Tag: Polls

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The ‘Young Turks’ is the name of a Youtube channel, and the members are very liberal. One of them, Cenk Uygur, is now warning Dems not to be complacent, or to assume that there is no way Trump could beat Hillary: https://youtu.be/os1cdoKKEAQ (He’s especially funny and pointed at the 3:40 point) From 7:30 he mentions that […]

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Today FoxNews reported that Clinton is slightly ahead of Trump in the battleground/swing states of Florida and Pennsylvania, and Trump is ahead in Ohio. One third of Dems voting today say they will vote for Trump if he is the nominee vs Hillary. Only one fifth of Republicans voting today would do the obverse and […]

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I don’t care much whether the Republican candidate is Cruz or Rubio. Either would be preferable to Clinton/Sanders or Trump, and I don’t expect either to shake the foundations if elected. That said, the pre-election polling that indicates voters in general prefer Rubio to Cruz is not significant. Why? Because current polls are asking people […]

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It’s crunch time in the primary process, and I’m seeing lots of people discuss various polls of candidate favorability. For those who want an in-depth look, check out the three articles I post below. They’re all from FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver’s site, which is top-notch when talking polling and likely outcomes. I think they tend to […]

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Every night, cable news shows offer countless polls that attempt to forecast the winner of this year’s presidential election. The polls are surveys of real people, ranging from likely voters, to adults, to people who may or may not stand in the cold for hours to caucus in Iowa. Then the news programs will use […]

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Contributor Post Created with Sketch. Marco Rubio, Still Our Best Hope?

 

MTE4MDAzNDEwODQ2MjU0NjA2The other day I put up a post noting, a) that Ted Cruz now leads in Iowa, and, b) that the dynamics of the race now make it look as though the junior senator from Texas might–repeat, might–wrap up the nomination in a hurry. Has Marco Rubio proven me wrong by regaining his footing in the polls? To the contrary. In the last few days he’s slipped, not gained.

But you know what? Although I like and respect Sen. Cruz, I still believe Sen. Rubio would make a stronger candidate in the general election. As Jonathan Last argues over at the Weekly Standard:

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I’ve frequently seen this theme illustrated in recent days by polling data on various different issues. (The results probably don’t come as much of a surprise to anybody that has read The Myth of the Rational Voter by Bryan Caplan) More

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Promoted from the Ricochet Member Feed by Editors Created with Sketch. Update on the Ricochet GOP Primary — July Results

 

The Ricochet vote seems pretty well locked-up for the summer — Scott Walker still leads with a large margin — but I’ve included some new graphics that provide some interesting insights into where members go if their first choice falls through.

Let’s start with our standard tracking graph. Walker remains at the head of the field, with Perry and Fiorina following. I didn’t include Fiorina here (12.2%) because I wanted to maintain the structure of the graph tracking progress over recent months. If her support remains elevated in a month’s time then I’ll change up the list.July top four tracking

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Promoted from the Ricochet Member Feed by Editors Created with Sketch. Betting On The GOP Nomination

 

I recently signed up for an account with PredictIt, a new site that’s replaced the long-defunct InTrade. While we’re tracking what the Ricochet members prefer and what the different pollsters around the country are researching I thought it would be interesting to get a unique perspective. This “poll” is interesting because it’s people putting their money where their mouth is.

With no further introduction, I present you the GOP nomination race according to the bettors. I’m willing to guess that this will be as close to the actual outcome as any poll out there.rnom16

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The country has moved left on everything. Republicans face electoral doom, unless they flee from, at the least, the “social issues” part of their platform. Or at least, so say the opinion polls. There is no doubt the cultural headwinds are leftward; but there is also no reason to believe the specific numbers are remotely accurate. […]

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Do polls serve the conservative interest? Do polls serve the national interest? Those questions come to mind in response to UK pollsters getting yesterday’s election all wrong, and talk of polling becoming ever harder in today’s world. At times, I’ve felt conservatives would be better off boycotting all poll questions. In practice, I rarely give […]

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Contributor Post Created with Sketch. A Federalist Moment

 
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(Click to embiggen)

By a factor of nearly three to one, Americans believe that state and local government is more successful at solving problems than Washington, D.C. In the just-released Heartland Monitor Poll sponsored by Allstate and National Journal, 64 percent of respondents said that more progress is being made by governments close to home compared to just 26 percent who chose the federal government.

This federalist sentiment was shared by people across nearly every group, independent of age, gender, education level, personal wealth and region. When the question was expanded to include state and local institutions like businesses and nonprofits, the gap with national organizations increased to a 69-22 split. National Journal interviewed some Americans about the findings:

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