Tag: Economy

Contributor Post Created with Sketch. Is America’s Nearly 150-Year Streak of Steady Growth at an End?

 

Call it the New Normal or Great Stagnation, but there’s plenty of concern that America’s weak 2000s growth rate — before and after the Great Recession and Financial Crisis — is a harbinger of anemic growth to come. And GDP has indeed been weak, just 1.9% annually since 1999 vs. 3.6% from 1948-99.

Yet if you look at GDP growth on a per capita basis and compare it to America’s longer-term growth trend, it doesn’t look nearly so dire, as NYU economist William Easterly points in a tweet — “That horribly traumatic Growth Slowdown in the US may not actually exist” — highlighting this chart from Stanford economist Charles Jones:peth_09-72016

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A friend recently dipped his toes into Patreon, an online resource of “recurring funding for artists and creators”, in hope of diversifying his sources of income. Best I can tell, Patreon is akin to the more popular Kickstarter service but focuses on recurring patronage as opposed to crowdfunding of particular projects. And who do I see […]

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Ronald Reagan’s policies of reducing regulations, negotiating a deal with Asian exporters to stop devaluing their currencies, and lowering taxes lead to a robust economy which created twice the number of jobs and twice the Gross Domestic Product seen in our current vaunted ‘recovery’. Economist Peter Morici explains: Read More View Post

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Contributor Post Created with Sketch. Texas the Best State to Start a Career, California the Worst

 

Best Cities CareerWalletHub recently did a study showing graduating college students the 10 best and 10 worst places to start a career. To create the lists, the financial site reviewed the number of entry-level jobs, median starting salary, and housing affordability, then tossed it to their roomful of abacus jockeys to add up the results.

First for the best cities: Unsurprisingly, four of the top 10 are located in Texas, and nine are west of the Mississippi. Salt Lake City took the top spot.

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First a movie recommendation: I finally watched The Big Short (I know, I’m behind) which detailed several risk-hardy investors who, in 2007-08, bet against the housing market. Since I watched the movie, I am now of course an expert who can share his opinion about the financial crisis. One of the takeaways was how obvious the signals […]

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Last night’s dinner with a baker’s dozen group of friends quickly turned to the election. Not one person was happy with the choices between: “a crazy”, “a preacher” and “a criminal” (no one was considering berning socialistic). There was no topic discussed that hasn’t been bludgeoned to death on Ricochet, so I’ll refrain from imparting what folks are saying […]

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Some weeks or months ago, we discussed the differences between virtual reality and augmented reality. Microsoft hopes to break open the latter market with their HoloLens device. In this advertisement, you can see how various businesses have partnered with Microsoft to incorporate augmented reality into their work. Read More View Post

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The CFO survey by Duke University is named by the International Strategy and Investment (ISI) as one of the 15 most important leading economic indicators. The survey polls CFOs who anonymously provide information about their company’s business plan for the coming year, providing a very accurate forecast of future economic conditions. In the March of 2015 survey, 47% […]

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From ETWN News: [….] Last month, a new federal law was enacted to prohibit importation of goods made with forced labor into the U.S., a big boost in the fight against labor trafficking.Since the 1930 Tariff Act, which prohibited such importation, one clause exempted this prohibition for when “consumptive demand” required such goods be imported. […]

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Promoted from the Ricochet Member Feed by Editors Created with Sketch. The “R Word” Is Here and Now

 

recessionAs politicos focused on South Carolina and Nevada, my company was running a weekend roundtable for business owners, where we train and break bread with real people facing real challenges due to the real economy. These people aren’t statistics. They aren’t categorized or sliced and diced into compartments that make up an axis on some government chart. The employees they have laid off don’t consider themselves as U3, U6, or U12. They are real people with real families and real bills.

It is not news that many sophisticated business owners consider the “recovery” weak, at best, and think the economy is most likely in recession. While the equity markets bounce around like a beach ball in the stands of a sporting event, the real fundamentals are causing pause for even the most bullish among us. Now Bloomberg Business reports that recession is already here in several states.

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Are we having fun yet? This morning I spent time trying to get a sense of who thinks the new year financial route will turn around or, as some bears are calling for: “S&P could plunge 75% to 550”. The phone calls with clients and industry friends felt like that moment Roy Scheider said “we’re gonna need a […]

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Something about this Yahoo story rubs me the wrong way. Online retail giant Amazon said on Thursday it will donate the profits from the online purchase of a tune released by the far-right anti-migrant PEGIDA movement to refugees in Germany. [….] Read More View Post

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What distinguishes product discounts that undercut the developer/publisher from discounts which improve developer revenue or at least benefit the retailer without cutting into developer profits? When Amazon puts a product on sale, whose cut is that discount taken from? Not all sales are the same, of course. But how often does a retailer reduce or […]

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Contributor Post Created with Sketch. Liftoff at Last

 

shutterstock_273355862In a move more hinted, heralded and harkened than the Christmas birth, the Federal Reserve finally moved on raising the Fed funds rate. It had talked about this for months, with Yellen and friends deciding in September to hold off after indicating to the market it would move then. As I wrote then, the Fed blinked in the face of pressure from global market.

When the Fed chooses to hold off on a rate increase it had telegraphed a month ago, it is saying its information is that the economy is worse than you think. When confidence is dented and GDP falls, the Fed will congratulate itself. When the economy turns around next, the Fed will say it wants to raise rates, and China will get the vapors again, and the blinking returns.

Contributor Post Created with Sketch. GOP Not Yet There on Growth

 

shutterstock_76996180The singular economic issue of our time is the quest for more rapid economic growth. In the past century the American economy grew at roughly 3.5 percent per year. That included huge booms and even worse busts, such as the Great Depression.

But over the past 15 years that growth has slumped to roughly 2 percent per annum. This has put average Americans in a cranky mood. They want change.

Contributor Post Created with Sketch. Are Democratic Presidents Really Better for the Economy Than Republican Ones?

 

HillaryClintonPartisans are likely to focus on these stats in Paul Krugman’s latest column: Since 1947, “the economy grew, on average, 4.35 percent per year [under Democrats]; under Republicans, only 2.54 percent.”

To his credit, Krugman does not make strong claims about the superiority of Democratic economic management (though he does mock current GOP policy proposals). Neither does the 2014 study, from where those numbers come, “Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration.” The study’s authors, Alan Blinder and Mark Watson, sort of give it the old ¯\_(ツ)_/¯:

Promoted from the Ricochet Member Feed by Editors Created with Sketch. Driverless Trucks in Australian Mining. Now What?

 

013505-robot-trucks-pilbaraThe Financial Times reports that the world’s second-largest mining company, Rio Tinto, has begun incorporating driverless trucks into its fleet. The anointed expert for this article says not to worry:

Dr Boehl said embracing technology could create more interesting jobs while making lower-skilled positions obsolete.

Promoted from the Ricochet Member Feed by Editors Created with Sketch. US Recession Dead Ahead?

 
Hedgeye.com
Hedgeye.com

Shorter: Absolutely, without a doubt.

Longer: Absolutely, without a doubt. But when?

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The first Friday of most every month is widely followed in markets because the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Employment Situation report including private non-farm payrolls used to measure job creation. Additionally, other scrutinized statistics include employed population, unemployed, civilian labor force, unemployment rate, part-time, over time, etc. The report is the most widely followed and […]

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