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The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on an ancient saying that presumed black swans did not exist – a saying that became reinterpreted to teach a different lesson after the first European encounter with them. The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb starting in 2001 to explain:
- The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.
- The non-computability of the probability of consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).
- The psychological biases that blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and a rare event’s massive role in historical affairs.
Taleb’s “black swan theory” refers only to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. [Source: Wikipedia]
Several red flags that an impending recession, following the inflation we are currently in, may be far more extreme than has been predicted, and quite possibly be something we haven’t seen in our lifetime. I’m not shouting conspiracy. I like to have a heads up so I can prepare within my abilities, and so offer the following observations that I’ve encountered: