Tag: Demographics

Contributor Post Created with Sketch. How We Can Easily Feed a Planet of 11 Billion

 

shutterstock_252173746-e1423860273200How big will global population be in 2100? Some 10 or 11 billion, according to the UN. But some demographers think that estimate is way too high. Back in 2013, I blogged about a projection from Sanjeev Sanyal of Deutsche Bank. His calculations find the world’s overall fertility rate falling to the replacement rate in 2025, although global population will continue to expand for a few decades thanks in part to rising longevity: “We forecast that world population will peak around 2055 at 8.7 billion and will then decline to 8.0 billion by 2100. In other words, our forecasts suggest that world population will peak at least half a century sooner than the UN expects and that by 2100, and that level will be 2.8 billion below the UN’s prediction.”

But what if the UN is right? How can we feed all those people? It actually wouldn’t be that difficult, according to the World Bank’s Heinz-Wilhelm Strubenhoff in a piece over at Brookings. He runs through the math, but I wanted to highlight two things. First, plenty of existing farmland isn’t being used efficiently: “Farmers in the Netherlands produce 8.6 tons of cereals per hectare, Ukrainian farmers produce 4 tons per hectare, and yields in Nigeria are stagnant at 1.5 tons per hectare.” Second, we waste so much: “The average European is wasting 179 kg of food in the value chain from the farm gate to the lunch or dinner table. This is almost the annual consumption of a poor person mainly living on cereals (200 kg).”

More

Promoted from the Ricochet Member Feed by Editors Created with Sketch. Children of Men

 

shutterstock_144224743Tell me if this story sounds familiar. It’s about this weird dystopia where a married couple with two young kids is looking to buy a new house and is desperate to find a neighborhood simply populated with other children. They currently reside on a suburban block that — not so many years ago — had young kids in almost every home, but now has more dogs than children on the sidewalks. It’s as if the neighbors stopped having babies for some mysterious, unknown reason. Thinking the lack of offspring may have some weird relationship to the proximity to an urban core, the couple finds itself looking at homes further and further out to find families with young kids.

As they look for a new home, the couple pays less attention to the houses themselves than the number of swing sets, sports equipment, and toys strewn in their potential neighbors’ yards. Whenever a neighbor is spotted near a potential home, he is accosted with questions of how many little ones are around. The wife of the couple even suggests following the local school bus after class lets out to see where kids live but the husband sees this as a step too far into creepy madness and a good way to get arrested. This may sound like the latest Syfy original movie premiering on Thursday after Sharknado 3, but it was how I spent my last weekend.

More

Member Post

 

I noticed this interesting graphic in Ricochet’s Twitter feed. What observations might we make based on this image shared by Daniel Pipes? More

Join Ricochet!

This is a members-only post on Ricochet's Member Feed. Want to read it? Join Ricochet’s growing community of conservatives and be part of the conversation. Get your first month free.

Member Post

 

We know that world demographics are changing, but the nature of that change is explained in this video way better than a bunch of dry statistics: More

Join Ricochet!

This is a members-only post on Ricochet's Member Feed. Want to read it? Join Ricochet’s growing community of conservatives and be part of the conversation. Get your first month free.

Member Post

 

The vote in Iowa was a surprise. It went 7 more points in the GOP’s favor than expected. And while there was issues with the polling, this was a special outlier. As Harry Enten of FiveThirtyEight puts it: [Mainstream*] voters in Iowa without a college degree have shifted away from the Democratic Party. And if that shift persists, […]

Join Ricochet!

This is a members-only post on Ricochet's Member Feed. Want to read it? Join Ricochet’s growing community of conservatives and be part of the conversation. Get your first month free.

Contributor Post Created with Sketch. Demographic Churn

 

For a number of years, Republicans have been told that demographic shifts will ensure their party is reduced to a permanent minority status. Democrats have consoled themselves through many electoral losses by sobbing gently into the pages of The Emerging Democratic Majority, and similar tomes. A mixture of more minority voters, and a generation of young people who find the Republicans to be out of touch, has been scheduled to doom the GOP in national elections.

Or will it? In what will surely come as a surprise to Democrats, young people do not remain young forever. Time marches forever onward. A new crop of barbarians arise each year, and their voting preferences aren’t as straight forward as Democrats would prefer.

More

Contributor Post Created with Sketch. Young and In Trouble

 

This map, from Pew researcher Conrad Hackett, tells an interesting story:

BzHX8T7CMAA04jt

More

Contributor Post Created with Sketch. Millennials, Now at 50%

 

Young people love Obama, right?

Not so fast. From the WSJ:

More

Member Post

 

Former Ricochet member RJ Moeller of Hashtag Productions drew my attention to this article at Family Studies. If, like me, you thought measuring divorce rates was a simple matter, you would apparently be wrong: To oversimplify a complex story: the United States has been lousy at collecting data. Individual counties may keep pretty good track […]

Join Ricochet!

This is a members-only post on Ricochet's Member Feed. Want to read it? Join Ricochet’s growing community of conservatives and be part of the conversation. Get your first month free.