Tag: Trump voters

Contributor Post Created with Sketch. Recommended by Ricochet Members Created with Sketch. Steve Scalise for the Win, Part 2

 

Many months ago, in May 2018, I reacted to Paul Ryan’s announced retirement, while failing to yield the Speakership, with an impassioned plea for Majority Whip Steve Scalise to be immediately elevated to Speaker, leading the House Republicans to midterm election victory. This week’s news has, regrettably, borne out the wisdom of that advice. If the Republicans hold the House majority, it will be despite the worst efforts of Ryan, and thanks to Congressman Steve Scalise and President Donald Trump.

It should have been obvious, to all House Republicans who wished to retain their majority, and the power and perks of office, that:

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Contributor Post Created with Sketch. Recommended by Ricochet Members Created with Sketch. Reviewing “The Great Revolt” in the Context of Five Countrywide Types

 

Salena Zito and Brad Todd’s new book The Great Revolt is a great read, based on extensive interviews with Trump voters as well as a Great Revolt survey. It’s important to note, though, that in the survey and later for the book, there are only interviews with Trump supporters from a specific geographical region: Trump supporters hailing from the five “Rust Belt” states of Michigan, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania; and even more specifically, from ten electorally-significant counties within these states.

Zito and Todd’s focus on Trump voters from behind the “Blue Wall” of rust-belt counties, which had been stubbornly blue before Trump, ought to be treasured for what it is: neither a description of American Trump voters in general, nor the final word on America’s new populist-conservative coalition, but a testament to the power of geography in our electoral process, and to the strategic importance of not overlooking those who might otherwise go overlooked.

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Contributor Post Created with Sketch. Recommended by Ricochet Members Created with Sketch. Speaker Scalise for the Win!

 

The 2018 primaries are upon us, and the House GOP has an opportunity to win bigly, if they give eligible voters a reason to show up and vote for Republicans. In the face of Senate obstacles to legislative victories, House Republicans need to take meaningful action within their own control. The most dramatic such action would be forcing the election of a new Speaker against the wishes of the entrenched establishment. Representative Steve Scalise is uniquely qualified to lead Republicans to victory in the current political environment, given the clear Democratic Party strategy.

There is nothing inevitable about Republicans losing the House or Senate this November. Claims of scientific law-like electoral behavior in midterms ignore basic statistical modeling issues, starting with the small-N problem, that is the lack of predictive power due to lack of adequate data points to support statistical significance. Nevertheless, it has generally been the case that the party in the White House loses seats in Congress in the midterms. On the other hand, there are reasons pointing at least towards cautious optimism and reasons to engage in both the primaries and general election.

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This link: http://quillette.com/2017/09/28/trump-voters-irrational/. contains a fascinating and sympathetic analysis of Trump voters from a non Trump perspective. More

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Contributor Post Created with Sketch. Member Post

 

On Slack today, @exjon observed, “Condemning Nazis is the easiest political move in history. It costs Trump nothing.” I disagreed. There are a lot of ordinary people who fear that “Nazi”, at least these days, is chiefly a stick that elitists use to beat the proles. This fear, as many Trump voters like to put is, […]

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