Tag: Nate Silver

Join Jim and Greg as they welcome steady progress in reopening schools, as nearly half of U.S. school districts are now open for in-person learning. While understanding the desire to exit Afghanistan, they’re wondering whether President Biden has learned anything from his botching of the U.S. departure from Iraq that helped trigger the rise of ISIS. And the short fuse of the Biden administration is on display again after left-leaning probability expert Nate Silver criticizes the decision to pause the Johnson & Johnson vaccine.

Member Post

 

It’s crunch time in the primary process, and I’m seeing lots of people discuss various polls of candidate favorability. For those who want an in-depth look, check out the three articles I post below. They’re all from FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver’s site, which is top-notch when talking polling and likely outcomes. I think they tend to […]

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Two reminders based on demographics: First, the “Turn Texas Blue” movement is just a fundraising ploy, not a serious campaign. While state R’s might act stupidly enough to get punished at the polls, there’s no reason to suspect Texas will go blue in Presidential elections anytime soon. Dems tell their donors that the growing Hispanic […]

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Polling Bias

 

shutterstock_118832743-2As I was scouting the returns on Tuesday evening — in preparation for and during the Ricochet podcast — I noticed that in a number of races the polls were way off. No poll that I know of predicted anything like the landslide Tom Cotton achieved in Arkansas; none suggested that the Senatorial race in Virginia would be a cliff-hanger; none gave Scott Walker anything like the margin of victory that he received in Wisconsin. I could go on.

There were, however, so many races taking place that I was unable at the time to discern whether this was a general trend, and by the time that I had a few moments free to look into the question (which is to say, this morning), Nate Silver had run all the numbers. Here is a taste of what he has to say:

For much of this election cycle, Democrats complained the polls were biased against them. They said the polls were failing to represent enough minority voters and applying overly restrictive likely-voter screens. They claimed early-voting data was proving the polls wrong. They cited the fact that polls were biased against Democrats in 2012.