Tag: Demographics

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Sorry, couldn’t resist. Mark Steyn once joked about Mitt Romney’s annual gathering in Utah as the ‘GOP Spectre board meeting’. Well Lord Ashcroft, former Conservative Party deputy chairman and owner of the excellent Conservative Home website, gave a speech to Mitt’s band of goons this year. Far from being a secret plan to destroy the […]

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In a version of the “Spirit of McCain,” it’s time for a little straight talk about how conservatives, traditionalists and Republicans need to understand and approach the coming mid-term elections. The Democrats are becoming a coalition of “woke” anti-racist white progressives and various minority tribes, of non-whites and pathological whites, arrayed against the GOP’s mostly […]

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The example of Japan is frequently raised as a warning sign of the dangers of “Demographic Decline.” If current trends continue, Japan is set to experience a decline in its population, which will also be growing much older. This is why, we are lectured, we need to avoid Japan’s fate by importing as many young, […]

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An article in the March/April Issue of Victoria Magazine described a woman who married for money, then later fell in love with her husband. They eventually divorced, and she left her home state of California for a small town in Virginia. The selling point was a set of railroad tracks through the center of town. She purchased […]

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Trump’s Picks

 

donald-trump-cabinet-list-of-appointmentsEarly last week, Michael Barone published a piece analyzing the election returns in which he focused on the manner in which “the double-negatives” — those who thought highly neither of Donald Trump nor of Hillary Clinton — broke at the very end decisively for the former. Here is the way he put it:

One reason polling may have been misleading, or at least misled many of us in the psephology racket, is that this is the first presidential election since random sample polling began in 1935 in which most voters had negative feelings toward both major party candidates.

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I’m putting this in my too-good-to-be-true file: kids of post-millennial “Generation Z” are the most conservative generation in decades. They’re financially prudent and they’re even socially conservative. Okay, I can think of a few caveats: More

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Coalition Politics and the Respect Gap

 

handshake-respectEconomist Bryan Caplan sought to explain why so few Asian Americans support the Republican Party, despite their seemingly aligned philosophies. Asians would seem to be natural Republicans, as they tend to be highly entrepreneurial and have socially conservative traits, including low rates of single motherhood (lower than whites, actually). Yet, despite this, Asians vote for Democrats in higher proportions than even Latinos.

In an earlier most, Caplan looked to the 2012 Presidential Election for examples of what he calls “the Respect Motive.” In that election, Romney won the following demographics: whites, people with income > $50k, whites under 30, white women, and independents. Meanwhile President Obama won majorities of: non-whites, people with income < $50k, non-whites under 30, and non-white women. Caplan observes:

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The Future: More Religion in Scary Places; Less Religion Everywhere Else

 

shutterstock_340682378When did demographics get so depressing? It really has replaced economics as the “dismal science.” But at least with economics, you get market-based prices and (often) a tax cut. Demographics, as this recent study shows, is pretty much endless bad news:

People who are religiously unaffiliated (including self-identifying atheists and agnostics, as well as those who say their religion is “nothing in particular”) made up 16.4% of the world’s population in 2010. Unaffiliated populations have been growing in North America and Europe, leading some to expect that this group will grow as a share of the world’s population. However, such forecasts overlook the impact of demographic factors, such as fertility and the large, aging unaffiliated population in Asia.

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The conversation you will find below started in Mr. Aaron Miller’s fun discussion of games & therefore I felt it should be taken out, because it’s ugly stuff. The book is, I believe, a must-read for people interested in American war & modern warfare. I expect more than a few people here on Ricochet have read […]

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Is Mexico Still Catholic?

 

shutterstock_138057008Let me preface this by pointing out why non-Catholics and non-Christians might find this discussion worthwhile. First, Mexico is the United States’ largest source of immigrants (legal and illegal) and influential states like Texas are heavily colored by Mexican culture (the Texas population is already nearly half hispanic), so its culture is a significant influence on our own. Second, religion is the foundation of culture: it encapsulates many of the most basic perceptions and priorities on which political decisions are made. Thus, the ideas Mexican immigrants bring with them impacts all Americans.

Though more than 80% of Mexican citizens identify as Catholic, I’m hearing a different story from Catholic educators in Texas. American Catholics often complain generally about the state of catechesis (education about the faith), but it seems to be even worse down in Mexico, where many people are ignorant of the beliefs and traditions they claim as their own.

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Income Classes, Defined

 

I created the table below when I realized that people’s intuition about who was in the American middle class corresponded (roughly) to low $30k to around $100k in annual income and that the logarithm of those numbers happened to be about 4.5 and 5, respectively. To me, this range seems about right for married couples. I then extended the principle to create ranges for the other classes. So, lower class for married couples is between $10^4 ($10,000) and $10^4.5 ($31,623), and upper class is between $10^5 ($100,000) and $10^5.5 ($316,228).

Class single married 1 kid 2 kids 3 kids 4 kids 5 kids
bottom lower $7,071 $10,000 $12,247 $14,142 $15,811 $17,321 $18,708
lower $10,379 $14,678 $17,977 $20,758 $23,208 $25,423 $27,460
top lower $15,234 $21,544 $26,386 $30,468 $34,065 $37,316 $40,306
bottom middle $22,361 $31,623 $38,730 $44,721 $50,000 $54,772 $59,161
middle $32,821 $46,416 $56,848 $65,642 $73,390 $80,395 $86,836
top middle $48,175 $68,129 $83,441 $96,349 $107,722 $118,003 $127,458
bottom upper $70,711 $100,000 $122,474 $141,421 $158,114 $173,205 $187,083
upper $103,789 $146,780 $179,768 $207,578 $232,079 $254,230 $274,600
top upper $152,342 $215,443 $263,863 $304,683 $340,646 $373,159 $403,058
bottom wealthy $223,607 $316,228 $387,298 $447,214 $500,000 $547,723 $591,608

To find the corresponding ranges for households of other sizes, I scaled it by the square root of the number of people (multiply singles bracket by sqrt[household size]) because I’ve heard that’s a good approximation of the additional costs when you add a person.

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A penny for your thoughts on this YouTube video, by Dr. Kristie Winters. (Who may be a fellow ricochetti, as she references “Jeb!” Late in the video) More

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Ron Bailey: The Anti-Malthusian

 

As conservatives, we’re dispositionally inclined to worry about the things we might lose — or have already lost — and it sure feels like we’ve been on the losing side of things of late. And, heck, even if all goes well in 2016, it’s going to be devilishly difficult to undo the damage that’s been done. In short, there’s no shortage of legitimate reasons to feel down about some very important issues.


On the other hand, there’s also plenty of reason for optimism and hope, and Ron Bailey’s new book The End of Doom showcases some of the most promising trends of the next century. Specifically regarding population growth, access to commodities such as food and energy, medical advances, and the likelihood that we’ll be able to adapt to innovate our way out of the challenges of Climate Change.

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The Population Bomb, Revisited

 

834px-Paul_R._Ehrlich_2008Paul Ehrlich, the author of The Population Bomb, is completely unrepentant:

After the passage of 47 years, Dr. Ehrlich offers little in the way of a mea culpa. Quite the contrary. Timetables for disaster like those he once offered have no significance, he told Retro Report, because to someone in his field they mean something “very, very different” from what they do to the average person. The end is still nigh, he asserted, and he stood unflinchingly by his 1960s insistence that population control was required, preferably through voluntary methods. But if need be, he said, he would endorse “various forms of coercion” like eliminating “tax benefits for having additional children.” Allowing women to have as many babies as they wanted, he said, is akin to letting everyone “throw as much of their garbage into their neighbor’s backyard as they want.”

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Where Do Kinder Come From?

 

dinosaurAs a bit of a demographic loser – I’m not the only one in these parts – I tend to be drawn to articles that attempt to explain why humans appear to be the first species in history purposely choosing extinction. The WSJ Online had an article brushing on this topic from the perspective of an American living in Germany. However, before I could get to the author’s explanation on why our family trees are turning into inverted pyramids, I was taken aback a bit by the opening paragraph….

BERLIN—My three-year-old daughter has just returned from a five-day trip with her Kita, or preschool, to the countryside. This would be unheard of back home, where helicopter-parenting is de rigeur. But I appreciate the less-fearful attitude of German parents who shun constant supervision of their children

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Where Have All the Cowboys Gone? Or, Reasons Why I’m Still Single

 

shutterstock_86562538The other day, my sister-in-law commented on an article her friend posted on Facebook titled “Why Men Won’t Marry You.” Naturally, my ears perked up. Yes, I would like to know why I’m still single at my age. Please, Fox News article, tell me!

The arguments laid out are similar to those a member posted on the Ricochet Facebook page that caused quite the, um… stir. The author of the Fox News article makes a more compelling, less rude case for the decline in marriage rates, and breaks it down into two main reasons:

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The Henry Jackson Society, an anti-extremism pro-human rights UK think tank, has just published a curious report on the potential impact of the Muslim population in the upcoming 7 May UK elections. Despite its strong and well-researched claims, it hasn’t seemed to have picked up much traction in the media. (For some inexplicable reason the word ‘islamophobia’ […]

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How We Can Easily Feed a Planet of 11 Billion

 

shutterstock_252173746-e1423860273200How big will global population be in 2100? Some 10 or 11 billion, according to the UN. But some demographers think that estimate is way too high. Back in 2013, I blogged about a projection from Sanjeev Sanyal of Deutsche Bank. His calculations find the world’s overall fertility rate falling to the replacement rate in 2025, although global population will continue to expand for a few decades thanks in part to rising longevity: “We forecast that world population will peak around 2055 at 8.7 billion and will then decline to 8.0 billion by 2100. In other words, our forecasts suggest that world population will peak at least half a century sooner than the UN expects and that by 2100, and that level will be 2.8 billion below the UN’s prediction.”

But what if the UN is right? How can we feed all those people? It actually wouldn’t be that difficult, according to the World Bank’s Heinz-Wilhelm Strubenhoff in a piece over at Brookings. He runs through the math, but I wanted to highlight two things. First, plenty of existing farmland isn’t being used efficiently: “Farmers in the Netherlands produce 8.6 tons of cereals per hectare, Ukrainian farmers produce 4 tons per hectare, and yields in Nigeria are stagnant at 1.5 tons per hectare.” Second, we waste so much: “The average European is wasting 179 kg of food in the value chain from the farm gate to the lunch or dinner table. This is almost the annual consumption of a poor person mainly living on cereals (200 kg).”

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Children of Men

 

shutterstock_144224743Tell me if this story sounds familiar. It’s about this weird dystopia where a married couple with two young kids is looking to buy a new house and is desperate to find a neighborhood simply populated with other children. They currently reside on a suburban block that — not so many years ago — had young kids in almost every home, but now has more dogs than children on the sidewalks. It’s as if the neighbors stopped having babies for some mysterious, unknown reason. Thinking the lack of offspring may have some weird relationship to the proximity to an urban core, the couple finds itself looking at homes further and further out to find families with young kids.

As they look for a new home, the couple pays less attention to the houses themselves than the number of swing sets, sports equipment, and toys strewn in their potential neighbors’ yards. Whenever a neighbor is spotted near a potential home, he is accosted with questions of how many little ones are around. The wife of the couple even suggests following the local school bus after class lets out to see where kids live but the husband sees this as a step too far into creepy madness and a good way to get arrested. This may sound like the latest Syfy original movie premiering on Thursday after Sharknado 3, but it was how I spent my last weekend.

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