a purge. I don’t think the evidence shows the glass half full and half empty. The glass has a drop of coup and a pint of purge. (I tortured that analogy mercilessly. Never let it be said that I was kind to metaphors.)

    He obviously had plans and a long list ready to go. But if Erdogan isn’t the kind of guy to risk his life to get rid of the Gülenists once and for all, was the putsch a surprise to Erdogan? Did he know that an attempted coup or putsch was in the offing sometime so that the surprise was the timing of this one? Did he deliberately let it happen, but the surprise was that the perpetrators became a danger to his life?

    We may never really know, or at least not for a long while. It’s certainly going to be hard to figure out what’s true and what’s propaganda to justify the Reichstag fire response.

    I like Glenn Reynolds’ quip yesterday about a Der Spiegel piece:

    IT’S MORE OF A GLEEFUL LEAP THAN A “SLIDE,” REALLY: Erdogan’s Putsch: Turkey’s Post-Coup Slide into Dictatorship

    • #27
  28. James Gawron Inactive
    James Gawron
    @JamesGawron

    Ontheleftcoast:

    James Gawron: Whatever the reality, I doubt that the Gülenists are in any way the perpetrators of a coup but rather victims of a purge. I don’t think the evidence shows the glass half full and half empty. The glass has a drop of coup and a pint of purge. (I tortured that analogy mercilessly. Never let it be said that I was kind to metaphors.)

    He obviously had plans and a long list ready to go. But if Erdogan isn’t the kind of guy to risk his life to get rid of the Gülenists once and for all, was the putsch a surprise to Erdogan? Did he know that an attempted coup or putsch was in the offing sometime so that the surprise was the timing of this one? Did he deliberately let it happen, but the surprise was that the perpetrators became a danger to his life?

    We may never really know, or at least not for a long while. It’s certainly going to be hard to figure out what’s true and what’s propaganda to justify the Reichstag fire response.

    I like Glenn Reynolds’ quip yesterday about a Der Spiegel piece:

    IT’S MORE OF A GLEEFUL LEAP THAN A “SLIDE,” REALLY: Erdogan’s Putsch: Turkey’s Post-Coup Slide into Dictatorship

    OnThe,

    It’s an absurd question “Who planned Turkey’s coup?” Isn’t it obvious that the coup wasn’t planned at all? The Purge was elaborately planned and was being put into motion. At the last moment, a few of the targets, realizing what was happening, tried to counter.

    Regards,

    Jim

    • #28
  29. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    Schwaibold:

    Just curious, what do you mean by more sincere accession process?

    There’s a perception, fair or not, that The EU was going through the motions with Turkey – that it would have withdrawn the possibility of accession if it could.

    Re imperial past: Greece and Bulgaria. (And Serbia and Macedonia, though they aren’t in the EU yet.)

    • #29
  30. Ontheleftcoast Inactive
    Ontheleftcoast
    @Ontheleftcoast

    @jamesgawron

    That’s a likely possibility, but not a certainty. FromSad Puppy/Rabid Puppy/writer/lawyer/soldier/Tom Kratman :

    We can further be confident that the Turkish Armed Forces know how to launch a coup, and were almost certainly preparing one, as the constitution tacitly requires them to do and as they have before, some four or five times since 1960. Moreover, they have done so before – two or three times in arms and twice more subtly, in words – with confidence and competence, two things not in obvious surplus on the 16th of July, 2016.

    Part of his analysis:

    • A. The coup attempt could have been more or less spontaneous, incited by word that Erdogan’s government was about to start arresting soldiers that either adhered to liberal Islamic cleric, Fethullah Gülen, or on some other pretext.
    • B. It could have been preplanned for a later date and only moved ahead because of the fear of arrest.
    • C. It could have been a small scale plot, as per B., above, but one of which Erdogan was fully apprised, and the timing of which he was able to control by issuance of arrest warrants, as per A. and B.

    [continued]

    • #30
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