Tag: Jobs Report

Bobby Jindal, former governor of Louisiana, stops by to talk to the full crew about How Trump Wins the Populist Patriots and how that particular group has been ill served by Democrats and Republicans alike and what Republicans can do to win their support. The Jobs Report is out with “unexpectedly high” numbers: 266,000 new non-farm jobs. Remember when the reports were always “unexpectedly low” under Obama? Rob attempts to explain why Obama is responsible for Trump’s great economy even though he hedges his bets by saying presidents can’t control the economy. Then John Yoo, detainee at UC Berkeley, joins the podcast, again, to talk impeachment. John has the most beautiful suggestion for what Trump should do, should there be an impeachment trial in the Senate. You’ll want to hear this one because it’s a winner. Big league. And if you disagree, let us know in the comments.

Finally, congratulations to @garymcvey for winning the prestigious Lileks Post of the Week competition for his post, On Her Majesty’s Secret Service: This Never Happened to the Other Fellow. We only hand out 52 of these per year, folks.

Jim Geraghty of National Review and Chad Benson of Radio America celebrate a positive July economic report, as unemployment drops to 3.9 percent and the economy adds 157,000 jobs. They also criticize The New York Times for hiring reporter Sarah Jeong, who made racist comments about white people. And they break down reporter Bill Scher’s unappealing offer for Never-Trump Republicans to join the Democratic Party, as long as they accept that their policies will not win.

Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America look at the possible pros and cons of President Trump meeting face-to-face with Kim Jong-Un, hoping there’s a shot at progress but realizing the North Koreans have no track record of honesty.  They also fume as radio chatter from the Florida high school shooting confirms Deputy Scot Peterson knew right away that shots were being fired inside the building, a direct contradiction of his earlier explanation that he did not enter the building because he thought the shots were coming from outside.  And they celebrate a robust jobs report, with over 300,000 new jobs added in February.

A Downer of an August Jobs Report. But Maybe Not for Trump.

 

Consensus opinion is that the August jobs report was lousy. For starters, the 156,000 net new jobs created by employers last month missed the consensus forecast of 180,000. Payroll gains for June and July were revised lower for a net loss of 41,000 jobs. The jobless rate ticked up to 4.4% even as the participation rate stayed steady and the employment rate ticked lower. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% month-over-month, the weakest since November 2016. “August’s employment report was disappointing across the board,” is how Capital Economics put it.

But I wonder if Team Trump sees things the same way.

May Jobs Report: Bad But Not Terrible

 

The US employment rate ticked lower last month, and at 4.3% fell to its lowest level since May 2001. But that’s pretty much where the good news ends. Job growth was just 138,000 versus Wall Street expectations of 180,000, and the prior two months were revised down a net 66,000 jobs. (Though it seems the calendar played a role here. The payroll survey week may have been a bit too early to capture students going to work at summer jobs.)

Moreover, the jobless rate fell “for all the wrong reasons,” notes Capital Economics. The decline was driven by the labor force participation rate falling 0.2 percentage point to 62.7%. The employment rate fell by the same amount.

What about paychecks? This from JPMorgan: “The dreary realities on labor supply have been reasserting themselves in recent months. On wages, the gradual 2015-2016 acceleration has stalled so far this year; average hourly earnings rose a modest 0.2% last month and the year-ago increase was unchanged at 2.5%.” So as Deutsche Bank argues, perhaps 2.5% wage growth is the news 3%, especially given weak productivity growth.

Member Post

 

Both as a candidate and as the president-elect, Donald Trump has been summarizing his economic policy in three words: Jobs, jobs, jobs. It could very well be that this focused message and the country’s belief that he would do much better delivering on this promise than Hillary Clinton is a major reason — perhaps the […]

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August Jobs Report: The Most Boring Economic Expansion Ever Keeps Being Boring

 

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As I tweeted about the August jobs report: “So 151,000 new August jobs, under expectations. Unemployment, employment, participation, and U-6 rates all stay the same.” I could also have tossed in the meh numbers on wage growth (slowed a bit, though keep in mind inflation is quite low) and long-term unemployment (stable but high).

IMO, nothing to change the presidential race or give the Fed reason to hike. Regarding the latter point, just slow enough. Indeed, odds of a September rate hike by the Fed have fallen to 18% from 24% yesterday. Certainly not everyone agrees. Barclays:

The March Jobs Report: Is the Great Recession Finally Over?

 

Is the US job market back, finally? One interesting data point in the March employment report: the US economy added 192,000 private-sector jobs last month, pushing private payrolls to 116.09 million. That level surpasses the former high of 115.98 million reached in January 2008.

Hardly an insignificant milestone, and one that shows how far the labor market recovery has come. Although the American economy has been growing since summer 2009, a return to prerecession private-job totals is also an important marker. Perhaps, one could say, we’ve even returned to normal.