Tag: Midterms

Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America begin handing out the prestigious year-end Three Martini Lunch Awards. In this first installment, they offer their individual selections for Most Underrated Political Figure, Most Overrated Political Figure, and Most Honest Political Figure. Yeah, we know there aren’t too many nominees for that last one.

Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America applaud columnist Ruth Margolis for blasting liberals who demand that parents must immerse kids of all ages in politics and the social justice movement.  They also wince at the evidence Republicans may have lost congressional seats in states like California and New Jersey because they limited how much residents could use their state and local tax bill to reduce their federal tax payments.  And they react to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell urging Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey to appoint defeated Senate candidate Martha McSally to the state’s other Senate seat if Jon Kyl steps down before 2020.

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This is RightAngles, Culture Correspondent, reporting from behind enemy lines. Dog Whistles! They’re all around us! Tweeeet! I hate to be an alarmist or anything, but has anyone noticed the number of commercials that have the slogan “Better Together” or “Stronger Together”? In case you are from Mars or have been in a cave, those […]

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Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America welcome the news that American pastor Andrew Brunson was moved from a Turkish prison to house arrest, and they condemn the bogus allegations that Brunson provided aid for the failed coup.  They also welcome the news that the ten most popular governors in America are Republican— great news in a year when most governorships are on the ballot. And they condemn the insanity of Santa Barbara, California, threatening fines and jail time for restaurant servers handing out plastic drinking straws without being asked, but Jim also sees a fantastic business opportunity there.

Welcome to the HLC podcast for March 27, 2018 it’s edition number 168, the Rack of the Stormy Clifford Daniels edition of the show with your hosts Todd Feinburg the radio guy and Mike Stopa the nanophysicist. This week we will talk about Stormy and also the Republican challenge to hold Congress in 2018 (is it even worth it?).

The big (and we do mean yuge) story of the weekend is the Anderson Cooper interview of Stormy Daniels for 60 Minutes. Compelling TV! Intelligent woman! Even credits to A.C. for a legitimately, er, probing interview (the jokes write themselves here). First question: did it happen or didn’t it? Inquiring minds want to know. Next question: who really cares? Well, we’re talking about it, so i guess we do.

Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America are pleasantly surprised to see incoming Democratic Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam back away from pushing Medicaid expansion, much to the consternation of liberals.  They also shudder as a  new generic poll of voters suggests Republicans are in for a very rough 2018, as Democrats lead big among women and young people and even hold slight edges among men and senior citizens.  And Jim sounds off on actor Matt Damon’s insistence that he never knew about any of Harvey Weinstein’s alleged sexual assaults and harassment.

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MARIJUANA AND PLASTIC BAGS Most of us are old enough to remember when plastic grocery bags were legal but not marijuana. If envy really is the only deadly sin which does not provide even temporary pleasure, then it’s my unhappy lot to look on as Colorado, Alaska, Oregon and Washington (state and District) legalize recreational marijuana […]

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So you voted. What do you want — a medal? When did voting become the adult equivalent to riding a bike without training wheels? For that matter, when did it become the only right which comes with a sticker?  No other right comes with a sticker. You never see stickers which read “I bought a gun today,” which makes much more […]

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Inside the Republican Victory

 

Not sure how many of you read this, but it’s a fascinating account from Robert Costa in the Washington Post. A few really interesting things that I pulled from it:

1.  The Pat Roberts campaign was really flatlining and would have lost had it not been taken over by the RNC.  This was a Weekend at Bernie’s moment. Mental note: don’t run out-of-touch 78-year-olds and expect them to win. Oh, and Dole is still the big dog in Kansas, at age 91.

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Let us savor last night’s Republican victories. They were not preordained — they reflect the effort and intelligence of many hard-working candidates and their staffs (both paid and volunteer). But then, we should also reflect on the fact that last night contained some disappointments too — and that those disappointments were not preordained, either. Personally, […]

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The Rule of 13 in House and Senate Elections

 

If you want to predict House or Senate elections, a useful notion is what I call the Rule of 13. It says that if a district is misaligned with your partisanship by more than 13 points, then, to a close approximation, you have zero chance of winning that district. The rule predicts the following: (i) Mark Pryor is sure to lose his Senate reelection bid in Arkansas, (ii) Mitch McConnell is sure to win his reelection bid in Kentucky, (iii) if voters become convinced that challenger Greg Orman is, for all intents and purposes, a Democrat, then Pat Roberts is sure to win his reelection; (iv) although Alaska, Georgia, Louisiana, and North Carolina are conservative states, they are not conservative enough to invoke the Rule of 13; accordingly the Democratic candidates in those states at least have a chance of winning; (v) although the West Virginia 2nd and 3rd House races are called “tossups” by some prognosticators, the Rule of 13 says that the Republican candidates (Alex Mooney and Evan Jenkins) will win for certain.

The Rule of 13 is formally defined as follows. First, define the partisan index of a district according the most recent presidential vote in that district. For example, consider the situation of Rep. Mike Ross (D-Ark.) near the end of his sixth term in office, 2010-12. At that time, the most recent presidential election was the 2008 race between John McCain and Barack Obama. In Ross’s district (based on lines redrawn after the 2010 census) McCain received 166,247 votes and Obama received 103,478 votes. McCain’s share of the two-party vote in the district was thus 61.6%. Meanwhile, McCain’s two-party vote share in the nation was 46.0%. Define the partisan index of Ross’s district as the difference of those two numbers. Thus, the district’s partisan index was “Republican 15.6.” (The Cook Political Report constructs a similar “Partisan Voting Index,” except it bases its number on an average of the prior two presidential elections. Some research I’ve conducted suggests that the partisanship of a district follows a random walk, which implies that only the most recent presidential election is relevant in predicting the political views of a district; prior elections do not provide any more information.)

Just in Time for the Midterms

 

AkinFailed U.S. Senate candidate and amateur embryologist Todd Akin is releasing a defensive cri de coeur just four months before crucial midterm elections.

The press made the Missouri Republican the face of 2012’s imaginary “war on women,” fueling female turnout for President Obama’s re-election. The same media outlets are gleefully highlighting Akin’s autobiography before its eventual consignment to bargain bins in heartland bookstores.

Does Akin use the opportunity to apologize for helping Democrats retain the Senate and the White House? Not so much: