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We know, we know — we’re 6 or 7 hours late with this. We had some technical difficulties during the recording of this show (we broke with tradition and training and left a bit of it in) which forced us to record this show in two sessions today, apologies for that. But that does not mean you, our faithful listeners are getting shortchanged. Far from it — this is one of the longest shows we’ve ever done — over 90 minutes of clever and civil conversation, featuring our guests, Andrew McCarthy, the WSJ’s Kim Strassel, and Ricochet’s own editor and senior citizen killer, Bethany Mandel, who joins to discuss her latest adventures on Twitter, which resulted in all of the right people getting mad at her.
We even crammed in a Lileks Post of The Week, and plenty of the banter that America’s Most Beloved Podcast has become so famous for. So strap yourself in or take a long, long (as in Rob) walk with the dog, cut a large lawn, do a lot of dishes, or whatever your podcast listening activity of choice is and consume this one from start to finish.
Music from this week’s show: Grandma’s Hands by Bill Withers
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Vas you dere, Charlotte?Did you watch it? Science-wise it’s silly, but if you had the chance to get on a plane and stay ahead of the Reaper’s scythe, you might climb on board. It’s not the details of the premise so much as the execution.I’m not sure how the Outer Limits ep is remotely relevant, I hate to say. “Into the Night” is “Langoliers” plus “Speed,” if that makes sense. If there’s any old show that covers the same ground, I think it’s a 1950ws “X-minus One” radio ep about a rich man who has to keep flying to keep from aging. Could be “Dimension X.” They blur.
I’m not on Twitter. (1. I refuse to monetize a site that is so notorious in its censoring of conservatives. 2. It appears to me to deal in emotional manipulation and it adds to the sum total of bitterness and grudge-holding that exists, especially in politics. Heat, not light, essentially.) Thus I was not aware of @bethanymandel‘s excellent post or the subsequent reaction until I listened to this podcast earlier today.
I would just like to add my voice to those agreeing with her. You are entirely correct, Bethany, and I hope you can withstand the pressure that is being applied. I know you’re a strong person and that you have a good support system, which certainly helps!
The Outer Limits episode “Inconstant Moon” where a professor looking at the moon in the middle of the night realizes that its sudden brightness means that sun has exploded – so he has until dawn to live… He wants to spend his last night with his unrequited love, to finally make his move … He understands his death is unavoidable, and he wants to spend the last of his life with his special lady.
Well, maybe. But especially to start with, they’re not really doing anything to avoid the coming death, because they don’t think anything CAN be done. (The original story was written by Larry Niven, and is an excellent read too.)
I was thinking more like the episode “Cool Air” from Night Gallery. Where a man has to keep his boarding house room cold using air conditioning equipment, to preserve his “ageless” state. When the equipment fails and cannot be repaired quickly enough, he quickly turns into a rotten corpse. But so long as the equipment was kept operating, death was not inevitable.
There was also an episode of the visually-neat-but-awful Space: 1999, “Death’s Other Dominion,” where a group of humans who had somehow gotten to an ice planet, found that they were “immortal” as long as they didn’t leave. If they left, they also aged/rotted quickly.
A couple of my friends from Oregon wrote a pair of novels, “The Sword Of Allah” and “The Burnt Lands” (published in the mid-80s, as I recall) wherein an artificially-triggered solar flare is used as a terrorist weapon to “attack” the US and maybe part of Western Europe as well, I don’t remember all the details offhand. But that was still not a “Worldwide Death Is Inevitable” situation.
I also note that “Into The Night” has only (so far) 6 episodes, basically half-hour each. I have yet to experience what I thought was good/effective story telling in that format.
Sorry, but the claim that a model was just fine, and had as a base premise that “no measure are taken”, is not a viable model at all, and anyone trafficking in or being part of producing such a model should be cast out from polite society. The only reasonable factors to incorporate would be “the type or extent” of measures taken, or put another way, “reactions to an outbreak”. We need to separate “government measures and government mandates” from the natural reactions of companies, families, individuals, etc.
An example: let’s apply a model to the outcome of a heavyweight prizefight. The “model” predicts that the challenger will last only a few seconds and potentially die in that time. The fight goes the distance, but the “modeler” claims total vindication of his accuracy, because it assumed “no defensive measures”. So the challenger, under one scenario, would stand, arms at his side, and wait for the onslaught.
No, the challenger did not need the boxing league to mandate he fight back, block a punch, or duck, or even run! Reactions and actions are expected as a baseline. The only legitimate modelling factors would be related to the potential success of those obvious actions, the skill and experience brought to the fight, and other measures maybe not anticipated. (rope a dope?) The modelling failures cannot hide behind the “if we did nothing” canard.
@kedavis — “they were ‘immortal’ as long as they didn’t leave. If they left, they also aged/rotted quickly.”
Sounds like Shangri-La (Lost Horizon, 1937).
Bethany defended by the president of the Mises Institute. Start at 12:00. Says she was attacked in bad faith, which she obviously was. Angelo Codevilla mentioned, which is awesome. He also brought up Joe Lockhart who belongs in a straight jacket and Solidad O’Brien, who is about the dumbest person on Twitter. Pretty thoughtful analysis I think.
For those that care Tom Woods last interview with Angelo Codevilla is just epic.
I cited a) plenty of evidence that the early estimates supposed both infection rates and mortality rates that we now know to have been too high, and, b) directly to your point, instances in which no shutdown had occurred–notably, in Sweden–in which deaths have proven no higher than in countries in which shutdowns have indeed occurred.
If you can compare two Swedens, one which had a shutdown and the other didn’t, then you might have something. Although still not necessarily very much, for the reasons that follow.
To start with, neither infection nor mortality rates are fixed. That’s the type of thing I commented/complained about earlier. If infection/mortality rates are estimated (predicted might be too loaded a term) based on existing patterns of behavior, for example, and the behavior patterns change in response to those estimates, I expect the results to also change. And so should you. That doesn’t prove the original estimates were bogus.
There are other explanations for situations like Sweden. How many flights to/from China, especially Wuhan, did (either) Sweden have? How much travel/tourism is there for Sweden generally? How many New York Cities are in Sweden? How many New York City Subway Systems are in Sweden?
I’m also reminded of the criminal-justice story told about some US official, who, when told by the Norwegian (I think it was) ambassador (or something) that Norway (or whatever) has a much lower recidivism rate than the U.S. for criminals, replied (something like) “Our recidivism rate is very low too. For Norwegians.”
Comparing apples and oranges is nothing in comparison.
A classic:
Lost Horizon (1937)
A plane crash delivers a group of people to the secluded land of Shangri-La – but is it the miraculous utopia it appears to be?
Director: Frank Capra
Won 2 Oscars
EDIT: P.S.
Exactly my thought too!
Not only is SD “the lowest unemployment in the country, AND the lowest COVID death rate in the region”, they moved quickly to explore effective early treatment.
South Dakota To Begin Clinical Trials For Hydroxychloroquine As Coronavirus Treatment
That is in stark contrast to multiple Democrat governors who have actively resisted allowing doctors the freedom to prescribe hydroxychloroquine off label for their patients, despite its established safety profile, its use now for 65 years to treat other conditions, its low cost as a generic medication, and its abundant availability due to various pharmaceutical companies donating many millions of doses.
We are supposed to be an advanced nation, but while the rest of the world is open to considering this potentially positive treatment option, we are mostly dragging our feet, with some people seemingly determined to make sure it isn’t given serious consideration, even by doctors caring for their infected patients.
The attempt of many media outlets to confuse people and equate it with a different chemical (chloroquine phosphate) found in a fish tank cleaner is reprehensible.
Really, they restricted the use of lawn mowers? That’s crazy!
If you think that’s the height of Corona-crazy, you haven’t been paying attention.
I had thought that in the USA, with the exception of maybe New York, they left you alone if you stayed at your house and weren’t having visitors they left you alone.
Are you in some sane state? I’m surely not. My governor is one of those making bids for Joe Biden’s VP slot by being a tyrant.
@ericb — The Federalist article you link dates from April 13. Have the clinical trials of hydroxychloroquine in South Dakota reported any results?
Also one international example:
I’ve seen other observations that hydroxychloroquine is most suited to early treatment to help avoid it becoming severe, and that it is a mistake to wait until the disease has become severe and HCQ is less helpful. Some of the cases of death despite using HCQ are ones where it was used for patients that were already in a severe state of being knocked out and on a ventilator. (Remdesivir might be more suited to hospitalized severe cases.)
It is true that anecdotal examples (e.g. Detroit rep says hydroxychloroquine, Trump helped save her life amid COVID-19 fight) are not a substitute for clinical research. What is inexcusable is the apparent resistance to exploring this option, even obstructing doctors caring for infected patients prior to having clinical results.
It’s battlefield medicine. That is the way to think about it. Of course that is what enough of our leaders are going to do.
Attorney General Bill Barr has said “the media’s been on a jihad to discredit the drug.”
Here is another example of positive results, this time in Texas, despite the “apocalyptic tones” used by the mainstream media to portray this helpful treatment as if it were equivalent to medical malpractice.
I’m in Florida – I won’t say it’s completely sane (where I am they closed beaches for a while – which seemed kind of dumb to me).
Still, better than being under the whims of Dear Leader Gretchen by a long shot.
not
@blueyeti; any follow up on this?
Should be any minute now. Remember, UK is produced on the West Coast where it is still early afternoon here.
I’m in Washington State. :) Maybe just impatient.
Here you go.