Tag: 2018 Midterm Elections

House Democrats: *Some* Children’s Lives Matter

 

Well, House Democrats certainly did not waste any time. Their just-for-show funding bill not only rejects border security funding but also packs in all their abortion absolutist wishes. President Trump cannot trade away pro-life policies for some wall funding, so the House bill to end the government shutdown has been strictly leftist loyalty signaling. Can Democrats in leadership yield on these positions, or are they clinging to the backs of hungry young leftist tigers, who might shred their leaders’ careers in an instant?

The spending bill that Democrats introduced Wednesday includes language specifying that foreign non-governmental organizations that perform abortions consistent with the laws in their country are not ineligible for U.S. family planning funds.

Trump, like all his Republican predecessors since former President Ronald Reagan, cut off family planning funds to organizations that promote abortions for family planning.

Trump’s Tax Returns, or What Does Nancy Pelosi Have to Hide?

 

Watching the election coverage last night it had barely become clear that the Democrats were going to take the House before all the talk (on the “mainstream” channels I was surfing) turned to salivating over the ability of House committees to use the subpoena power to get Trump’s tax returns. It was almost indecent. The masks slipped pretty fast. They weren’t attached very well to begin with.

But I’m not 100 percent sure how these tax return subpoenas are going to shake out. I’m familiar with the subpoena power in private litigation. As a lawyer for several decades, I’ve issued plenty of subpoenas. But subpoenas aren’t magic. You don’t necessarily get what you want. They’re just formal requests that obligate the recipient to either a) comply, b) negotiate some acceptable alternative, or c) let a court decide whether compliance is required (a recipient can move to quash or an issuer can move to compel enforcement). In practice, subpoenas are rarely complied with as issued.

2018 Midterm House Predictions

 

Here’s a quick summary of how I see things going down:

  • You start out with 240 GOP seats (235 incumbent and 5 vacancies) vs. 193 DEM seats (with 2 vacancies)
  • There are about 10 net seats that look likely to flip DEM at the outset, so: 230 vs. 205. (DEMS will take 12 red districts at the outset, GOP will take 2 blue, so a net of 10 for the DEMS).
  • DEMS need ~12 to 15 more seats to flip the house after that (25 net new seats altogether)
  • There are approximately 35 seats in play… tossups.
  • 12 of those look to be good for the GOP.
  • Another 12 have favorable GOP trends or models.
  • 12 look to be leaning to the DEMS.

Bottom line: it’s going to be very tight and history tells us the DEMS have an advantage but if the turnout model is a 2014 turnout model then the GOP will retain by 10 seats.

Trump: “We Will Seek [the] Destruction [of Those Who Would Destroy the Jews]”

 

President Trump did, indeed, double down on hating back the Jew-hating mass-murderer. I’ve gone on C-SPAN and created the relevant clip from the Illinois MAGA Event: President Trump Calls for “Destruction” of Anti-Semites, Death Penalty for “crimes like these.”

The killer was depraved on account of he’s depraved, to borrow from West Side Story.He is, on available evidence, no John Hinkley, acting on the delusion that a spectacular act of violence would endear him to a movie star. He was not bowling alone, he was marinating in an ancient hate, channeling and reinforcing his evil through an online forum, instead of ranting in a bar, or passing out pamphlets.

Rabbi Benjamin Sendrow got it right:

Ballots, Not Bombs

 

We are still a nation of laws. Our constitution—and the renewed, reasonable belief that elections matter for all of us—ensures that our political differences are largely managed through peaceful means. This year is no different.

In the past month, we have seen prominent Republicans terrorized with mailed bio-weapons, some of which turned out to be real, and some fake. We have seen prominent Democrats terrorized with mailed bombs, some of which (so far) turned out to be fake. Fake or real, the terrorist effect is the same.

The same law enforcement agencies, from local to national, must act will equal diligence, without respect to party or politics. Indeed, they were just as swift in arresting (at least one of) the bioweapon terrorist(s) who mailed ricin threats to Republicans, as they were in catching the mail-bomber who targeted Democrats. While the media has clearly chosen sides and treats threats differently depending on party (as Congressman Steve Scalise has noted), the American people see clearly.

Predicting Elections Using A.I. and Machine Learning

 

Here’s a set of stats from the 2016 election you may not know:

  • Trump received 2 million more votes than Governor Romney.
  • Hillary Clinton received 62K fewer votes than President Obama.

Obviously, a shift happened over four years which favored Donald Trump. Which demographic factors motivated that shift? More importantly, is there something we can project for the 2018 and 2020 elections?

Member Post

 

The Gosnell movie is being smothered, with the intention of driving it off the movie screens. After the first week of release, on 700 screens, the silence is stunning. The media is treating the movie just like they treated the trial. They are pretending it isn’t happening.  It took a social media storm, including this photograph […]

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Member Post

 

In the afterglow of the Kavanaugh confirmation, with a month to go until midterm Senate elections that are stacked in Republicans’ favor, surely Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell must be pulling out all the stops to maximize the size of his caucus. After all, he must be frustrated with the inability to fulfill long term […]

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Election Prediction

 

Yogi Berra is alleged to have quipped “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” That warning notwithstanding, I will go out on a limb and make some predictions about the 2018 midterms.

  1. Republicans will more than hold the Senate, they will gain seats.
  2. Republicans will flip the Senate seats in Florida, Montana, Indiana, North Dakota, and Ohio.
  3. Republicans will fail to flip the West Virginia seat, mainly because Republicans are so good at leaving Senate seats on the table that they should walk away with. (I’m looking at you Todd Aiken, Sharon Angle, Roy Moore, etc.)
  4. Republicans will pull out a narrow surprise victory and flip one of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Michigan, or Minnesota.
  5. Democrats will flip Nevada. Sorry, Dean Heller, you are probably toast.
  6. This election will not be a Blue Wave. (For the purposes of this conversation, let’s define “wave election” as not only change in partisan leadership of the House, but decisively so as in 1994, 2006, and 2010.)
  7. Against almost all prognostications, Republicans will hold the House.

Factors driving election results will include #resistance fatigue, #deepstate fatigue, disgust over the Democrats’ juvenile circus antics during the Kavanaugh hearings, and their transparently disingenuous handling of the eleventh-hour vague accusation that Kavanaugh committed an attempted rape 36 years ago. Democrats have overplayed their hand at virtually every turn, and as a result, they will suffer at the ballot box. Whatever their misgivings about President Trump and the Republican Congress, voters will be reticent to hand the levers of power over to the circus masters of the left.

Senator Collins: A True Stateswoman in the Kavanaugh Brawl

 

Senator Susan Collins is my hero for the day. I am always wary of Senators Murkowski (R-AK) and Collins (R-ME) when any check on abortion-on-demand is at issue. However, Senator Collins has been a true stateswoman in the Kavanaugh hearings. She has sent a letter to Chairman Grassley, published on her Senate webpage, which will make the absolute best out of the mess intentionally created by Senator Feinstein.

Senator Collins proposed the Judiciary Committee hearing open with the attorneys for the accuser and the accused questioning the two of them. This would let the strongest questions be asked before Senators start grandstanding or pulling punches. Senator Grassley knows he has a problem: he has no female Senator on his side of the room, so the optics will be bad if they don’t roll over. The two attorneys are both women.

Steven Hayward of Power Line believes that Senator Collins’ recommendation, if wisely adopted, will be decisive in this political contest:

#HimToo? Call Wavering Senators’ Bluff

 

If Sen. Flake, who the careful John Hinderaker now calls “traitor,” truly believes Judge Kavanaugh’s 11th -hour Democrat accuser, he will immediately call for the judge’s impeachment. If Flake and the abortion-on-demand supporters, Senators Collins and Murkowski, believe a word of the accusation against Judge Kavanaugh, if they even really believe the allegation is serious, then they will also immediately hold a press conference demanding the impeachment of Justice Clarence Thomas. They will do no such thing because they believe none of this.

As John Hinderaker explains:

“Traitor” is normally considered a harsh word, but it is the only printable thing I have called “Republican” Senator Jeff Flake since he announced, a few hours ago, that he is “not comfortable voting yes” on Judge Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court. His concern is the ridiculously stale allegation by Democrat professor Christine Ford that Kavanaugh groped her and tried to kiss her at a party when they were both high school students more than 30 years ago. You might reasonably think this is a joke. Unfortunately not.

Arizona: Elections Keep Getting Tougher

 

Looking at Arizona’s 2018 primary election results, it is clear that the races for Governor and US Senate will be competitive. A not-so-deep dive into election data since 1998, focused on Senate and Presidential races, was not at all reassuring. Rather, it revealed a disturbing trend for Senate races, painting a picture that should rouse Republicans and MAGA voters to action.

The following table paints the picture, showing the vote differential between Republican and Democratic candidates, rounded to thousands. An “X” means there was no race for that position that year. In 2000, Senator Jon Kyl ran unopposed by any Democrat. All information is based on the Arizona Secretary of State’s General Election Information 1998-2016.

Year President Senate Seat 1 Senate Seat 2
2018 X McSally/Sinema X
2016 91 Trump X 328 McCain
2014 X X X
2012 208 Romney 68 Flake X
2010 X X 413 McCain
2008 196 McCain X X
2006 X 150 Kyl X
2004 211 Bush X 1,101 McCain
2002 X X X
2000 96 Bush 1,108 Kyl (No Dem) X
1998 X X 421 McCain

As you can see, the Senate races have gotten tighter, regardless of candidate personality. Indeed, Senator McCain’s supposed incumbency advantage was sharply declining. Likewise, Senator Kyl, when facing a Democrat, had less than half McCain’s smallest margin. Jeff Flake barely got elected, while his Democratic opponent, Dr. Richard Carmona, got about 11,000 more votes than President Obama, who was at the top of the ticket.

Republican Campaigning in the Age of Trump

 

Salena Zito’s latest column, “Trump’s not the reason the GOP sputtered in Ohio,” points to continued failure by Republican operatives to accept the message sent by the voters that they must get to the polls in November. Listen to the candidates and the independent PAC ads in your state. How are they doing? It is a mixed bag here in Arizona, so far, but both serious Republican contenders for the US Senate are proclaiming alignment with President Trump.

Salena Zito points to the importance of demonstrating awareness and concern for local issues. Waving around a few national talking points is not a recipe for success.

Member Post

 

As a brief update from the California gubernatorial race, John Cox has released a new ad to set the tone for the general election. You all know the problems we face in this state so there’s no need to rehash that. But John’s message is to be a voice for the forgotten Californians who’ve been […]

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