Tag: Crude Oil

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While Royal Dutch Shell’s purchase of deeply discounted Russian Ural oil this week is most likely headed to Europe, I now can eliminate one source of retail gasoline for my vehicles. Shell is the most significant controller of retail gasoline sales in the U.S. – some 13% of our nation’s 105,000 retail outlets. B.P. and […]

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Trump Triumphant

 

President Trump and America have withstood so much organized opposition, just this year to date. And yet, he and we still stand. Her is the list so far for 2020: the Chinese Communist Party plague, Russia and our good friends the Saudis crashing the global oil market, and clearly organized destruction by arson, smashing, and large scale theft. Today, President Trump stood smiling in the Rose Garden telling the good news for America, and the very bad news for the Democrat-Media complex, that jobs are coming back much faster than the “experts” expected. Small business owners had cause to smile, as well, because the president signed a one-page law improving the Paycheck Protection Program; see the bottom of this post for the full text.

A series of unfortunate events:

Remember where we have recently been. To start, the Chinese Communist Party unleashing the Wuhan virus on the globe. Health agency bureaucrats bungled and then panicked with a dangerous experimental prescription that crashed the economy. Local leaders, who American voters had long ignored as unimportant, became little dictators. They revealed the true human nature that the Framers warned and sought to guard against in the construction of our Constitution. Their contempt for religion, for small business people, for ordinary Americans, was nakedly on display.

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NYMEX Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures make headlines and along with those headlines seemingly endless speculation about what is happening, when it will stop, how to make money, etc.  Crude oil daily volatility as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) peaked at 69.12 during the first Greece crisis in […]

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In all the kerfuffle last month about Paul Ryan sacrificing Conservative’s babies on the alter of budget compromise (or something like that), you might not have heard that Ryan’s deal with the devil included lifting the 40-year ban on US crude oil exports.  Yes, US oil producers can now sell their crude on the international market.  ConocoPhillips […]

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Notes on the Decline of US Crude Oil Production

 

shutterstock_227012731My first job after the Navy was running operations, compliance, and finance for a small exploration and production company based out Farmington, New Mexico. I remain involved in the industry through non-operated working interests in Kansas, drilling consultancy in the Permian Basin, upstream operations consulting moving drilling rigs, and am the principal of Blacklion Capital Management, a Commodity Trading Advisor.

We’re in the middle of the downstroke of an oil cycle that starts with over-production and/or a decline in demand (this time, both of those, combined with a rising dollar) that causes prices to fall, exploration to dry-up, and production to slow. However, given how many steps there are between a rig and your gas tank, it takes a while for this information to process through the industry before the upstroke can happen. Rising oil prices are in our future, though exactly when is not certain.

North American Crude Oil Market

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When I wandered back in from the cold yesterday the first post I read and commented on was Tom Meyer’s oil post here.  When I am not in the field I publish two energy reports each week in partnership with Updata. I will not post them here weekly, this post is just to make folks […]

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