Tag: epidemiology

Member Post

 

A group of oncologists estimate that 60,000 people in the UK will die of cancer because they were unable to get adequate treatment due to COVID-19 restrictions. I am torn about what to think about this estimate. Why should one trust the prognostications of a group of oncologists any more than one trusts the prognostications […]

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COVID Congratulations!

 

Congratulations should be in order. The public health leadership asked us to give them time, to change our lifestyles to slow the progression of the disease.  At great personal and social cost, we successfully flattened the curve. We bought time for the medical and research professionals to catch up. Outside of the New York City DeBlasio Debacle, we did what everyone was asking of us, and the results are showing it. This should be a time to start relaxing the lockdown, as it has succeeded outside of NYC. Tim Carney speaks for me here.

What’s utterly infuriated to me is that a lot of people are trying to claim this is a failure.

The Perils and Pleasures of Modeling

 

The term ‘model’ is much in the news, and I’m not talking about @RightAngles trade. It’s the term apparently favored by the media to describe a general area that may also go by: cybernetics, system dynamics, advanced statistics, simulation, control theory, and others. Having some academic and professional background in the domain, this is my (inevitably simplified) attempt to sketch its limits, so you can be smarter than the average journalist.

So, simplifying, as warned: There are two types of models. One is broadly statistical in approach. The other attempts to be more mechanistic.

Member Post

 

There’s a concept in epidemiology of the cycle of disease. It works like this: I have some pathogen. I sneeze it out onto my hand. I touch the door knob. You touch the door knob. Your touch your eye. You have the pathogen. And the cycle continues. (This is a good diagram of how that […]

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