Tag: Polls

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Cenk Uygur is a pundit on the very liberal ‘The Young Turks’ Youtube channel. He is a strong Sanders supporter, but much of what he says in this short (12 minute) video about Trump vs. Hillary is realistic, and he is a bit funny. Note especially what he says at the 7:10 and 8:10 points: […]

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From Harry Enten at Five-Thirty-Eight: There’s a belief, which I don’t share, that the growing share of nonwhite voters in the population, particularly Latinos, is giving Democrats an enduring advantage in winning elections. The theory — known to some as the “Emerging Democratic Majority” — works only if voting patterns stay the same and Republicans […]

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[Editors’ Note: this post contains the poll referenced on the Main Feed.] Back in late March — by which point the Republican Primaries had narrowed to Donald Trump, Senator Ted Cruz, and Governor John Kasich — we had a poll asking members where they stood on the candidates and whether they could support the then-frontrunner. […]

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With Hillary’s growing negatives, will Democrats feel they must nominate someone else to avoid a massive defeat? In the past few days Hillary’s negatives have exceeded Trump’s, and Trump now leads in the latest poll. (I had expected this to happen, but not till late June or July; and to be fair, Trump has likely gotten […]

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The ‘Young Turks’ is the name of a Youtube channel, and the members are very liberal. One of them, Cenk Uygur, is now warning Dems not to be complacent, or to assume that there is no way Trump could beat Hillary: https://youtu.be/os1cdoKKEAQ (He’s especially funny and pointed at the 3:40 point) From 7:30 he mentions that […]

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Today FoxNews reported that Clinton is slightly ahead of Trump in the battleground/swing states of Florida and Pennsylvania, and Trump is ahead in Ohio. One third of Dems voting today say they will vote for Trump if he is the nominee vs Hillary. Only one fifth of Republicans voting today would do the obverse and […]

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I don’t care much whether the Republican candidate is Cruz or Rubio. Either would be preferable to Clinton/Sanders or Trump, and I don’t expect either to shake the foundations if elected. That said, the pre-election polling that indicates voters in general prefer Rubio to Cruz is not significant. Why? Because current polls are asking people […]

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It’s crunch time in the primary process, and I’m seeing lots of people discuss various polls of candidate favorability. For those who want an in-depth look, check out the three articles I post below. They’re all from FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver’s site, which is top-notch when talking polling and likely outcomes. I think they tend to […]

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Every night, cable news shows offer countless polls that attempt to forecast the winner of this year’s presidential election. The polls are surveys of real people, ranging from likely voters, to adults, to people who may or may not stand in the cold for hours to caucus in Iowa. Then the news programs will use […]

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Marco Rubio, Still Our Best Hope?

 

MTE4MDAzNDEwODQ2MjU0NjA2The other day I put up a post noting, a) that Ted Cruz now leads in Iowa, and, b) that the dynamics of the race now make it look as though the junior senator from Texas might–repeat, might–wrap up the nomination in a hurry. Has Marco Rubio proven me wrong by regaining his footing in the polls? To the contrary. In the last few days he’s slipped, not gained.

But you know what? Although I like and respect Sen. Cruz, I still believe Sen. Rubio would make a stronger candidate in the general election. As Jonathan Last argues over at the Weekly Standard:

The theoretical poll match-ups show Rubio with a slim lead over Clinton. I think this vastly understates his potential. Watch Rubio on the debate stage and he looks like a creature genetically engineered in a lab to crush HRC. By dint of his youth and energy, he turns her greatest strengths into weaknesses. He’s a devastatingly good debater. As he showed Tuesday night, he can take a punch. And his political instincts are brilliant….

Update on the Ricochet GOP Primary — July Results

 

The Ricochet vote seems pretty well locked-up for the summer — Scott Walker still leads with a large margin — but I’ve included some new graphics that provide some interesting insights into where members go if their first choice falls through.

Let’s start with our standard tracking graph. Walker remains at the head of the field, with Perry and Fiorina following. I didn’t include Fiorina here (12.2%) because I wanted to maintain the structure of the graph tracking progress over recent months. If her support remains elevated in a month’s time then I’ll change up the list.July top four tracking

Betting On The GOP Nomination

 

I recently signed up for an account with PredictIt, a new site that’s replaced the long-defunct InTrade. While we’re tracking what the Ricochet members prefer and what the different pollsters around the country are researching I thought it would be interesting to get a unique perspective. This “poll” is interesting because it’s people putting their money where their mouth is.

With no further introduction, I present you the GOP nomination race according to the bettors. I’m willing to guess that this will be as close to the actual outcome as any poll out there.rnom16

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The country has moved left on everything. Republicans face electoral doom, unless they flee from, at the least, the “social issues” part of their platform. Or at least, so say the opinion polls. There is no doubt the cultural headwinds are leftward; but there is also no reason to believe the specific numbers are remotely accurate. […]

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Do polls serve the conservative interest? Do polls serve the national interest? Those questions come to mind in response to UK pollsters getting yesterday’s election all wrong, and talk of polling becoming ever harder in today’s world. At times, I’ve felt conservatives would be better off boycotting all poll questions. In practice, I rarely give […]

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A Federalist Moment

 
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By a factor of nearly three to one, Americans believe that state and local government is more successful at solving problems than Washington, D.C. In the just-released Heartland Monitor Poll sponsored by Allstate and National Journal, 64 percent of respondents said that more progress is being made by governments close to home compared to just 26 percent who chose the federal government.