Tag: Futures

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I exchanged emails with some developers in the U.K., young programmers today. They are apprehensive about the prospect of leaving the EU and planned to vote after work. I didn’t press them for specifics, but my take is that they will vote Remain. I’ve heard of banks, funds, and traders that were going to pay […]

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Author’s Note: This post is solely political analysis regarding the Brexit referendum and not a recommendation to take long or short positions in the instruments described. Futures trading involves risk of losses greater than original margin capital.  Ten days ago I posted an article examining predictive power of the U.S. futures markets as it related […]

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Technical Analysis of Futures and Brexit

 

brexit-658338Author’s Note: This post is solely political commentary and does not constitute a recommendation to take a position long or short in the instruments mentioned. Futures trading involves risk well in excess of initial margin requirements to trade these leveraged instruments.

Several members and contributors reference various betting markets and their predictive power for certain political decisions and elections. I always enjoy their posts and comments, but given my daily work in futures markets, haven’t visited the betting markets.

Futures markets, like betting markets, can sometimes be predictive of possible outcomes in that they reflect commitments by a group of people who are well capitalized and hopefully well informed. The size of the British Pound physically delivered foreign exchange futures market is notionally $24T (this is outsized compared to historical norms given the hedging activity associated with Brexit).

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I originally produced this paper for clients and in support of the National Security Investment Consultant Institute (NSIC) regarding spoofing when the Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed its complaint against Navinder Sing Sarao in April 2015 charging him with manipulative conduct related to the May 2010 ‘Flash Crash’. Mr. Sarao is awaiting trial, but an important milestone is occurring the […]

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The first Friday of most every month is widely followed in markets because the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Employment Situation report including private non-farm payrolls used to measure job creation. Additionally, other scrutinized statistics include employed population, unemployed, civilian labor force, unemployment rate, part-time, over time, etc. The report is the most widely followed and […]

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