Tag: President Trump 2018 midterm

House Call: By the Numbers

 

https://www.realpeopletalkingpolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/U.S.-CAPITAL-BUILDING-3.jpgWhat is the real final Democrat count in the House of Representatives? None of the presentations, of election information, make the House situation obvious. They could all use a remedial course in the visual presentation of quantitative information. The RealClearPolitics elections House results page is about the best, but allow me to make the situation really clear, laying out the numbers and then giving the historical context.

Running the Numbers:

As of Wednesday evening, there were several undeclared races. These, not displayed in the data summaries, are the source of confusion. So, here are the House facts, by the numbers, as of the evening of 7 November 2018:

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The aftermath of this midterm election has reenergized the perennial “straight ticket” versus “vote for the candidate, not the party” dispute. Some argue that President Trump, apparently uniquely among modern presidents, must be kept in check. Others argue that the Democrat Party has encouraged and condoned political violence and assaults on the fabric of our Constitution, […]

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Pressing the button to publish, it is 4:04 PM on the East Coast, with polls closing in under three hours. In our changing political terrain, most voters in many states have already cast their votes before Election Day, so the get out the vote (GOTV) campaign that remains is focused on those who value the […]

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Why Should Independents and Trump Democrats Trust Martha McSally?

 

There are significant reasons for the razor-thin race in Arizona between two Congresswomen. Martha McSally and Kyrsten Sinema are focused on getting the votes of the 3 to 6 percent still undecided. Martha McSally’s basic problem is overcoming the dead weight of the past two Republican Senators, who damaged the party brand for that critical subset of voters. I have urged Martha McSally to clearly declare herself on the side of the MAGA agenda, including the 2020 election, as Ambassador Nikki Haley did. Unfortunately, Congresswoman McSally has not. So what are these voters to do?

Arizona, as with many other states, has moved heavily towards mail-in ballots, and early voting at physical polling places. The fight, now, may be over only about 20 percent of votes in the election, if an estimated 80% cast early ballots. The currently counted early ballot statistics, by party registration, look similar to past years, so gives no strong support to any candidate approaching the winner’s circle. Since undecided voters have held off, there is a real fight to gain the election-winning votes.

Provided that there is near certainty of holding and growing the Republican majority in the Senate. There are reasonable grounds to reject Martha McSally, as the Arizona GOP favorite, punishing them for a primary and general campaign that suggests more of the same betrayal on core promises. There is a case to be made for a Senate election strategy of “elimination as addition,” that produces a more coherent majority, more faithful to the core promises made for the past 10 to 40 years.

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We can be lulled or driven to distraction with the polling political fantasy league. The converse problem is confirmation bias. We see what we want. The Senate seems to still be trending the Republicans’ way, as long projected. The House is trending towards a toss-up. Everyone has their favorite reader of palms, caster of bones, […]

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Another Letter to Congresswoman Martha McSally

 

https://media.breitbart.com/media/2018/10/Trump-McSally-rally-Arizona-getty-640x480.jpgDear Congresswoman McSally,

I deeply admired your true courage and integrity in your long fight to force the Department of Defense to live up to the Constitution, not subjecting military women to the outrageous demand they conform to a 7th Century dress code in a country we were keeping free from Iraq and Iran. I was pleased to cross your path in the Davis-Monthan photo facility, as I was taking another Army board photo, and you were getting a command photo. The Air Force did the right thing, eventually, despite your righteous, eventually public, fight against bad policy.

You seem stuck a week out, still unable to persuade about three to six percent of Arizona voters to commit, but you can overcome this reticence, if you show your military career courage and integrity. The weight holding you down is the recent history of the past two Republican Senators. You must show, not say, that you will not stray from your campaign promises.