Tag: Republican Convention

What Didn’t Happen

 

shutterstock_164855486After a month of horrible headlines — from the Islamist-inspired massacres in Orlando, France, and Germany, to a pair of (very different) shootings by police, to the assassinations of police officers in Dallas and Baton Rouge — it’s worth taking a moment to point out that the one incident the Left predicted didn’t actually happen. That is, despite Ohio’s open carry laws, handwringing op-eds from the usual suspects, and calls for Governor John Kasich to suspend the 2nd Amendment (he didn’t), and the hot tempers that often accompany Donald Trump, there wasn’t a single shooting around the GOP convention; from that perspective, the whole thing was a total disappointment. From an excellent piece in USA Today:

The city’s police union also pushed for a gun ban. Ohio Gov. John Kasich “could very easily do some kind of executive order or something — I don’t care if it’s constitutional at this point,” said Stephen Loomis, president of the Cleveland Police Patrolmen’s Association. “I want him to absolutely outlaw open-carry in Cuyahoga County until this (Republican National Convention) is over.”

Kasich resisted efforts to get him to abrogate the Constitution. “Ohio governors do not have the power to arbitrarily suspend federal and state constitutional rights or state laws as suggested,” he explained.

Member Post

 

There’s not a doubt in my mind that we are going to see left-wing violence on an unprecedented scale at the Republican Convention that will make ’68 Chicago look like a kindergarten playground quarrel. I call on Ohio Gov. Kasich to preemptively call out the National Guard to protect everyone at the convention and immediately […]

Join Ricochet!

This is a members-only post on Ricochet's Member Feed. Want to read it? Join Ricochet’s community of conservatives and be part of the conversation. Join Ricochet for Free.

Member Post

 

Regarding Trump’s putative “entitlement” to the Republication nomination because he has the most votes or most delegates, and within the understanding that a plurality is not a majority, there’s this that bears on the matter. Suppose Trump and Cruz (eliding Kasich and Rubio, one of whom has no real chance of gaining seriously on the […]

Join Ricochet!

This is a members-only post on Ricochet's Member Feed. Want to read it? Join Ricochet’s community of conservatives and be part of the conversation. Join Ricochet for Free.

Member Post

 

4/5 of the way there. Thanks to all of you who have contributed so generously to our fund to get Titus here this summer. Here’s the link to the site. Once we get to $5,000 we will purchase a flight ticket for Titus that has an open return date. He will choose a start date […]

Join Ricochet!

This is a members-only post on Ricochet's Member Feed. Want to read it? Join Ricochet’s community of conservatives and be part of the conversation. Join Ricochet for Free.

The GOP Nomination and the Rotten Boroughs Problem

 

1976_Republican_National_ConventionOf late, the GOP nomination process has favored those on their second try: Reagan failed in 1976 before winning in ’80; George H. W. Bush failed in 1980 before winning in ’88; Dole failed in 1988 before winning in 1996; McCain failed in 2000 before winning in ’08; and Romney failed in 2008 before winning in ’12. (We’ll come back to George W. Bush, the exception that proves the rule, in a moment.) But we shouldn’t be too hard on the GOP nominees failing the first time around because the process depends heavily on understanding the power of the GOP’s rotten boroughs.

To win the GOP nomination, a candidate must win a majority of the 2,472 delegates, which are allocated through a complicated series of formulas. The biggest problem is that these formulas create rotten boroughs, where a relative handful of voters in liberal parts of the country control more delegates than larger numbers of conservative voters elsewhere.

Let’s use an absurd hypothetical to demonstrate the actual absurdity of the 2016 nomination process. Let’s say the ghost of Nelson Rockefeller wins every delegate in every state that Barack Obama carried in 2012, while the reanimated corpse of Barry Goldwater wins every delegate in every state that Mitt Romney carried in 2012. Rockefeller would win the Republican nomination with 1,231 delegates to Goldwater’s 1,166 (these don’t quite total 2,472 total delegates at stake in 2016 because I’m not counting the territories like Guam and Puerto Rico, but given that they tend to vote Democratic, they’ll likely wind up with Rockefeller rather than Goldwater). In other words, the blue states outweigh the red states when picking the nominee. The Ethics and Public Policy Center’s Henry Olsen likes to make the point that somewhat conservative and moderate Republicans have a dominant role to play in the nomination process, and the rotten borough effect is a significant reason why. Some actual numbers might help illustrate what’s happening.

Member Post

 

Let’s play a game. Picture we were back in the days when the nomination process was a cryptic affair. We vote (or caucus) on delegates based on their wisdom and not on which candidate they promised to back. Then they all are sent to the convention with nothing decided before hand. Potential nominees would put […]

Join Ricochet!

This is a members-only post on Ricochet's Member Feed. Want to read it? Join Ricochet’s community of conservatives and be part of the conversation. Join Ricochet for Free.