Tag: Rule Brittania

This week James reports in from an undisclosed location (his evil genius lair, no doubt) and he and Toby review the week’s doings, from the latest on the Covid lockdowns to the foolishness of the multi-culti wokeness of the BBC and their plans for this year’s Proms.

We get their views on the Biden-Harris ticket (or is that Harris-Biden?) and the prospect of Donald Trump’s re-election, plus our cultural reviews, highlighted by the very disappointing Greyhound with Tom Hanks on AppleTV.

Technical Analysis of Futures and Brexit

 

brexit-658338Author’s Note: This post is solely political commentary and does not constitute a recommendation to take a position long or short in the instruments mentioned. Futures trading involves risk well in excess of initial margin requirements to trade these leveraged instruments.

Several members and contributors reference various betting markets and their predictive power for certain political decisions and elections. I always enjoy their posts and comments, but given my daily work in futures markets, haven’t visited the betting markets.

Futures markets, like betting markets, can sometimes be predictive of possible outcomes in that they reflect commitments by a group of people who are well capitalized and hopefully well informed. The size of the British Pound physically delivered foreign exchange futures market is notionally $24T (this is outsized compared to historical norms given the hedging activity associated with Brexit).