Tag: Rubio

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I don’t care much whether the Republican candidate is Cruz or Rubio. Either would be preferable to Clinton/Sanders or Trump, and I don’t expect either to shake the foundations if elected.  That said, the pre-election polling that indicates voters in general prefer Rubio to Cruz is not significant. Why? Because current polls are asking people […]

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I’m voting in the Texas primary tomorrow.   I’d like to wait until Tuesday so that I have more information, but that’s a very busy day at work.   I may get up really early and vote at 7:00 when they open then race to work. I’m a  Cruz supporter.  I’ve been planning to vote […]

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Cassius: “The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, But in ourselves, that we are underlings.”  Julius Caesar (I, ii, 140-141) (Names changed, but the people I discuss here are very real, and I’ve known them for decades).  Bob is a retired installer of siding and gutters, the son of another installer, and the grandson of […]

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What Did Rubio Learn And When Did He Learn It?

 
640px-Marco_Rubio_(16491577129)

Marco Rubio by Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0.

Let me start out with some due praise in defense of the embattled senator’s honor. It’s not that Marco Rubio’s a liberal. He was elected on the Tea Party wave and — before that — he was a leading light in Florida politics. He received numerous endorsements from the likes of Sarah Palin, Dick Cheney, and Mark Levin. And he is rightly commended as a credit to the Senate, the Republican party, and the conservative movement.

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Governor Romney is about to take incoming from the Trump firing squad. This afternoon he stated there is a bombshell in Trumps yet to be released taxes.  While Romney hasn’t endorsed any remaining candidates, one would assume he prefers the GOPe ticket over Trump. If his taxes are not released posthaste, are we looking at a window for Rubio or […]

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Nevada is over and we’re heading into Super Tuesday or the SEC Primary depending on which term you prefer this cycle. Donald Trump is busy warming up the fat lady and dragging a bow-tied pig in white gloves towards center stage with another smashing victory. Despite the fact that the GOP Nevada caucus was apparently chaotic, […]

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Where We Are After South Carolina

 

After taking a weekend to collect my thoughts and give myself a pat on the back about the effects of Nikki Haley’s endorsement of Rubio getting him second place in South Carolina let’s get down to brass tacks: What does it all mean?

Obviously it means a reprieve for Rubio, who successfully battled back from 5th place in New Hampshire, and another win for Donald and a big one; in a split field, he’s got the nomination on lock. Was it a terrible body blow for Cruz to come in third (politics goes by Toretto’s law, so don’t talk to me about ties)? Let’s go candidate-by-candidate again to take a look at how this can play out in the coming weeks before Nevada.

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Whenever you have Trump or Sanders types running in primaries, you hear the question “What if they decide to run as an independent?” This is usually uttered with a shudder of terror. “They’ll split the vote!” “The other side will win!” “Egad!” This year, of course, is different. The  eccentric candidates in the race might […]

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I opened my spam folder and found an email from Rick Santorum asking me to send money to the Rubio campaign. Not sure if that is news or not, but now I am wondering who will get the coveted Gilmore endorsement. Oh, that’s not all. It turns out that there are a bunch   of […]

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The South Carolina Primary: What to Watch For

 

shutterstock_371093699The New Hampshire primary had me eating crow with Kasich’s second place win: I bought the conventional wisdom from the polls that Rubio was going to come in second on his way to working the 3-2-1 strategy that his campaign was pursuing to the nomination.

But the post-New Hampshire spin has largely ignored Katich’s Kasich’s second place victory, since everyone was concentrated on the smashing Trump win and Rubio’s slide. As I expected Rubio’s, rebounded in the polling from his New Hampshire loss and seems to be in a strong third and possible second place in South Carolina.

I’ll bullet my three scenarios and then lay out probable spin based on placement for each candidate. I’ll be considering all February polls per RealClearPolitics. Sadly, we do not have an Emerson poll ready for South Carolina since they nailed Iowa and New Hampshire (relatively speaking).

Hands off the Nomination Process

 

HandI believe the prediction markets are correct and that the Democrats are more likely than not to win the presidency again this year. This has less to do with the Democrat’s talent than is has to do with the Republican brand’s failure to sell in national elections.

Republicans and Democrats have opposite problems this round: they’re running on the fumes from two generations ago; we’re too young and untried. Our talent was especially too young the last two times around and, this time, they are like those college athletes who “go pro” a year too soon. Our deep bench looked good from a distance but reality shows that our side is still very green. And what about the governors? My guess is the governor model of nominee sourcing has become too parochial. What appeals in Wisconsin, New Jersey, or Texas may not generalize to the rest of the country. But despite all this — and the likelihood that we’ll miss one of our best chances to meaningful strike down Obamacare– I’d rather be in our position than theirs.

As for our nomination process, the results so far are more a symptom than a cause of the Republican’s woes. Despite our two-party system, we really are a set of two multi-party coalitions. And new “parties” are spontaneously created without name or explicit organization. The Trump voters were always there and they aren’t any smarter or dumber than they were in the past; what’s new is the they had someone to coalesce around. If we’re going to have any hope of healing the coalitions’ wounds without Trump, he has to be beaten legitimately.

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My heart beats a little faster, my breath grows heavy. And my eyes widen as I read the gang of eight bill… I’m absolutely furious. Suffice it to say, that Phyllis is right. Rubio lied about most every thing. There is no requirement for any milestones of success, or completion of project, or achievement of […]

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I checked the delegate counts this morning and Rubio was sitting at 7, the same number he came out of Iowa with. I was under the impression that reaching the 10% threshold in New Hampshire netted at least 1 delegate. Not that it matters in the grand scheme, but I’m curious anyway. What gives? Preview […]

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At the debate, the gang of eight bill was brought up. Rubio said something like, it’s a non issue because it couldn’t / can’t pass. If that’s the case, then why pay attention to the Cruz amendments? So, I chimed in with a prediction: Rubio will never answer this question. I don’t believe there’s anything […]

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Rush did the unspeakable on his show today. His offense? Defending Rubio for his conservative principles. While he mentioned the “baggage” of the Gang of 8 bill as an issue, he lauded him as an otherwise solid right-winger, despite his “RINO” proclivities, of you know, being more conservative than Reagan. Preview Open

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Fivethirtyeight did an analysis awhile back calculating how well Cruz, Trump, and Rubio needed to do in each state to be considered “on track” to the 1,237 delegates needed for the nomination. This is based on the demographics of each state and how well they do in relation to their presumed voter strengths. As you can […]

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