Tag: Polls

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One of the striking features of this election has been the talk about the integrity of the process and the integrity of our institutions. Trump keeps making the case that system is “rigged,” that the forces of the political class have conspired and are continuing to conspire to stay in power and consolidate that power […]

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Trump has often criticized polls for understating his support. He attributes this to what’s known (by others, not him, I’m sure) as social desirability bias. His hypothesis is that supporting Trump is a socially undesirable response which people will not want to offer in a survey, especially when they’re speaking to a live interviewer. It’s […]

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I’ve grappled with a question since the presidency of George W. Bush: just how important is the president? I think most Republican voters agreed that he meant well, and the constant media harping about how dumb he is was overdone. I liked him, I voted for him. But I was never really convinced that he […]

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In early August, I wrote a post analyzing polling information obtained from Real Clear Politics. Please see that post for important background information. This entry updates that analysis to include a total of 134 polls taken between June 8 and Oct 23, again restricted to 4-way polls. Of the 32 polls since Oct 1, only […]

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Dogs That Do Not Bark

 

campaign-signs-president-1In November 2012, I learned that times had changed and that I no longer knew my country. I could not believe that, after what he had done to the US, my compatriots would re-elect Barack Obama — and I was wrong.

This year, I could not believe that Donald Trump would get the Republican Presidential nomination. He was not, to begin with, a Republican at all. He did not embrace the agenda Republicans at least pretend to support. And, let’s face it, he has not lived his life in a manner that anyone with a moral sense and aesthetic taste could approve. Anyone who is surprised at the remarks he made to Billy Bush has been wearing blinders. No one of his stripe, thought I, could get nominated. But, once again I was wrong.

Nor, earlier this year, could I believe that the Democratic Party would nominate Hillary Clinton for President. She was, I knew even then, a corpse. She had no pulse. Had you told me that Bernie Sanders — who is one of the few Democrats who more nearly resembles the living dead than Hillary — would be her only serious opponent, I would have guffawed. Tell me another, I would have said. Yes, I was wrong.

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Its been another month and its time to go back and check the polls to see how Trump is doing in comparison to his 2008 and 2012 predecessors. Has he finally risen above the McCain Standard? Is he doing better than Romney did? What are Trump’s chances of winning? Is the current polling fitting a […]

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Welcome to the Harvard Lunch Club Political Podcast for Tuesday, October 4, 2016. It’s the Hillary Heads for Home edition. We are former congressional candidate and nano-physicist Mike Stopa and radio talk host and newspaper editor Todd Feinburg, and this week we analyze

  1. the disastrous week that Donald Trump has inflicted on his campaign since the debate of last Monday night.
  2. Then we interview John Derbyshire, a longtime conservative writer whose hardline work currently appears at alt-right site VDare.com. We talk to John about the Trump candidacy. He explains why he’s voting for Trump even though he doesn’t necessarily support Trump.

We’ll also have our Shower Thoughts, and our Hidden Gem comes from folk-singer Stan Rogers and his song about (what else) a boat called The MaryEllen Carter.

Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America applaud Congress for overturning an Obama veto by huge margins and allowing 9/11 families to sue Saudi Arabia. They also sigh as Fox News is forced to tell their hosts that online polls about who won Monday’s debate are not the same as a scientific poll. And they wonder what Gary Johnson is smoking as he fails to name a single leader he respects. Actually, we’re pretty sure we know what he’s smoking.

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http://www.news.com.au/national/politics/fortynine-per-cent-of-australians-support-a-ban-on-muslim-immigration-survey-finds/news-story/eebc8b0115811eef638b918eb8e862e0 To the surprise of the left a new poll has suggested that 49% of Australians would support a ban on Islamic immigration with 40% opposed, of course leftist MP’s have blamed the poll on the influence of One Nation leader Pauline Hanson, while I disagree with many of One Nation’s policies (particularly there protectionist trade […]

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While Trump is leading in the polls in Ohio over Hillary, that wasn’t the case months prior. Putting aside the factors that helped her gain the nomination, Hillary never convincingly won over the Democratic base. Therefore Trump now beating Hillary’s prior polling leads is not surprising. The pattern that can be learnt from the 2016 […]

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Mark Hemingway of The Weekly Standard and Mollie Hemingway of The Federalist discuss the 2016 November elections. This week they discuss NBC’s Commander in Chief Forum, and the polls showing Clinton and Trump trading places.

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Positive movements for Trump in some national polls, but the presidential election is won in the states with the electoral college and Hillary Clinton has comfortable leads in almost all the battleground states, including Virginia, Pennsylvania, Florida, and my home state of New Hampshire. Preview Open

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Its been a month since my last article relating to this issue and its time to go back to the polling averages at RCP for 2008, 2012, and today. Let’s see who is/was doing best against their opponent. Some on Ricochet have stated that Donald Trump is doing better than they had hoped. But the […]

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It’s been a while since we’ve conducted any Ricochet polling and — as I believe @nickstuart suggested — there are plenty of non-Trump topics out there to explore among the Ricochetti. So, with no further ado, what topics and/or questions would you like to see put to your fellow members? Political? Personal? Serious? Flippant? We’ve been remiss […]

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Big Swings Do Too Happen

 

On the latest GLoP podcast, @johnpodhoretz noted that polls show Trump down by some eight points, then said that a Trump victory would require a swing “of a kind that is unprecedented in recent history.” (I’m quoting John from memory. I may have a word or two wrong, but you get the idea.) With respect to John — and I do have the greatest respect for my old friend — that isn’t quite correct.

Consider 1980: One week before the election, as the chart below makes clear, Ronald Reagan could claim the support of only 39 percent of likely voters. On Election Day, he won with 51 percent of the vote — a swing of 12 points.

Mark Hemingway of The Weekly Standard and Mollie Hemingway of The Federalist discuss the 2016 November elections.

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A common comparison that has been made by some on Ricochet that support trump is that he has been doing better against Clinton than Romney did against Obama in the polls. This is somewhat intuitive I gander since one of trump’s favorite talking points is that he wins in the polls and it is generally […]

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