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Rubio Leads the Ricochet Caucus, Trump Gaining
It’s that time again for your monthly update. Rubio continues to lead the pack with a sizable margin with Cruz right behind him. In 3rd and 4th place are Fiorina and Trump(!), more on that later.
For the 2nd choice, the Ricochet vote is roughly an even split between Rubio, Cruz, and Fiorina. Interestingly, Christie emerges from statistical insignificance.
For Rubio supporters, their 2nd choice mostly goes to Cruz and Fiorina.
For Cruz supporters, their 2nd choice goes to Rubio and Fiorina.
It seems Ricochet members have mostly settled on Rubio or Cruz. Among those who supported Trump, their second choice goes to Cruz, which makes sense given the dynamics of the race.
I plotted the vote shares of these four candidates and you can see Trump’s rise. He’s still far back in the pack but last month Ricochet members saw something in this guy that made them want to select his box.
Lastly, I want to show a chart comparing Ricochet with the RCP average. This graphic gives a nice visual illustration of where Ricochet members diverge from the national primary GOP electorate.
The sample size was 357, which yields a sampling error of less than +/-5.2%.
Published in General
I didn’t see where we got to vote again. It discourages me that so many are willing to support Rubio the opportunistic liar.
Voted Rubio/Cruz. Concerns about both of them, no better realistic options as yet.
All last week the poll was in the sidebar ——–>
Some care about a 98% American Conservative Union rating, tea party origins, and at least the possibility of beating Clinton. Hurling invectives isn’t our thing either.
Fiorina is an interesting outlier. The Trump and Carson divergences from the GOP electorate were predictable but she seems to hold some type of charm for Ricochet that seems squandered on the rest of the GOP, I wonder what accounts for that.
Rubio doesn’t have Tea Party origins. The Tea Party got behind Rubio in his challenge to Charlie Crist and was a factor Rubio’s senate campaign victory. After Rubio won the election he disavowed any relationship with the Tea Party.
We’ll have to disagree about what “origins” means. I’m also remembering that Tea Party Express wanted Rubio over Ryan for VP.
Rubio publicly disavowed any association with the Tea Party immediately after he won the Florida election for the U.S. senate. Rubio said in an interview he wasn’t associated with the Tea Party. If Rubio wasn’t associated with the Tea Party, how could he have a Tea Party origin?
@Max Ledoux- “All last week the poll was in the sidebar ——–>”
I assumed the sidebar poll was still the original one. It did not, AFAIK, indicate it was a second poll.
I’d just be repeating my previous answer, and I’m not all that wedded to a dispute over what “origins” means. Are you really going to make me go looking for endorsements of Rubio by various tea party organizations before or after his first candidacy? Rubio’s words as to his associations somewhat beg the question as to how those associations viewed him when it mattered.
Can we get the raw numbers?
Specifically, how many people voted for George Pataki?
Me too
The Tea Party supported Rubio in his campaign for the U.S. Senate in Florida. And Rubio thanked the Tea Party by publicly disavowing any association with the Tea Party -after winning the election.
I like to call a spade a spade.
A link would have helped, but we’ll agree to disagree as to what “origins” means.
After Rubio’s Gang of Eight problems, he took a meeting with activists concerned about his stance. A quote:
“It’s not like he’s speaking to a foreign audience. He’s speaking to his family,” said Niger Innis, a chief strategist for the TeaParty.net, which is helping plan the meeting.
I miss me some Carson. I was originally a big fan and then I accepted that he wasn’t quite up for the gig but it stings to see Trump going up without Carson.
Can you explain, though? Who would you prefer over Rubio, and why? Leaving out insult… just good reasons why, keeping in mind that I don’t think he’s a liar, so it has to be more than an assertion.
He represented himself as strongly anti-amnesty and pro-enforcement when running for the senate. Then, he didn’t just vote for the ‘gang of eight’ legislation, he took a leadership role with that bill. In that bill, the “penalties” were so light as to be of no deterrent value. And the ‘enforcement’ was written in such a way that allowed for the administrator to easily cast it aside. Deliberate Misrepresentation = Lie in my view.
Rubio in 2010:
Who do I like better? That’s really a tough question. I’m really discouraged. I’m so tired of the current republican party. But I’m sure that I don’t want to reward anyone for misrepresentation. I cannot see myself voting Rubio anymore than I see a vote for Trump.
Very interesting, Bereket. Thanks for doing this.
My vote: Cruz, Christie. (Last few times: Cruz, Fiorina.) I’m starting to remember what I first liked about Christie a few years ago. I never got all that upset about his Obama/Hurricane Sandy photos but I did become worried he wasn’t really willing to do the hard work against immigration. But, terrorism? Yes, he’s got grit for that. I agree with the Trump supporters that immigration is at the top of the list and I put it next to terrorism. So, let’s see if he can move my way and I can then support him.
It looks like Rubio is either supported by 1) the GOP intellectuals and elites who aren’t behind Jeb! (which is worrying for me on its own) or 2) he really is the one who is the most electable in the general, combined with someone we would love to have representing us in terms of the aesthetics or the raw appeal. I just find he isn’t completely convincing as someone who won’t disappoint in the end. I have the feeling that I have seen this movie before.
Other than that? Rubio is my number 4 — I do like him and want to trust him. But, he’s after Fiorina, my number 3. I don’t trust the party elite to advise me anymore. They are losers and, when elected, won’t fight.
I think these are all good questions for Rubio. Certainly, he should want to give answers to those questions as well… but I don’t think it was deliberate misrepresentation. I say that thinking of the vast difference between legislating and campaigning. Rubio didn’t support blanket amnesty. Maybe the gang-of-8 thing was something he saw as a legitimate compromise – and the fact that he’s repudiated it shows that he at least learned something from the lesson. Maybe he’ll be less likely to trust liberal promises than he was to begin with.
But what we have is a good conservative candidate with a real chance of beating Hillary. Trump is a joke. Cruz is great, but extremely polarizing and likely not going to be as strong against Hillary. Fiorina and Carson are tomorrow’s conservatives, and I’m looking forward to seeing what they do. But right now I think we can make real headway with someone like Rubio, especially if that’s not our only focus. Obama made the presidency into a one-man-show, but Republicans need to scale that back. If Rubio wins, we’ll still have guys like Cruz in the senate, and the conservative strategy has generally been to govern with all parts, not just through executive order. Having our guy in the whitehouse is the first step, and it is the most important first step – but it isn’t everything, so we shouldn’t demand a candidate who is everything. We should push for the presidency and as many congressmen as we can possibly get – that really will be the only way to accomplish anything on obamacare, immigration, or foreign policy.
The last thing we want is someone who promises to be just as lawless as Obama – and I think Rubio would bring some sense back to this country, which is exactly what we need.
I actually just stumbled on this now.
From the sound of it, it seemed like he was only for enforcement because of the need to get republicans on board. The only thing he has changed is the order in which his plan works.
I don’t personally think he can beat Hillary. Let’s face it, Ricochet is a very peculiar self-selected group that seems prefers a certain kind of candidate, namely, the debate club president. I honestly think Trump has a really solid shot at the white house just because the way he works the media but none of us really knows. I find the certainty that Rubio will win the white house kind of amusing.
I have some charts of my own just based on the published 1st and 2nd rankings. I didn’t realize that the relationship between 1st and second had been preserved. I thought we couldn’t do that here.
I would like to see the original data as well.
Bereket, thanks very much for taking the time tor provide the detail on the Ricochet Poll. I appreciate it.
Ryan, I like Rubio and if he is nominated, will support him enthusiastically. I put his involvement with the Gang of Eight down to ambitious rookie enthusiasm. Any Republican who lines up with Chuck Schumer and thinks they will come out on top is naïve or delusional. I think Rubio was just naïve and has learned his lesson. Also, I don’t understand why people seem to think that if Rubio is elected president, his Gang of Eight stance on “amnesty” will prevail. The Congress will create any immigration legislation that is put forward for a President Rubio to sign. I’m a Carly-Rubio person, and the reason I have Marco in the second slot is that I don’t think he has experienced enough hard knocks from life to really solidify his judgment so that I might know what he would do in a given situation. Carly has. I feel I can predict what she would do with a high degree of confidence. I also thought the “establishment” choice in Florida in 2010 was Crist, not Rubio.
This poll makes me feel a little more upbeat today. Thanks!
Why has Carly not done better here? Why do Democrat Floridians say Rubio was corrupt? Why do we think Rubio is more electable than Carly or Cruz. Cruz was polarizing because he went after the Republican leadership and they tried to cut him up. Are we again allowing liberal media and Democrat talking heads to define our reality?
Rubio is a snake in the grass who will only sale this country out at a slower rate than Hillary, particularly regarding the importation of a 3rd world mentality. Two people in this thread provided beyond doubt that Rubio will say anything to get Conservatives falling over themselves to vote for yet another squish all the while convincing themselves that they have voted for the Vanguard of the Movement. Rubio 2016!! He’s only slightly better than Hillary!!
I’ve criticized you for rhetorical excess in the past Robert, and I’m sad to say that I have to take you to the woodshed again.
This business of Rubio being some sort of RINO Squish – It’s disjointed from reality. If you’re so far out of the mainstream that you think there isn’t a dime’s worth of difference between Hill and Marco – you might need to get your eyes checked.
Marco Rubio has a 98% lifetime rating from the ACU – the same rating as that other hateful tool of the Republican “Establishment” (a thing which, by-and-large is a figment of your imagination:) Rand Paul.
Yes, Ted Cruz can sport a squeaky clean 100% rating from the ACU. So what? What we’re talking about here is not whether or not these people are conservative – but how conservative. If Ted Cruz is extremely conservative, Marco Rubio is snapping at his heels in a state that currently has a sitting Democrat Senator.
You need perspective on this. You need to realize that Rubio, as President would likely be more conservative than even Ronald Reagan – who signed an amnesty bill! Yes, you remember that Ronald Reagan; loathsome, reptilian member of the country club set? Yes, that Reagan. No?
This notion of complete ideological purity can’t work in the world of practical politics.
Because Carly carries a ton of baggage around with her in the form of mass layoffs at HP and a whiff of Romney.
Cruz has the air of the know-it-all in class whose aim is to show up the teacher with his mastery of the material. I think that professorial manner has grown thin on people in this country given that we’ve been force-fed that slop for 7 years already.
There are two aspects of politics – saying and doing. When Rubio says something, you ought to kind of like the guy. He has a pleasant, genial manner – and when you look under the hood you find out that he has the motor to back up the talk.
Cruz is just too abrasive. Does that mean we ought to discard him? No. He certainly has the “doing” part down. But, we need to be looking at this not from the perspective of “Committed, Ideologically-Driven Conservatives” but from the perspective of people who are not members of our movement and ask ourselves: If I weren’t me, but were a casual voter, whom would I like more?
I don’t find Cruz abrasive. I think he tries too hard not to be the know it all smart aleck and that doesn’t work. Carly’s lay offs come with a good narrative. I’m asking about folks here who are supposed to understand these things. My question about Rubio is a serious one, but my concern about him is that Trump supporters may stay home. Rubio is the most substantively articulate of either party in my life time which includes Kennedy and Reagan (well FDR as well but I wasn’t paying attention). So if there is corruption in his background at the state level we need to know what it is. I hear this from my, anti Latino 90 year old Floridian FDR Democrat sister who also hates Obama. I think a lot of anti Rubio feelings are because he is a Latino. Trumps position on immigration is actually more open borders than Rubio’s so what is it, if not that he is, looks like and sounds like a Latin politician.