December 2015 Ricochet Polling

 

For the most part, not much has changed from the previous month. Trump continues his rise among the Ricochetti, although it is still pretty small. Here are the top candidates from December:

1st choice all PORPOISE

And here are the top vote-getters for 2nd choice:

2nd choice all PORPOISE

I don’t know why I didn’t utilize this tool before but it’s a great way to see how people voted on the “2nd choice” question depending on their first pick. The columns indicate your top pick and the rows indicate your second choice. For example, among those who picked Rubio as their 1st choice, 53% selected Cruz and 30% went to Fiorina for their next best alternative.

2nd choice by 1st choice

You can take a look at the historical data and see Trump’s modest rise over the last couple of months. We’ll see soon enough whether this trend continues into February.

Trend line

Ricochet differs from the national average with its support for Rubio and Cruz. It seems pretty clear that the Trump-supporter profile does not apply to the members.

RCP vs. Ricochet

This poll had a sample size of 371 which yields a sampling error of 5.1%.

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  1. James Of England Inactive
    James Of England
    @JamesOfEngland

    I really appreciate your putting these together, Bereket. Thank you!

    • #1
  2. John Hendrix Thatcher
    John Hendrix
    @JohnHendrix

    Ricochet differs from the national average with its support for Rubio and Cruz. It seems pretty clear that the Trump-supporter profile does not apply to the members.

    Restored my faith!

    • #2
  3. Derek Simmons Member
    Derek Simmons
    @

    Thank you for the time effort and expertise you put into this for our benefit. And our curiosity.

    • #3
  4. Stephen Dawson Inactive
    Stephen Dawson
    @StephenDawson

    Looks like Cruz is narrowing the gap on Rubio too.

    • #4
  5. The King Prawn Inactive
    The King Prawn
    @TheKingPrawn

    Stephen Dawson:Looks like Cruz is narrowing the gap on Rubio too.

    He’s growing in the process. His acceptability seems to be edging up as Rubio’s skill as a campaigner slips a little.

    I wonder if there’s a news airtime chart somewhere and its comparison to poll numbers. Trump and Cruz seem to dominate the coverage, which probably has an outsized effect on the polling.

    • #5
  6. I Walton Member
    I Walton
    @IWalton

    So get this on national media to show where conservatives are and get free advertising for Ricochet in the process.

    • #6
  7. R. Craigen Member
    R. Craigen
    @

    I love you guys but am continually astonished at how far out of the mainstream conservative and republican base the Ricochet poll seems to show this community to be.

    I’m a Cruz/Fiorina guy myself and Rubio is a fine fellow, but he is far out of the race because of his position on immigration.   There are numerous reasons Trump has gotten such traction, but I have to say that the number one reason has got to be his uncompromising commitment to “having a border” and all that communicates to the general public.  Your massive support for Rubio says a lot … about the Ricochet community.

    Given Rubio’s likely chances, coming into Iowa, fauning attention on him like a frontrunner borders on delusional.  I still think Carly’s the better candidate but Cruz, who actually has a chance, is to whom I pay most attention now.  Who cares the guy’s a fish?  He’s a true conservative fish, and he has a chance of getting elected.

    Yes, Ricochet remains the most civil place on the web and is the go-to place for center right conversation.  But this Rubio business marks you as a conservative fringe group…and it explains why, as I just realised, I’m using third person plural here, instead of first.

    • #7
  8. ToryWarWriter Coolidge
    ToryWarWriter
    @ToryWarWriter

    I like this and the weekly standard poll to give me a real insiders view of what people are thinking.

    • #8
  9. David Sussman Member
    David Sussman
    @DaveSussman

    R. Craigen,
    Can you elaborate on your concern over Rubio’s immigration policy and why Cruz’s inconsistencies on the issue don’t merit the same concern?

    • #9
  10. Z in MT Member
    Z in MT
    @ZinMT

    I didn’t vote in the December poll because, although I liked Cruz I couldn’t see him winning in the general. However, from what I have seen is that while Cruz turns people off at first, he is such a good debater that he is able to convince minds with enough exposure. If Cruz can win the primary, I think he can win the general election. I will be voting Cruz in the January poll.

    • #10
  11. Z in MT Member
    Z in MT
    @ZinMT

    David Sussman:R. Craigen, Can you elaborate on your concern over Rubio’s immigration policy and why Cruz’s inconsistencies on the issue don’t merit the same concern?

    David,

    You are close to just repeating Rubio’s talking points. Cruz’s only inconsistency on immigration was his prior support for an expanded H1-B visa program, which he has backed away from.

    The whole smear of Cruz supporting amnesty is just that – a smear. You can’t be more of an immigration hawk than Jeff Sessions and Sessions supported Cruz’s amendment to the Gang of Eight bill.

    • #11
  12. Z in MT Member
    Z in MT
    @ZinMT

    R. Craigen,

    I agree. Ricochet is not a representative sample of the Republican electorate. It is populated by political obsessives, is generally more highly educated, and more ideologically conservative than most Republicans.

    • #12
  13. Fritz Coolidge
    Fritz
    @Fritz

    While I like a good scrap as much as the next guy, I hope Cruz and Rubio can manage to unite after the eventual nominee is chosen. In fact, I could see either a Cruz/Rubio or a Rubio/Cruz ticket as pretty formidable. Energy, brains, ideas, youth, and either one would demolish any Democrat on the stump. Trump might entertain and he does occasionally make a good point, but presidential timber? Excuse me?

    • #13
  14. David Sussman Member
    David Sussman
    @DaveSussman

    Z in MT:

    David Sussman:R. Craigen, Can you elaborate on your concern over Rubio’s immigration policy and why Cruz’s inconsistencies on the issue don’t merit the same concern?

    David,

    You are close to just repeating Rubio’s talking points. Cruz’s only inconsistency on immigration was his prior support for an expanded H1-B visa program, which he has backed away from.

    The whole smear of Cruz supporting amnesty is just that – a smear. You can’t be more of an immigration hawk than Jeff Sessions and Sessions supported Cruz’s amendment to the Gang of Eight bill.

    You mean these talking points?

    • #14
  15. Lance Inactive
    Lance
    @Lance

    Checking in after being gone awhile with my primary curiosity where the membership sat in regards to Trump. Didn’t expect quite so concise an answer. Well done. And good news.

    • #15
  16. Severely Ltd. Inactive
    Severely Ltd.
    @SeverelyLtd

    In the bottom graph, what is RCP?

    • #16
  17. Bereket Kelile Member
    Bereket Kelile
    @BereketKelile

    Severely Ltd.:In the bottom graph, what is RCP?

    Ah, thank you for the question. That is the comparison of the Ricochet poll results to the Real Clear Politics average of national polls. I should have clarified in the post.

    • #17
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