Tag: Polling

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Just saw this and thought it was interesting how close some of the approval numbers are between Obama and Trump. I must note, however, that Obama was much more popular in the beginning of his first term though not at the start of his second. You can see the number here for Trump. And here […]

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When so many polls got it so wrong this past November, is polling dead as we know it?   We sit down with Kristen Anderson, co-host of the Pollsters podcast, to understand exactly what went wrong and how pollsters are adapting to the changing political landscape.

A Conversation with Mollie Hemingway

 

Ricochet’s own Mollie Hemingway, Senior Editor at the Federalist, joins us at Whiskey Politics on the Weekly Standard cruise to discuss the Democrats post-election freak out, political correctness, academia, the current state of the media, polling, and fake news. Mollie suggests what the Trump administration should focus on in the first 100 days and answers the most asked question from Ricochet members.

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That’s what one political science professor in Great Britain says: Pollsters often struggle to predict a Tory majority in referendums and elections because Conservative voters are busier and far more difficult to get hold of, eminent political scientist John Curtice has said. Preview Open

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Here’s another interesting exit poll result.  If you slice the electorate into “White Evangelical or Born-Again Christians,” on the one hand, and “Everybody Else,” on the other, Trump’s success in 2016 is entirely explained by better performance among White Evangelicals. White Evangelicals were 26% of the electorate in 2008, 2012, and again in 2016. Preview […]

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Trump has often criticized polls for understating his support. He attributes this to what’s known (by others, not him, I’m sure) as social desirability bias. His hypothesis is that supporting Trump is a socially undesirable response which people will not want to offer in a survey, especially when they’re speaking to a live interviewer. It’s […]

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The Good News and Bad News in Gary Johnson’s Polls

 
Click to expand.

Click to expand.

Gary Johnson’s campaign for President has lately had a mix of bad and good news in the polls — more on that in a moment — but the poll on the front page of yesterday’s Washington Post definitely is one he will be talking about. Using SurveyMonkey online methodology, the survey measured voter opinion in each of the 50 states over the past month. And it finds the Libertarian candidate to be a serious factor in the race.

The headline finding for Johnson is that he reaches 15 percent of the vote or better in 15 states, and 10 percent or better in 42 states, that is, all but eight. The states where he makes the strongest showing are his own New Mexico (25 percent); Utah (23 percent); Alaska, Idaho, and South Dakota (19 percent); Kansas (17 percent); Colorado, Iowa, North Dakota, and Washington (16 percent); and Maine, Minnesota, Nebraska, Rhode Island, and Wyoming (15 percent).

Coalition Politics and the Respect Gap

 

handshake-respectEconomist Bryan Caplan sought to explain why so few Asian Americans support the Republican Party, despite their seemingly aligned philosophies. Asians would seem to be natural Republicans, as they tend to be highly entrepreneurial and have socially conservative traits, including low rates of single motherhood (lower than whites, actually). Yet, despite this, Asians vote for Democrats in higher proportions than even Latinos.

In an earlier most, Caplan looked to the 2012 Presidential Election for examples of what he calls “the Respect Motive.” In that election, Romney won the following demographics: whites, people with income > $50k, whites under 30, white women, and independents. Meanwhile President Obama won majorities of: non-whites, people with income < $50k, non-whites under 30, and non-white women. Caplan observes:

In terms of objective material well-being, it’s unclear whether Romney or Obama would be better for any of these groups. In terms of respect, though, the difference seems pretty obvious. At least to me.

What Pollsters Worry About

 

I found this article really informative: Flashpoints in polling, by Pew. They cover many of the issues that have been debated in the wake of some significant recent pollster fumbles. Here are some of the highlights, with links to the research in question:

Contrary to claims that the decline of landlines has polling “teetering on the edge of disaster,” there is solid evidence that well-designed telephone polls are as accurate, if not more so, today than they were a generation ago.

Let’s All Go to the Polling and Get Ourselves Some Facts

 

TrumpClinton_1458169673550_976759_ver1.0There’s been a lot of talk here about the candidates’ characters, legal challenges, personal outlooks towards out-groups, and so on. But, for a moment, let’s step back from emotion and look at something more concrete: polls. National and state polling are still getting their acts together — only Rasmussen is polling on a week-to-week basis for the general election — but we can get a sense of the trend lines to try to understand where the race currently is and how it might proceed from here.

(A few notes about the polls I’ll be citing, all of which are from Real Clear Politics. In 2008, RCP’s polling average was quite accurate, predicting a 7.6 percent popular vote victory for Barack Obama, who won by 7.3 percent. Despite our head-in-the-sand act four years later, RCP’s polling average correctly called the election, though not as accurately:Tthey projected that the president would win by a mere 0.7 percent; in actuality, he had a 3.9 percent advantage over Mitt Romney.)

Currently, Hillary Clinton holds an averaged 4.7 percent advantage over Donald Trump. If immediate history is any guide, this means that she would win by anywhere from 4.7 to 8 percent if the election was held today. This should be distressing for all center-right voters, although the #NeverTrump among us would be slightly less-dismayed than those at least willing to vote for Trump over Clinton.

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Last spring, I received a very long and quite interesting polling phone call. The caller wanted to know my nuanced position on a host of immigration issues. I was allowed to explain that my biggest concern with immigration was that, if we could not expect current law to be enforceable, there was no apparent reason […]

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Why Did the Pollsters Blow It on Kentucky?

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ffqny2antM

Ladies and Gentlemen of Ricochet, I meant to spend the day taking you on a dreary tour of European Nazi-land, but I got so caught up and excited about following the results of the off-term elections that I didn’t write that post. I figure the Nazis will still be here tomorrow, though, and that you’ll forgive me for taking a detour, because these election results really are pretty interesting, no?

Cyberdyne Systems, Inc. Upgrades ‘Hillary’ with Spontaneity Chip

 

It’s amazing what campaign technology can accomplish these days. Over the weekend, the New York Times reported that nearly lifelike candidate Hillary Clinton will be upgraded with new features including “humor,” “heart,” and “spontaneity.” Engineers at Hillary HQ are confident the new programming will improve her electoral prospects as soon as her personal reset button is activated.

HillaryTerminator

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If cutting off funding won’t work, then try a more direct approach: Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, a 2016 GOP presidential candidate, is calling on mayors of sanctuary cities to be arrested as accomplices to the crimes illegal aliens receiving special treatment in their cities commit. Preview Open

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Polling Bias

 

shutterstock_118832743-2As I was scouting the returns on Tuesday evening — in preparation for and during the Ricochet podcast — I noticed that in a number of races the polls were way off. No poll that I know of predicted anything like the landslide Tom Cotton achieved in Arkansas; none suggested that the Senatorial race in Virginia would be a cliff-hanger; none gave Scott Walker anything like the margin of victory that he received in Wisconsin. I could go on.

There were, however, so many races taking place that I was unable at the time to discern whether this was a general trend, and by the time that I had a few moments free to look into the question (which is to say, this morning), Nate Silver had run all the numbers. Here is a taste of what he has to say:

For much of this election cycle, Democrats complained the polls were biased against them. They said the polls were failing to represent enough minority voters and applying overly restrictive likely-voter screens. They claimed early-voting data was proving the polls wrong. They cited the fact that polls were biased against Democrats in 2012.