Ricochet and The Iowa Caucus

 

I meant to get this out yesterday afternoon/evening before the caucus voting began but I think the data is still timely. It’s a two-man race between Cruz and Rubio among Ricochet members.

1st choice

It’s a similar picture for the alternative candidate. You can see that members are still keeping Fiorina as a potential fall back choice.

2nd choice

Here is a look at how members are moving from their 1st to 2nd choice candidate. As in the last post, the table below shows how members voted on the 2nd choice (rows) based on who they picked as their 1st choice (columns).

2nd choice by 1st choice

Here’s a trend line of Rubio and Cruz over the past year. Members warmed to Rubio first but eventually they came to like something about Cruz enough to back him. I know that Cruz has a lot of skeptics, if not critics, on the site.

1st choice line chart

And one last comparison between Ricochet and the average GOP primary voter. Clearly, Ricochet is a Rubio/Cruz crowd and does not share the enthusiasm for Trump.

RCP v Ricochet

The sample size on this poll was 377, which yields a sampling error of +/- 5.0%.

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  1. Spin Inactive
    Spin
    @Spin

    Is the sample size month to month consistent?  That is to say, how many people voted in July versus December?

    • #1
  2. Bereket Kelile Member
    Bereket Kelile
    @BereketKelile

    It’s been fairly stable for the last few months. We typically get about 350-400 members. Back in July it was 312 and then it picked up to around 350 for a couple of months.

    • #2
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