Tag: Ted Cruz

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I wonder how Donald Trump expects to unite the Republican party if he does win the nomination. Today, on his favorite cable news channel – Fox News, he accused Ted Cruz’ father of essentially some involvement in the assassination of JFK. He made this accusation based on a story in The National Enquirer, a long […]

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Modeling the GOP Nomination: Before Indiana

 

As described in sections 3.2 and 3.3 of the new PDF, the prediction model performed well last week. The median predicted delegates for Trump-Cruz-Kasich were 108-4-6, which compares well to the actual final delegate totals of 111-2-5.

The delegate model converted the actual voting shares in the states to actual delegates almost perfectly (only off by one in Rhode Island), and the model’s 80-percent confidence intervals for voting shares and delegates happened to contain the true value in all cases.

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Exhibit A: Marco Rubio Since leaving the presidential race, Marco Rubio has basically been out of the national limelight. He’s been busy working on a number of issues in the Senate and hasn’t said too much about the ongoing primary process. Recently, though, Rubio has done a few interviews in which he was asked some […]

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Indiana Predictions

 

shutterstock_218366983Ricochet, let’s have it out. Put it all on the line, and let’s hear the predictions for Indiana. Here is mine: I think this poll from NBC has it close, though I think Trump will exceed the 49 percent victory it predicts. For something closer to the final result, I look at this conclusion from the poll:

But 58 percent of likely Republican primary voters in Indiana say they disapprove of [Senators] Cruz and Kasich teaming up to beat Trump in the Hoosier State, while 34 percent say they approve of the move. What’s more, only 22 percent consider the Cruz-Kasich alliance a major factor in deciding their vote, 15 percent say it’s a minor factor and 63 percent say it would play no factor at all.

That, I suspect, is closer to the final result we’ll see tomorrow. Read together, those two statements indicate to me that the pact between Cruz and Kasich will suppress their aggregate turnout, as voters don’t care for the gamesmanship. Between that and Bobby Knight’s endorsement, I expect Trump to break 50 percent.

Post-Convention Cruz

 

DecisionTreeLet us assume, for the sake of argument, that Ted Cruz is not the GOP nominee for the presidential election. What does he do? This breaks into two, interlinked, questions: what does he do between the convention and November, and what does he do after the election?

If Trump is the GOP nominee, then Cruz could:

  • Actively support him in the general (and there is that pledge to think about)
  • Actively oppose him in the general (at the limit, running a third-party campaign — but I don’t see it)
  • Seek to avoid doing either thing, for example concentrating on supporting down-ballot candidates (“I’m not here to talk about Donald, I’m here to talk about my good friend Homer, who will be the best darn dog-catcher Springfield has ever seen!”)

(If Trump is not the GOP nominee, then presumably the first option would be favored.)

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In an article titled “Ted Cruz’s Cowardly Anti-transgender Stance,” the following appears:  Remarkably, Cruz’s anti-trans addition to his stump speech was only the second most offensive thing his campaign did in the past week. The No. 1 spot belonged to an ad released shortly after Cruz opponent Donald Trump said he disagrees with the North Carolina […]

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Ted and Carly — and Daring

 

Cruz FiorinaNaming a running mate some three months before the convention makes Ted Cruz look desperate — so goes the charge I’ve encountered on Drudge, in half a dozen reports of the event, and at saturation levels on Facebook and Twitter. You know what? Ted Cruz was — is — desperate. After Cruz’s victory in Wisconsin, a lot of observers (I include myself here) thought that Trump had peaked. He’d win in New York, but probably fail to take much more than 50 percent of the vote even there, in his home state, then sink. Instead Trump won big in New York — very big, even carrying all the upstate congressional districts — and then just yesterday he swept five out of five northeastern primaries. Ted Cruz had to do something. He had to.

Given that exigency, how has Cruz performed? In my judgment, impressively.

Carly Fiorina will give Cruz a couple of entire news cycles, and at a time when Trump would otherwise have dominated the news, that’s invaluable in itself. She also extends a certain appeal to Republican women, among whom she has higher favorability ratings than Cruz himself. She’s also a very fine campaigner — well spoken, endlessly energetic; the kind of performer who may very well make a material difference in coming days in Indiana. Most important? Carly is a believer. She adds credence and a certain new energy to what has always been Cruz’s fundamental appeal: devotion to the Constitution and an insistence — a really very fierce determination — to roll back the administrative state to protect the liberties of the people.

Cruz Focuses on GOP Women with Fiorina Pick

 

ChE1vUyWwAIvhaGWednesday afternoon, Ted Cruz announced Carly Fiorina as his vice presidential running mate at a rally in Indiana. A Hoosier State victory is crucial to the struggling campaign’s strategy of denying Donald Trump the 1,237 delegates necessary for a first-vote nomination at the Republican National Convention. Cruz is mathematically eliminated from reaching that number himself, so he has surrendered New Mexico and Oregon to John Kasich in order to focus on Indiana’s 57 delegates.

Only 23 percent of women have a positive view of Trump, a field of voters that is ripe for harvesting by a Cruz/Fiorina ticket. Their campaign has obviously determined that GOP female voters, in Indiana and elsewhere, are the key to victory. Today’s rally provided all the proof one needs of that fact.

Start with the stagecraft of the rally. Females of varying ages dominated the crowd behind the two speakers by a factor of ten to one. The only males were children. And then look to the content, starting with Cruz:

On this week’s Commentary Magazine podcast, the Not-So-Fearsome Threesome—Podhoretz, Greenwald, and Rothman—discuss Ted Cruz’s Hail-Carly play on the vice presidency and how it’s aimed almost entirely on securing female support in next Tuesday’s literally critical Indiana primary.

There’s also talk of Trump and why his support appears to be expanding out from his working-class base. And why is it that we are being told to consider a century’s worth of unimaginable progress merely “crumbs” provided by the supposedly ungenerous and penurious system called capitalism?

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The ongoing spectacle of the presidential primaries has proven to be a never-ending source of consternation and disbelief. The candidates for the Democratic nomination are fighting over which of them can most emphatically promise to ignore immigration laws and give away the most “free stuff,” and it would of course be absolutely awful if either […]

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Cruz Cedes OR, NM Primaries to Kasich; Focuses on Indiana (UPDATE: Trump Responds)

 

Jeff Roe, Cruz for President’s campaign manager released the following statement late Sunday:

Having Donald Trump at the top of the ticket in November would be a sure disaster for Republicans. Not only would Trump get blown out by Clinton or Sanders, but having him as our nominee would set the party back a generation. To ensure that we nominate a Republican who can unify the Republican Party and win in November, our campaign will focus its time and resources in Indiana and in turn clear the path for Gov. Kasich to compete in Oregon and New Mexico, and we would hope that the allies of both campaigns would follow our lead. In other states holding their elections for the remainder of the primary season, our campaign will continue to compete vigorously to win.

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Ideally, the Speaker of the House should not be called on for leadership in a presidential primary. Paul Ryan has laid out repeatedly his reasons for remaining neutral, and they’re sound. But Donald Trump’s candidacy has succeeded so often because of a leadership vacuum, and Ryan’s neutrality helps leave that vacuum in place. Ryan opposes […]

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I am a political junkie, and I am completely exhausted by the circus that is the 2016 GOP primary. Back in early 2015, 2016 couldn’t come soon enough. That is our bench? Those are our candidates? An abundance of qualified, articulate, conservative-in-various-forms candidates. This was going to be unbelievable. Preview Open

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How Trump Turned Cruz into the Establishment Candidate

 

Donald Trump NYDonald Trump’s landslide victory in the New York GOP primary was a game-changer. It ended his Wisconsin slump and set the stage for an across-the-board sweep next Tuesday in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut, and Rhode Island.

Trump’s vote count exceeded his pre-primary polling average by nearly 10 percentage points. Perhaps most important, the win gave him 89 more delegates for the RNC July convention.

So Trump is now the prohibitive favorite to win the GOP nomination — although there is still much dispute about this. But I believe, even if he comes up short of a majority 1,237 delegates, he will still get a first-ballot victory. There will be roughly 190 uncommitted delegates at the Cleveland convention. And Trump, with his art of the deal, can be very persuasive.

What the GOP Can Learn from The Oscars

 

Trump OscarsEven after a big win for Donald Trump in the New York primary last night, it is still likely that no candidate will arrive at the convention with a majority of the delegates on the first ballot. A recent Wall Street Journal/NBC poll showed that 62% of republicans feel that the candidate with the most delegates should be the nominee, despite not having a majority.

One of the issues with this poll – that was discussed on a recent episode of the FiveThirtyEight election podcast – is how the question was asked. One wonders the outcome if the question was “should the party nominee be a candidate who the majority of the party did not vote for?”.

This is the trouble with accepting the winner of a plurality, rather than a majority. It becomes more probable that people will reject the winner rather than coalesce around an acceptable alternative.

Live from New York, It’s Tuesday Night!

 

This is a preview from Friday morning’s The Daily Shot newsletter. Subscribe here free of charge.

The Daily ShotTuesday, the Empire State went to the polls. New York is a big deal because it’s nominally the home state to three of the four leading presidential contenders. (Well, four of five if you include George Pataki.) Bernie Sanders is from Brooklyn (which explains the accent). Donald Trump is from Queens (which explains … a lot). And Hillary Clinton is a 100 percent authentic New Yorker who bought a mansion in Chappaqua to meet the residency requirements to run for Senate from a state she’d never lived in. (Not that we’re still bitter or anything…)