Tag: Bobby Jindal

Bobby Jindal, former governor of Louisiana, stops by to talk to the full crew about How Trump Wins the Populist Patriots and how that particular group has been ill served by Democrats and Republicans alike and what Republicans can do to win their support. The Jobs Report is out with “unexpectedly high” numbers: 266,000 new non-farm jobs. Remember when the reports were always “unexpectedly low” under Obama? Rob attempts to explain why Obama is responsible for Trump’s great economy even though he hedges his bets by saying presidents can’t control the economy. Then John Yoo, detainee at UC Berkeley, joins the podcast, again, to talk impeachment. John has the most beautiful suggestion for what Trump should do, should there be an impeachment trial in the Senate. You’ll want to hear this one because it’s a winner. Big league. And if you disagree, let us know in the comments.

Finally, congratulations to @garymcvey for winning the prestigious Lileks Post of the Week competition for his post, On Her Majesty’s Secret Service: This Never Happened to the Other Fellow. We only hand out 52 of these per year, folks.

What We Know So Far about the GOP Presidential Tax Plans


Bobby JindalThe Tax Foundation analysis of Bobby Jindal’s tax plan:

  • Governor Jindal’s tax plan would substantially lower individual income taxes, eliminate the corporate income tax, and repeal a number of complex features in the current tax code.
  • Governor Jindal’s plan would cut taxes by $11.3 trillion over the next decade on a static basis. However, the plan would end up reducing tax revenues by $9 trillion over the next decade when accounting for economic growth from increases in the supply of labor and capital.

So let’s summarize the four plans examined by the Tax Foundation model:

  • The Jeb Bush plan would lose $1.6 trillion over a decade (with economic feedback),  lead to a 10% higher GDP over the long-term, and boost income in the bottom fifth by 10%, the middle fifth by 13%,the top fifth by 10%, and the top one percent by 16%.
  • The Marco Rubio plan tax plan would lose $1.7 trillion over a decade (with economic feedback), lead to a 15% higher GDP over the long run, and boost income in the the bottom fifth by 40%, the middle fifth by 16%,the top fifth by 18%, and the top one percent by 28%.
  • The Donald Trump plan would lose $10 trillion over a decade (with economic feedback), lead to an 11% higher GDP over the long term, and boost income in the the bottom fifth by 11%, the middle fifth by 19%,the top fifth by 21%, and the top one percent by 27%.
  • The Rand Paul plan would lose $1 trillion over a decade (with economic feedback, lead to a 9% higher GDP over the long term, and boost average incomes by 16%.
  • The Jindal plan would lose $10 trillion over a decade with economic feedback, lead to a 14% higher GDP over the long run, would boost income in the the bottom fifth by 8%, the middle fifth by 15%,the top fifth by 22%, and the top one percent by 26%.

One important caveat (other than the vagaries of dynamic scoring) is that the TF model does not factor the “fiscal costs of higher interest payments, as well as the macroeconomic effects of the spending reductions needed to bring the budget into balance.” Let me also add that one other thing the TF model shows is that personal income tax cuts tend to have the biggest revenue loss and the least GDP bang for the trillion bucks.

What Happened to Jindal?


In this kind of campaign, it’s little surprise that Gov. Bobby Jindal is not playing well nationally. I further understand that his in-state approval ratings has dropped; that can happen in politics when you try to jump from one job to another. But I’ve seen nothing in the national media to put any context to this poll that puts Jindal in 8th place (with a scant 3 percent of the vote), behind Carson (23 percent), Trump (19 perfect), Bush (10 percent), Rubio (9 percent), Fiorina (7 percent), Cruz (6 percent), and Huckabee (4 percent) in Louisiana.

The State of the Race


Debate2This won’t be another debate recap post. An army of pundits (Please note: Worst. Army. Ever.) has already dissected last night’s proceedings and the emerging consensus seems about right to me: Carly Fiorina dominated, Marco Rubio and Chris Christie both had some pretty good moments, and Donald Trump’s pilot light kept shutting off. Everyone else was basically treading water. In the undercard debate, Bobby Jindal and Lindsey Graham both looked serviceable, but c’mon — it’s not that big of a deal to win the NIT.

So let’s play the story forward: after last night, what dynamics play out over the six weeks until the next GOP debate takes place in Boulder, Colorado? (Seriously, RNC? Boulder? Was George Soros’ penthouse booked that night?) Here are some of the trends I’ll be watching for:

Carly in the Crosshairs

Shakeup in the Ricochet Primary


The results of Ricochet’s August GOP primary poll are in! [Editor’s Note: Not a Ricochet member? That’s easily fixed.] As you will notice, Governor Scott Walker’s commanding lead over the field has completely vanished and he is now tied with Carly Fiorina as the top pick. Below, is the first choice among Ricochet members:

1st choice

Q: Who is your first choice for the GOP Nominee?

Dear Republican Candidates: Audentes Fortuna Adiuvat


gladiator-are-you-not-entertainedWith the notable exception of Carly Fiorina, all of the non-Trump candidates have been — how to put this politely? — soporific this past month. Doubtless, many of them have been simply waiting for the Trump thing to burn itself out, and have busied themselves with fundraising, flesh-pressing, policy paper issuing, and hoping that something about an email server will wake Americans up from a quarter century of toleration for the the Clintons’ lawlessness. But — however smart that strategy might have seemed a few weeks ago — it isn’t working. Trump is bigger than ever, and no one is paying attention to any of you, largely because you’ve done so little that’s attention-worthy.

As a conservative, I like my politics boring: The less that’s going on in publicly-owned mansions and domed capitols, the more space there is for important things to happen in business, religion, science, and civil society in general. I don’t — or at least shouldn’t — want politics to be any more entertaining than necessary, but this has been too little of a bad thing. We’ve an important election coming up, with a surplus of important issues and interesting candidates with some very different takes on them. And what are they doing? Trying to lay low and wait for things to blow over. On this point if no other, the Trumpsters have my full sympathy.

So here’s my general suggestion: The Republican candidates — all of them, including Trump — need to find some way to constructively tap into the frustration so many people are feeling and turn it into something constructive. Get some attention. Have some fun. Mix it up. Go rogue. Give people reason to think there’s cause for excitement on our side.

How to Use the Media Against the Left


imageLast week, a state-wide daily reported that its Republican governor — who’s running for president — terminated his state’s Medicare provider agreement with Planned Parenthood. Did you hear about it? Maybe you did. I didn’t. That was a week ago. Where’s the outrage in the national media?

When the media refuses to report on a story such as the Center for Medical Progress undercover videos, the blackout works both ways. Normally, the national media would tar and feather a Republican for doing much of anything. But if they report on this particular Republican action, they would draw attention to the videos.

Therefore, we arrive at Probable Cause’s Rule for Radicals #1:

Review: Remembering Who We Are: A Treasury of Conservative Commencement Addresses


rem-who-we-areAccording to US Federal Election Commission data, 96 percent of Ivy League faculty and administrators that gave money to a presidential candidate in 2012 donated to President Obama. The left-leaning nature of American academia is well-known, but rarely raised in polite company. Speaking at Harvard’s 363rd commencement last year, however, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg did just that. Citing the Election Commission’s figure, he uncomfortably tempered Harvard’s next generation of leaders with a message of tolerance over uniformity. “There was more disagreement than that among the members of the old Soviet Politburo,” he said, adding the obvious sleight that “a university cannot be great if its faculty is politically homogenous.”

In order to weather its current economic and political challenges, America needs not only a more balanced exchange of ideas, but to reconnect with tried and tested principles. Thus, the purpose of Zev Chafet’s Remembering Who We Are, a diverse collection of college commencement addresses, “is not to develop a right-wing orthodoxy, but precisely to show the intellectual and cultural nuance on that side of the spectrum.”

From neurosurgeon Ben Carson, to playwright David Mamet and others, the speeches thread messages of individual liberty, responsibility, free enterprise, and the rule of law with personal experience and advice to the next generation.

The First GOP Debate: One Thought


The last time around — in 2011 and 2012 — I followed developments minutely, profiling most of the candidates and hoping against hope that someone would emerge on the Republican side who was more impressive than the godfather of Obamacare. But it did not happen. In the world of the blind, the one-eyed man is king, and Mitt Romney was the one-eyed man. The Republican bench was bare. We had has-beens (Gingrich, Santorum) and never-could-have-beens … and so, late in the game, I reluctantly, then a bit too enthusiastically, embraced Romney.

This time, the Republican Party has such a plethora of talent that there are three serious possibilities who did not make the cut for the late-evening debate. Rick Perry, Bobby Jindal, and Carly Fiorina are all superior to the best of the candidates that we had last time.

Who Won the First GOP Debate?


debatetoppernewtop33660_20150806_185747The first GOP debate just wrapped up — not the one with Jeb! and The Donald, but the B-team. These are the seven candidates who didn’t have enough juice in the polls to make the main debate coming at 9 p.m. ET. All of them entered this JV debate hoping to make enough of an impact to enter the top tier the next time around. I wish Fox News had set it up so the winner of this contest immediately reported to the prime time debate, but alas, this is politics, not “Top Chef.”

It is a bit of a misnomer for the RNC to call these proceedings a “debate.” None of the candidates interacted, but rather held a low-energy Q-and-A with two Fox reporters. Questions were asked; each candidate had 60 seconds to respond. So how did they do? Here’s how I rank the performances:

1. Carly Fiorina

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If cutting off funding won’t work, then try a more direct approach: Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, a 2016 GOP presidential candidate, is calling on mayors of sanctuary cities to be arrested as accomplices to the crimes illegal aliens receiving special treatment in their cities commit. Preview Open

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GOP Bracketology — July Version


Tournament-BracketNow that Scott Walker’s in the race, with John Kasich on tap for next week, the GOP’s 2016 field soon will total 16 presidential candidates. We can rank them, 1-16. Or go by tiers. Or pick names out of a hat. My choice: divide the field into four brackets, four candidates apiece, which I’ve done in this column over at Forbes.com.

Bracket One — The Non-Conformists

1. Donald Trump

Update On The Ricochet GOP Primary — June Results


Fresh out of the printer are the latest polling numbers from the Data Division at Ricochet (I just made that up. There’s no office. It’s just a couple of guys.) While new candidates continue to enter the race, Ricochet members are largely adhering to their initial preferences among the candidates.

Scott Walker remains the clear favorite for Ricochet members, with Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz holding on just behind. I have also included Rick Perry below, as he has emerged with enough support to warrant a highlight. In past months, we’ve also seen other candidates — such as Carly Fiorina and Bobby Jindal — enjoy a bump.

Should Jindal Be Kicking Himself Over 2012?


Gov._Bobby_Jindal_in_Oklahoma_2015Those who follow my posting obsessively (i.e., weirdos) know that Gov. Bobby Jindal has been my favorite presidential hopeful since 2009. Sadly, my ardor is waning. The complete lack of people who agree with me makes inclined to give up and move on.

That’s too bad. Bobby Jindal has a great story to tell and is a strong conservative with wide experience. His problem is timing: in 2016 he’s running against the strongest GOP field ever. What if he had pulled an Obama and run in 2012 when he was “too young”? Would it have worked?

I suspect he would have won the nomination. Remember how desperate we were to find an alternative to Romney? I voted for Santorum in the Michigan primary — a man I didn’t particularly like —  just to protest the Romney juggernaut. The polls gave each challenger a bump in turn; heck, we even gave Herman Cain a look. Herman Cain! Bobby Jindal would have swept those jokers aside, swept up the anti-Romney vote, and brought in extra voters on his own. It would have been a cakewalk.

GOP Presidential Candidates Quiz


shutterstock_106049342As we approach the end of the week, it’s a good time to ask which of these stories from the past several days means the most to the Republican presidential field. These would be both short-term and long-term considerations. In the short term: the August 6 Fox News candidates’ debate in Cleveland. In the long term: strategies for coming back to Cleveland next summer and accepting the party’s nomination.

1) Bush MoneyThe Washington Post reported on Tuesday that Jeb Bush’s Right To Rise super PAC is unlikely to reach its $100 million target by the month’s end. Team Bush could still reach that figure, but to do so might require some accounting gimmicks such as factoring in the accumulated sums of Right To Rise, a separate Bush leadership PAC, plus whatever money’s in the actual campaign that becomes formal next week. Then again, maybe it’s an elaborate head-fake and Bush will beat the street estimates. Regardless, word of a potential financial underperformance spread like crazy over the Internet. Why such interest? Because money is at the heart of the Bush campaign — its strategy, its media validation. So, if true, is this a big deal, little deal, or no deal at all?

2) Rubio Rubbish.On Monday, The New York Times ran this headline: “Marco Rubio’s Career Bedeviled By Financial Struggles.” It chronicled how the Florida senator caught a break by getting an $800,000 advance to write a book about growing up as an immigrants’ son. It claimed that Rubio squandered $80,000 on a “luxury speedboat”. It turns out the S.S. Rubio is a modest offshore fishing boat — in the manufacturer’s words: a craft meant for “safety-minded family boaters and avid anglers”.

The Failed Presidential Candidate Employment Agency


shutterstock_245961226June having dawned, we’re beginning to get a decent sense of what the (enormous) GOP presidential field is going to look like. By my tally, we’re probably going to end up with approximately 15 relatively prominent candidates. That’s four sitting governors — Christie, Kasich, Jindal, and Walker; four former governors — Bush, Huckabee, Pataki, and Perry; four sitting senators — Cruz, Graham, Paul, and Rubio; Santorum, the lone former senator; and the two who’ve never held elected office, Carson and Fiorina. I know everyone’s focused on how you get all these people onto one stage, but I’ve been thinking about another dynamic: there are 14 people in that group who aren’t going to be the Republican nominee. What do they do next? Here are my thoughts for each of these candidates should they fail to win the big prize. Add yours in the comments.

Bush — Make gobs of money? True, there’ll be an open Senate seat in Florida next year with Rubio choosing not to run again, but most former executives don’t relish time in the legislative branch — and it’s not clear how much cachet Bush still has in the state given that he’ll have been out of office for a decade at that point (especially with Florida’s high population turnover). Given his record as governor, Bush probably would’ve been at the top of any Republican president’s list for Secretary of Education — but, given how closely identified with Common Core he’s become, I doubt that’s necessarily true anymore.

Carson — Even in these early days, it’s become clear that Ben Carson probably should not be in this race. His penchant for gaffes and his ability to get tripped up by even rudimentary policy questions likely augurs a campaign that will end in embarrassment — which is a real shame, because Carson is immensely accomplished and has lived a great American life…just not one that needs to culminate in a presidential bid. Given his rise from childhood poverty in Detroit to the commanding heights of the medical field, he provides an incredible example for young African-American men throughout the country. If he placed his focus there — perhaps starting an organization that was a more conservative equivalent of Barack Obama’s My Brother’s Keeper program — he could do an immense amount of good.

Sorting the Republicans’ 2016 Kingdom


29pataki-sub-2-superjumboThe GOP presidential field continues to swell like Elvis’ waistline in the 1970s. Former New York Governor George Pataki jumped into the fray on Thursday, a day after former Pennsylvania Senator and 2012 contender Rick Santorum made his intentions known.

Does either candidate stand a chance of making it all the way to the nomination?

Don’t bet on it. Pataki is the longest of long shots – he cut crime rates and taxes during three terms as head of the Empire State, but he’s also a Roosevelt Republican and social liberal. Santorum was the surprise winner in Iowa the last time caucus-goers voted. But this time around, it’s a far more crowded field.

2015 Gubernatorial Races and the Republican “Red Wall”


BryantBefore we get to 2016, there’s some housekeeping to attend to. Specifically, three gubernatorial contests on tap for later this year. The states in play: Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Will they offer any windows into the health of the two parties? Let’s take a quick look at each one.

1) Kentucky. The state synonymous with horse racing has the inside track on the  nastiest race so far. A college girlfriend says one-time GOP frontrunner and state Agriculture Commissioner James Comer abused her. That, in turn, raised questions as to fellow Republican Hal Heiner’s campaign tactics. How ugly has the GOP fight become? At one point, Comer called Heiner “the Christian Laettner of Kentucky politics.” Why that hurts so badly in Wildcat Nation: