Paul Ryan will convincingly win his primary election tomorrow. This has never really been in question: Ryan was never going to be “Cantored.” Not only are the two men different — Ryan is a more skillful politician, more popular, more grounded in the district he represents — but their challengers are different, and the political terrain is strikingly different. It doesn’t take a detailed knowledge of Virginia or Wisconsin to understand these things, only a basic familiarity with each states’ politics that any remotely serious journalist or politico can figure out. Any news source or influential figure who has been selling the idea that Ryan is likely to lose, treating Paul Nehlen as more credible than Ryan’s last primary challenger, or drawing a shallow comparison to Eric Cantor’s defeat should be considered less than reliable. They’ve done nothing to defeat Ryan. They have simply enabled a scam.

Cantor’s defeat was a surprise but not a mystery, and serious analysis would put it in context of the confusing, frustrating mess that is Virginia Republican politics. The last disastrous year of the McDonnell administration and the Cuccinelli-Bolling primary left a bitter taste. A new citizen trying to learn the ropes discovers the typical unhelpful mainstream-media coverage, a semi-conservative paper or two, and a few feuding blogs run mostly by political operative types, all claiming the “conservative” mantle and tearing the others down. I learned much about arcane feuds over party procedure, not very much about actual policy debates, and ended thoroughly disenchanted with both the “establishment” and “tea party” sides. There are some solid conservative leaders in Virginia, but the conservative political environment is muddled, divisive, and distrustful. It is a perfect environment for a revolt against an out-of-touch DC insider. Dave Brat was a local credible candidate seizing on widespread local frustrations. If the same causes led to Trump’s Virginia win, local results do not quite match up: on March 1, Marco Rubio won 35 percent to Trump’s 32 percent in the 7th congressional district. Brat’s home turf doesn’t fit any simplistic narrative.

In Wisconsin the conservatives have taken over the establishment, and the result is a serious, practical conservatism. The political debate is shaped by a powerful talk radio presence creating an electorate reasonably informed on the issues in the state. Nothing I’ve found in Virginia matches this level of analysis of state budget issues or court cases or primary elections; you can usually know if your legislator is up to something, and you can make an informed decision. Conservatives fought tough, bitter battles to elect a governor, legislature, and supreme court — and they do not believe those efforts were wasted, because they have seen meaningful results. They are proud of what they’ve achieved, and they’ve seen how hard it is to truly fight. They know that Scott Walker and Paul Ryan have extremely difficult jobs, and activists such as the Racine Tea Party founder consider Ryan one of their own and don’t appreciate someone coming from outside calling him a globalist sell-out traitor: