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Shakeup in the Ricochet Primary
The results of Ricochet’s August GOP primary poll are in! [Editor’s Note: Not a Ricochet member? That’s easily fixed.] As you will notice, Governor Scott Walker’s commanding lead over the field has completely vanished and he is now tied with Carly Fiorina as the top pick. Below, is the first choice among Ricochet members:
Q: Who is your first choice for the GOP Nominee?
The next chart shows the trend of this month’s top-four candidates over the course of the year. As you can see, Fiorina’s rise has been nearly as dramatic as Walker’s fall:
Top four candidates performance over time among the Ricochetti.Click the graph for a full-sized version.
For second choice candidate, Fiorina and Rubio are tied. Interestingly, there were more votes for other candidates, though all of them had such small numbers that I didn’t include them. This is the first time “other” received more votes than the frontrunners.
Q: Who is your second choice for GOP Nominee?
I then dug a little deeper and looked at who Walker supporters picked as their second choice. They move towards Rubio and then Cruz.
The second choice of those who selected Walker as their first choice.
I did the same for Fiorina’s supporters, who also go to Rubio’s camp as an alternative.
The second choice of those who selected Fiorina as their first choice.
This last chart shows the combined first and second choices of the top four of the candidates. Interestingly, it shows that Fiorina gets more votes than any other candidate, reinforcing the trend we saw that gave her a lift in the field.
Now that members have seen how the candidates are starting to perform — or, in some cases, underperform — it’s natural to see some movement. I find the increased support for Cruz interesting since he hasn’t been very popular at Ricochet. I’m looking forward to seeing what twists and turns the next few months hold.
Published in Politics
Personally, I’m starting to like Cruz more and more as I see these videos of College Kids trying to trap him on Climate Change or whatever. I’m reminded that he was a World Champion Debater. It’s nice to see a candidate who can make an argument and deal with tough questions. My first choice is still Walker, but Cruz is growing on me.
I’d been a Walker supporter for the past half year or so, but I’ve been deeply unimpressed lately by him and by Perry (my go-to #2). I honestly don’t have a first choice at the moment.
Somewhat on a whim, I chose Jindal (who’s earned some love) and Fiorina in this months poll.
This is a simple regression to the mean. No non-Trump GOP candidate has distinguished him/herself sufficiently to pull away from Ricochet Randomness.
“…demanding lead…” ?
Entirely my fault, not Bereket’s; Mea maxima culpa.
Fixed.
I am a big Fiorina fan. She did extremely well at the kids table during last months Republican debate. It appears that she is very ready to move the larger stage but as in all things, be careful what you ask for. If she shines, as I expect her to do, it will validate her place at the table. If she doesn’t do well, she will have to fight to regain lost ground or may lose all momentum.
The only advice that I would offer her (or any of the other candidates), you need some new material. You’ve all practically used up and worn out the talking points to date. For Carly, I would ask that you find a new way to state, “My first call as President…” or “My good friend, Bibi…” and so on…
I hope to hear something new from each of the candidates in the next round.
Much to my surprise I find my self making water cooler arguments in favor of Cruz because of his electability. Which just goes to show how topsy-turvy the race is with Trump in it.
I’ve about got their speeches memorized.
And yet the well-informed Ricochet membership who have certainly seen and heard quite a bit of Mr. Trump and who have engaged very impassioned Trump supporters on Ricochet, still are not buying what Trump is selling and would prefer instead the so-called yet-to-be-distinguished Fiorina, Rubio, Walker or Cruz. Are the vast majority of Ricochet members ill-informed? GOP establishment toadies? Certainly the results show they’re not Jeb Bush supporters. The arguments for a Trump nomination don’t appear to resonate on Ricochet. Why is that?
Thanks for doing this analysis. Very informative.
Walker’s fate is what happens when a candidate with wide but thin support is too cautious. Fortune favors the bold.
The Ricochet poll indicates to me – although it is not a surprise – that Trump is not going to be the nominee. He has fans – me included – but few real supporters among the most committed Republican voters. But he has done two extraordinary things: he has brought immigration to the forefront of the GOP debate, something that I said was essential earlier this year, and he has pretty much dispatched Jeb Bush.
The question remains: Who will put aside the cheap saber-rattling which few voters really want to hear and the platitudinous blather about corporate tax cuts, and instead take up the Americanism that Trump has made his signature appeal?
For instance, who will say, “Today, America needs fewer immigrants.”
Thanks very much, Bereket. We all really appreciate this work. Would you consider doing the hard work to do a preferential ballot sometime soon?
It works like this:
The tally is done in iterations with the bottom person in the first choice being dropped and the second choice distributed through the remaining candidates. Then continue on in this fashion until a majority is reached.
Florida presidential election 2000. Let’s say there were just three candidates, Bush, Gore and Nader. No majority so the tally is Nader goes out and the second choices of just those voters get distributed to the the remaining two. Probably Gore would have won.
Here’s the thing: people say that if Nader hadn’t run then those people might not have voted anyway. But, with a preferential ballot Nader’s candidacy could get them motivated to come to the polls and then their vote is not thrown away. We get their opinion from them rather than throwing it away.
This is the best way to really winnow out accurate Ricochetti opinions.
There are actually a gazillion different voting schemes, but probably most are more complicated than your idea.
PS. Thanks, Mr. Kelile for working so hard to bring this to us.
I am amazed at this question still persisting. I am an impassioned supporter of Trump’s turning the apple cart on its head but would not vote for him. He’s last on my list but one — Jeb’s at the bottom. People here have tried to tell you and others what is going on in our heads and how thrilled we are to see Trump voice our opinions of the GOP, America and the other candidates (“Jeb is very low energy” — you gotta love that.)
Why is this so hard to understand? Do you understand it and refuse to represent our positions fairly (see bolded text above) or are you missing something? What can I say that will get you and Jonah Goldberg and so many others to correctly describe the clear reasons for our defense of the Trump phenomenon?
I’m a big fan of runoff elections because they force a majority decision out of the electorate. The preferential ballot does an Instant Runoff — no need to come back to the polls and bother us. We get it over quickly and we get a real majority out of it.
BTW, I would still want a two part election with primaries and a general.
I feel the same way. Plus I follow her (and a few others) on social media, so I get a triple-dose of it. I just want to hear some fresh ideas. Let’s hope she (and the others) are saving them for the debates or a particular sound-bite.
Because we’ve seen Trump and his…type before. Ross Perot, Pat Buchanan, even Sarah Palin a few years back.
To answer Maximus’ question, “Yes, we ARE entertained. But hopefully there is something more coherent and profound beyond the spectacle of hacking away at other Republican candidates? Say, something akin to a credible domestic and foreign policy? Careful, that just might be a gotcha question.”
I can’t name a Ricochet member who has not conceded why Mr. Trump has risen to prominence because he has a blunt way of countering political correctness and points out the weakness of the Republican leadership. So, harping on why other Ricochet members just don’t seem to get why Trump is popular or why his supporters are so gosh darned angry is really a bit of tone deafness on the part of Trump supporters not tone deafness from those who would oppose his nomination.
Perhaps I need to emphasize my point yet again – After all the myriad arguments for a Trump nomination why is the Ricochet membership not shifting its support to Trump? Is it because the vast majority of Ricochet members just don’t get what Trump is all about?
Or is it, in fact, just the opposite. That they understand the man’s popularity but based on many of his non-conservative positions, pronouncements (his admiration for socialized medicine, the “good” work that Planned Parenthood does for women) or blurted tweets, his narcissism, his shallow understanding of economics and foreign policy that they perhaps understand the man much better than his most adamant supporters and realize what an unmitigated disaster he would be for the country?
Nice piece of work Bereket. With Carly in the lead, it’s pretty clear the Ricochetti should be running the country. Yep, I know, tipped my hand.
Fascinating that the candidates tending to get most of the mainstream media attention don’t hit the radar here.
I really appreciate these poll results because they help me focus on the “top four” — who they are and how I might like to place them.
Imo, Fiorina and Rubio are running for the VP slot. That makes it much easier for me to choose — Fiorina. She’s awesome in interviews and on stage — quick, focused, authentic with a touch of ruthlessness. I like that a lot, and I think we need a woman.
That leaves Cruz and Walker for the top spot. This is a much more difficult choice. I think I’ll just stay tuned. However, I’d note that if Fiorina is veep, it might make sense to have Cruz at the top of the ticket. Just noodling here … I like them both.
I gave you an answer for this. We don’t poll as being for him. When polled we DO NOT tell Bereket (or other polls) that Trump is our guy.
I’m for Cruz first, then Walker, then Rubio, then Jindal, then Carly, then Perry, then
all
the
way
down
to Jeb at the bottom.
Discussing possible future leaders of our country without acknowledging Trump’s positive influence on the national conversation simply means that our community may be a bit blinkered. I’m 100% for Cruz, especially after reading his book and realizing he is not disagreeing with the Trumpeter on any major policy position. I know, I’m a lonely voice in claiming Trump is a real person.
Fiorina has said many times she isn’t running for VP, so now what? We need a strong top guy, and a VP we wouldn’t cringe at becoming President, so both need to be strong. Walker has lost some appeal for me; I think he’s listening to the ‘consultants’ too much? What do they care? They’ll get paid no matter who wins.
I sure hope Trump doesn’t read this. Can you image what he’d say about us? Did you hear him this morning calling Hewitt names?
Great question!
He doesn’t resonate because he is not a politician or a member of the nomenclatura. He is plain-spoken. He’s not “conservative”, in the sense of Cruz. (BTW, I’m losing faith in that label. I’d like to invent a new one for those who have principles and follow them! And that would never include progressives, as they are not guided by natural or moral principles, but by stale ideology.)
He consorted with Democrats in the past? What successful big businessman hasn’t, or hasn’t had to? That’s why they often contribute to both parties.
I am not at all shocked that Trump doesn’t register on a Ricochet poll.
Ricochet is so far and away above the rest of the internet fray that we are largely unrecognizable to the rest of cyber space.
We make emotional and style arguments, but for the most part Ricochet tends to be a data/fact driven culture. We like to debate specific policy positions and topics.
Until his immigration plan Trump wasn’t much on specifics. Beyond immigration he hasn’t offered a lot of specifics so we are left to debate the cult of personality around him.
Don’t forget, it’s important to lie to pollsters.
How great would it be for the Donald to pick a public fight with Ricochet? Civil vs. Uncivil, for the soul of center right thought.
Where’s the love for Ben Carson? As CNN has recently noted the right behind Trump in the polls.
“But Carson, a neurosurgeon, posted the biggest gain in support since August, jumping 13 points to second place. He is holding down 18% support now among Republicans. That continues a trend of recent polls that show him moving up the list.
It’s also Carson’s highest recorded number in a national poll, topping a 13% mark in a Fox news poll this spring.
Trump’s lead also evaporates when the field is narrowed to just him and Carson. Asked about a head-to-head match-up between those two, Republican voters picked Carson over Trump, 55% to 36%.”
Ben Carson is simultaneously the anti-Trump and the Trump light candidate. He is anti-Trump because of his deep religion, his manner of quietly speaking and his more cerebral nature. He is Trump light because he is politically incorrect, plainspoken and perhaps most importantly, he is not a *&%@#$ polician!
It seems plausible to me that Dr. Carson can strike a populist and patriotic tone while avoiding all the racial stuff that Trump seems to attract and Obama relishes.