Tag: Polls

The coming midterm election is more than a litmus test of the Trump presidency. It’s also a continuation of a fourth cycle of political polarization dating back to the Civil War. David Brady, the Hoover Institution’s Davies Family Senior Fellow, explains the sorting-out in the election – a possible surge in women voters, Trump loyalists’ enthusiasm, and the two parties dealing with their respective ideological differences in elections nationwide.

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With the polling data available, how does the discerning citizen make sense of the Trump presidency and the probabilities in the upcoming midterm election? David Brady, the Hoover Institution’s Davies Family Senior Fellows, offers his viewers’ guide for how to track U.S. politics in the months ahead.

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Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America welcome a new poll showing nearly half of Americans hold a positive view of the Republican tax bill and are bullish on the economy, although they are not ready to give Trump and the GOP credit. They also wince as Democrats win a usually safe Republican seat in the Wisconsin State Senate, and Gov. Scott Walker urges GOP members and activists to make sure people know about their significant accomplishments. And they sigh as President Trump’s doctor gives the commander-in-chief a clean bill of health, but White House reporters still ask the physician a litany of repetitive questions about Trump’s mental health and whether he he is fit to serve under the conditions of the 25th Amendment.

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Contributor Post Created with Sketch. Should We Just “Right Off” the Millennial Voters?

 

Are Republicans doomed when it comes to Millennial voters? If so, then the GOP is doomed…period.

Millennials are the largest group of voting-aged Americans, and that numerical superiority will only increase as the Baby Boomers die out. Listen to the Talk-Right and you’ll hear a lot of talk about simply writing these voters off: “Kids don’t vote, anyway!”

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Sunday the 24th, my neighbors and friends here Germany will be heading to the polls to vote in the elections for the Bundestag. Will it be “Carry on as before” or not is the question on everyone’s mind. T-Online, Der Spiegel, Die Zeit and Die Welt, all predict the expected results as being something like […]

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Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America sigh as public squabbles between President Trump and GOP congressional leaders and members leaves us wondering if they will get anything consequential accomplished by the end of the year. They also wince as terrible poll numbers for President Trump on several questions reflect what may be a rough road ahead for Republicans in 2018. And they roll their eyes and unload on Hillary Clinton over her new book excerpts.

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Where does President Trump stand in the opinion polls now that his second hundred days in office are complete? David Brady and Doug Rivers, both Hoover senior fellows and Stanford political scientists, reveal data showing where Republicans and independents stand on this presidency and what if any effect developing news in Charlottesville and North Korea might have on Trump’s popularity.

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Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America condemn Republican Senators John McCain, Susan Collins, and Lisa Murkowski for failing to deliver on their campaign promises to repeal and replace Obamacare during a vote late Thursday night, while also stressing the mistakes made by GOP leaders and the major flaws in the “skinny repeal”. Jim mocks new White House Communications Director Anthony Scaramucci for threats and vulgar comments about his colleagues, underscoring already fractious conditions in the new administration. In an attempt to end the week on a good note, Jim and Greg discuss a new poll showing that more fans stopped watching the NFL last season because of the national anthem protests than for any other reason.

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As Donald Trump’s presidency passes the five-month mark, Hoover senior fellows Dave Brady and Doug Rivers share their polling on Trump’s support from Republicans and independents, plus his policy strengths and weaknesses. We also take a further look at the significance of the United Kingdom’s “snap” election, which Doug Rivers correctly forecasted (words not often said about pollsters these days!).

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Hoover political scientists David Brady and Doug Rivers diagnose the Trump presidency’s health based on polling data and the state of antiglobalization populism on the eve of France’s presidential vote. Will European Union resentment, like many a would-be invader, fail to make it across the English Channel?

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Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America are glad to see Americans more optimistic about the nation’s direction than they have for a long time. ‘Morning Joe’ co-host Mika Brzezinski is worried that Pres. Trump is trying to control what people think because that’s her job. And they discuss MSNBC’s Katy Tur having no idea what a GOP congressman was talking about when he said Pres. Obama promised greater flexibility with Russia once his re-election was over.

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Contributor Post Created with Sketch. Polls Apart

 

I ran into my longtime political consultant, frat buddy, and pollster, Phil A. “Buster” Mignon, who handled numerous campaigns for me when I was an influential international political force. Fortunately, neither of us was hurt in the collision, but his Smart Car was totaled. I lifted its remains into the trunk of my baby blue Edsel.

I had barely pushed the first gear button on my Edsel’s dash before Buster began to bring up the crazy hijinks we pulled off in college while we both pursued advanced degrees in White Privilege Studies. He had me guffawing. And you, of all people, should know how much I love to guffaw.

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Recommended by Ricochet Members Created with Sketch. Trump: “If you like your light bulb you can keep your light bulb”

 

hillary-lyingI know we’re supposed to pretend that Trump’s victory isn’t just another example of Obama underestimating the JV team. As for the president’s impressive 53% approval rating, I can only ascribe it to the state he has left his party in.

It’s know it’s hard to believe that being called deplorable, racist, xenophobic, nativist, fascist and jingoistic might make one reticent around pollsters, but here you have it: Donald Trump is learning the nation’s most-guarded secrets while Hillary Clinton is learning to drive to drive a car (a lot of good it will do her in Saudi Arabia.) If we could harness the awesome power of Republican schadenfreude we wouldn’t have to worry about climate change. 

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Contributor Post Created with Sketch. The Return of Andrew Jackson

 

If you want to get a proper sense of the significance of what happened yesterday, just look at the vote in Washington DC. In our nation’s capital, according to Real Clear Politics, Hillary Clinton won 92.8% of the vote and Donald Trump, 4.1%. Sure, DC is a heavily African-American city, and black Americans are loyal Democratic voters. But there are plenty of non-black Americans in the town, and they now form a majority. What this means is that our political class and their minions were united against the man — and this was, in fact, the stance of our business elite as well. None of the CEOs of the top 100 corporations gave his campaign a dime, and no major newspaper endorsed the man.

I can remember back in 1980 when Ronald Reagan came to DC. His arrival and the formation of a new administration was like the arrival in a country of a foreign army. The Donald’s takeover will be an even more dramatic event. It will be as if William Jennings Bryan had won in 1896. The only analogue that I can think of is the inauguration of Andrew Jackson. But he had already had a long career in public life — most notably, as the general victorious at the Battle of New Orleans and as a United States Senator. Trump has no such pedigree — though, like Jackson, he is a hero to the excluded.

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So I was looking at the exit polls, and it lists results for the question: “Do you have a favorable opinion of . . .” Favorable Opinion of Only Clinton: 98% Clinton, 1% Trump (41% of all voters) More

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Contributor Post Created with Sketch. Member Post

 

One of the striking features of this election has been the talk about the integrity of the process and the integrity of our institutions. Trump keeps making the case that system is “rigged,” that the forces of the political class have conspired and are continuing to conspire to stay in power and consolidate that power […]

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Trump has often criticized polls for understating his support. He attributes this to what’s known (by others, not him, I’m sure) as social desirability bias. His hypothesis is that supporting Trump is a socially undesirable response which people will not want to offer in a survey, especially when they’re speaking to a live interviewer. It’s […]

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I’ve grappled with a question since the presidency of George W. Bush: just how important is the president? I think most Republican voters agreed that he meant well, and the constant media harping about how dumb he is was overdone. I liked him, I voted for him. But I was never really convinced that he […]

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