Tag: Inflation

With Winter Coming, 20 Million Americans Are Behind on their Utility Bills.

 

A favorite polling firm is TIPP Insights, which has been conducting public opinion surveys such as the IBD/TIPP poll for about 30 years. I follow their work closely. Their polling of the 2016 presidential election (Trump v. Hillary) was spot on.

This weekend, they published the results of a new survey that should scare incumbent Democratic officeholders on the ballot on November 8th, at least the ones (all of them in Congress) who voted to hose the economy with over $5 trillion in inflationary spending over the past two years and are still at it (and that’s not counting the trillions spent during the pandemic when the Trump Administration shut down the economy). Our money supply (M2) has grown more than 40 percent since February 2020. Even most Democrats blame Biden’s policies for runaway inflation. Yelling “Donald Trump!” and “Abortion!” and other shiny objects isn’t going to save them.

Quote of the Day: The Economy and Government Mismanagement

 

“The Great Depression, like most other periods of severe unemployment, was produced by government mismanagement rather than by any inherent instability of the private economy.” – Milton Friedman

We are going to see a repeat of this over the next year or two.  We are headed for recession, and possibly depression (although no one will call it that) even if the Republicans take over control of both houses of Congress next year. Part of that is due to existing inflation. But an even larger part will be due to government mismanagement.

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  I’m not a person that understands the stock market all that well, but I remember someone significant in the media saying watch the bond market – when that goes South, head for the bunker, because all hell is soon to break loose.  Why is that?  This was back during the last disastrously dip and […]

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Join Jim and Greg as they breathe a sigh of relief that a rail workers strike is averted, although they’re curious to see the terms of the agreement. They also sigh as Biden again claims costs are going down as he hails the announcement. They’re also pleasantly surprised to see New York Times columnist Tom Friedman scolding the left to get serious about fossil fuel production as a way both to help Europeans in the face of Putin cutting off natural gas and for the U.S. to produce energy at levels that renewables cannot possibly match. Then they roll their eyes as the left freaks out over red state governors sending a few migrants to blue parts of the country but as no interest in dealing with the thousands of people crossing our southern border illegally every day. Finally, they remember former Independent Counsel Ken Starr and how the Democrats and the media turned him into a villain for investigating the unconscionable conduct of President Clinton.

Join Jim and Greg as they get a kick out of Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly tripping all over his words when asked whether he thinks President Biden is doing a good job. They also applaud Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for giving some of his huge campaign funds to help elect other Republicans in his state, and they hammer Charlie Crist his for comparing DeSantis to Satan and himself to Christ. Finally, they cringe at the latest horrible inflation numbers that are getting worse in many ways, even as the Biden administration tries to convince us things are getting better.

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My discussion question for today: In a world with global and highly-efficient transportation and communications…and billions of people who are accustomed to low wages…is it possible for a country such as the United States to maintain its accustomed high standards of living for the large majority of its people?…and, if so, what are the key […]

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Mrs. Tabby and I just returned from dinner at a modestly priced restaurant that is part of a regional chain (dinners in the $12 – 15 range). We rarely eat out more than once per week, so our observations of restaurants are a bit hit and miss. It’s been a few months since we were […]

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Quote of the Day: Inflation

 

“Inflation is as violent as a mugger, as frightening as an armed robber and as deadly as a hit man.” — Ronald Reagan

I graduated from college and began my career in 1979. Inflation had been out of control since the first oil shock in 1973. Jerry Ford, despite a well-intentioned attempt to Whip Inflation Now, had not.

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Wisdom, honesty, truth and common sense go a long way – in politics and life.  So it’s hard to believe the words coming out of the president’s mouth that conservatives, mainly those that support a “Make America Great Again” philosophy, are now considered “semi-fascists”.  This is a lie.  Biden is labeling people because they want […]

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Join Jim and Greg as they welcome the news that badly outspent GOP candidates are getting an infusion of $160 million from Mitch McConnell’s Super PAC for the final push to November. They also shudder as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says he will be acting aggressively to rein in inflation but that many people will feel “pain” in the meantime. And they hammer the FBI after Facebook Founder Mark Zuckerberg tells Joe Rogan how the Bureau told Facebook to be on the lookout to confront expected Russian disinformation. That led Facebook to limit the reach of posts related to the Hunter Biden laptop story.

Join Jim and Greg as they are glad to see a new poll showing the Ohio Senate race narrowly favoring the GOP. They also grimace as the Fed expects inflation to stay stubbornly high for awhile – even with persistent interest rate hikes. And they fire back at former NSA and CIA Director Gen. Michael Hayden for absurdly agreeing that Republicans in the U.S. are the most “nihilistic, dangerous, and contemptible group” recently seen anywhere in the world.

Join Jim and Greg as they assess Rep. Liz Cheney getting trounced in the Wyoming congressional primary, her odd Lincoln reference in her speech last night, and whether she is really planning to run for president in 2024. They also shake their heads as the political left and their media allies drop the bogus talking point that their massive spending bill reduces inflation and admit it’s just advancing their big government goals on climate policy and more. And they hammer Washington, D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser for continuing to demand that all students be vaccinated for COVID before being allowed in schools when up to 40 percent of black students remain unvaccinated.

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Theodore Dalrymple notes that inflation is more than a purely economic phenomenon…it also has profound social and psychological effects.even characterological effects: For one thing, inflation destroys the very idea of enough, because no one can have any confidence that a monetary income that at present is adequate will not be whittled down to very little […]

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Join Greg and Scot Bertram as they hammer the Biden administration and Democrats for promising a bill to lower inflation but really just spends more, taxes, more, and harasses middle class Americans. They also wonder what is happening at The Atlantic as it publishes a story downplaying far-left attacks on pro-life organizations but blasts the pro-life community for pointing out that it’s happening. And they sigh as the World Heath Organization won’t be honest about how to stop monkeypox but it’s super worried that the name monkeypox could be stigmatizing.

 

Fiscal-policy expert and MI senior fellow Brian Riedl joins Brian Anderson to discuss Joe Manchin’s reconciliation deal on climate change, health care, and taxes; new subsidies for the semiconductor industry; and the future of federal policymaking in an inflationary environment.

Find the transcript of this conversation and more at City Journal.

Join Jim and Greg as they find a glimmer of hope in Sen. Sinema’s silence thus far on the Manchin-Schumer bill. They also wince as another reports high inflation is here for at least several more months. And they shake their heads as Dr. Oz is polling at just 36 percent in Pennsylvania and is badly trailing an opponent who hasn’t campaigned in more than two months.

 

Jim and Greg comment briefly on the news that President Biden tested positive for COVID Thursday morning. Then they dive into the New York Times series on columnists admitting things they got wrong. They welcome the admission from Bret Stephens that he was very wrong about Trump voters and they had many, many good reasons to be thoroughly fed up with politicians who stiffed them culturally, economically, and otherwise for decades. They also slam Gail Collins for her self-serving column about writing too much about Mitt Romney’s dog during the 2012 campaign. And they hammer Paul Krugman for saying he was wrong about inflation but then spending the rest of the column trying to explain how he really wasn’t.

 

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Price inflation can be a complex phenomenon.  I think that the best long run explanation for inflation is excessive monetary growth.  In the short run, however, unusual events can trigger inflation.  Such unusual events can range from natural disasters, to wars, to a variety of policy decisions. The latest annual inflation figures are out today, […]

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Join Jim and Greg as they shudder at the news of 9.1 percent inflation over the past year. They also sigh as President Biden tries to claim the inflation report is “outdated” because gas prices have fallen since June. And they ‘re not happy to see a new generic congressional ballot poll showing Dems with a slight advantage.

 

The Black Swan Just Had a Hundred Babies

 

The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.  The term is based on an ancient saying that presumed black swans did not exist – a saying that became reinterpreted to teach a different lesson after the first European encounter with them.  The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb starting in 2001 to explain:

  1. The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.
  2. The non-computability of the probability of consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).
  3. The psychological biases that blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and a rare event’s massive role in historical affairs.

Taleb’s “black swan theory” refers only to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history.  [Source: Wikipedia]

Several red flags that an impending recession, following the inflation we are currently in, may be far more extreme than has been predicted, and quite possibly be something we haven’t seen in our lifetime.  I’m not shouting conspiracy.  I like to have a heads up so I can prepare within my abilities, and so offer the following observations that I’ve encountered: