Tag: election day

Join Jim and Greg as they lay out their fearless – and conflicting – predictions for who will win the White House. They also explain who will win the tightest Senate races and which side will control the House. They shake their heads as reports of electioneering inside polling places and refusing GOP poll watchers pop up in Philadelphia. And they react to New Jersey announcing no in-person votes will be counted for at least a week.

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Oh, Lord! Donald Trump will be president?! I have the vapors! The way the Lefties (meaning, pretty much everyone) at my work in New Sodom (a.k.a., the entertainment industry in Los Angeles) are carrying on this morning, one would think that much-bandied-about Sweet Meteor of Death had hit – and right at George Clooney’s house, […]

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At my polling place in central Los Angeles, there were already about two dozen people in line when I arrived just before the polls opened at 7 A.M. Voting moved slowly thanks to a whopping seventeen ballot initiatives – with more than a couple of the vaguely-worded “funding for students and education” ones that always […]

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In its continued effort to suppress voter turnout, the polls in North Carolina opened at 6:30 am. I arrived at my polling location a bit after 6:20, and the line was long. One of my neighbors was 3rd in line. She offered her spot for $20, but I felt standing in the cold for some […]

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Contributor Post Created with Sketch. Likelihoods

 

If I were inclined to bet on tomorrow’s results, I would probably roll my eyes and put my money on Hillary Clinton — assuming, that is, that someone gave me equal odds. As I write, at 8:35 p.m. EST on the eve of the election, she is ahead in all but one of the head-to-head polls listed by Real Clear Politics. The only poll that has Donald Trump ahead in a two-way race is the LA Times tracking poll, which has him up by 5%, and the IBD/TIPP tracking poll (which was the most accurate poll in 2012) has Mrs. Clinton up by 1%. If one turns to the four-candidate polls, the IBD/TIPP tracking poll has Trump ahead by 2%, and everyone else has Hillary in the lead.

It may, nonetheless, be considerably closer than this data suggests. In his latest election update, Nate Silver, who called every state correctly in 2012, gives Trump a 31% chance of winning the Presidency, and he breaks it down state by state.