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On this week’s podcast, John Podhoretz and Noah Rothman attempt to explode the media conventional wisdom about Super Tuesday—arguing that Donald Trump did not close the deal despite what you’ve heard, that Ted Cruz outdid himself but got little credit for it, and that Marco Rubio may have found his voice as a candidate and done real harm to Trump with results to follow over the next couple of weeks. Also, some live Googling that causes Noah to tap-dance while John looks frantically for facts to back up his assertions. Well, what can you do. Enjoy.
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Good analysis. One caveat to your prediction that, at a brokered convention, Trump supporters would riot if he isn’t given the nomination: If, before the convention, Trump’s opponents and the RNC do the investigative reporting on him that the MSM is refusing to do (until Trump gets the nomination, of course), voter revulsion against Trump could be big enough that he’ll just quietly slink out of town. His supporters, meanwhile, will want to forget that they ever voted for him.
Ah, let’s sum this up. How to prevent Trump from becoming the nominee despite the fact that the voters apparently want him. We do this because:
The boobies are all agog chatting up Donald Trump’s “commanding victory” on Super Tuesday. But they are wrong. In fact, Trump fell short.
While Trump won 7 out of the 11 states in contention on March 1, he only won 237 out of 562 delegates, for a score of 42%. Before Tuesday, Trump had 82 out of 126 awarded delegates, or 65%. But as March 2 dawns, his new total is 319 out of 688, or 46%. If his win ratio in future primaries can be limited to this, he will arrive in Cleveland without the delegates to seize the nomination.
Trump’s dramatic decline in performance occurred after only 5 days of serious attacks by other candidates. There are 13 days to go before the next round of major contests on March 15, and 100 days before the decisive winner-take all California primary on June 7. Trump is going to take a lot more battering. Far from being hopeless, the chances for beating him are excellent.
To beat Trump, the Republican candidates must all direct fire against Trump. They must withdraw from fighting each other in specific states. Rubio should focus on Florida, and not waste energy in Ohio helping Trump beat Kasich there. Cruz should take the states not vital to Rubio or Kasich. Instead of weakening themselves fighting each other everywhere, the Republicans need to focus their forces on their best territories and make Trump spread himself thin fighting them all on multiple fronts.
I think that Trump has gotten the majority of his votes almost entirely because he’s been given an enormous amount of free TV face time. No one else can get their message past the 24/7 Trump chatter. He’s a master of publicity. He says something outrageous nearly every day in time for the 6pm news. And the press is more than happy to highlight him because: (a) he’s good for ratings, (b) he will be the easiest candidate for Hillary to beat, (c) he’s destroying the GOP, and (d) he fits the liberal “narrative” of the mean Republican.
Once he wins the nomination, the press will stop airing their neutral televised Trump shows. They’ll give faces to the people who Trump has victimized over the years. Trump’s negatives are already over 50%. Before they’re done, he’ll be the most hated and reviled man in the world. His “brand,” which he values at $3 billion, won’t be worth five cents.
Your only argument is to claim that, because we don’t like Trump, we must be tools of the Republican establishment. Attacking us is not a defense of Trump. It will not make Trump University go away. It will not eliminate his much delayed “repudiation” of the KKK. It won’t erase all the vile insults he’s hurled at people who ask him tough questions. It will not change his desire to gut the First Amendment. It won’t undo his misuse of eminent domain. It won’t eliminate his love of big government and for Planned Parenthood.
His voters already know his negatives. That was my point. Have you read up on Hillary’s negatives? They will be a pair to draw to. The big difference is that he won’t continue to divide this country by race and special interest groups.
We’re not stuck with Trump yet.
A contested convention will be like the church fight scene in The Kingsmen.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YymkScNefJA
Amazing that John is able to maintain his composure in the middle of a five alarm fire.
I disagree with your premise. The mass of voters don’t really know (exit polling on Super Tuesday confirmed that). By the time Hillary’s minions get done, everyone will know about Trump University, his hiring of illegals, and the workers who lost jobs in bankruptcies.
However, Trump will likely not turtle like Romney.
I am from Canada and we have delegated fights at our conventions all the time.
There is nothing more exciting than delegated conventions, and the amount of press and drama will be good for the Republican party, vs, the incredibly boring Democratic party coronation that people will snooze through.
So in the event of a brokered convention, the path to the nomination goes through a rules committee. This rules committee will change the rules in ways that will make it harder for Trump to come out on top. But somehow the Trump supporters aren’t supposed to think this is unfair?
I get not liking Trump. I’m not too hot on him myself. I get using every advantage you can muster to get your guy (even if it’s anyone else at this point) to win. But as you’re rigging the system, could you spare a thought that maybe the people complaining the system is rigged have a point?