The One We Did On Video

Strange times call for improvisation and trying new things. So this week The Ricochet Podcast isn’t just a podcast, it’s also a Zoom webinar (sorry, the video is only for Ricochet members — not a member? Join today!). See James Lileks’ secret TV studio designed by a dyslexic! Rob Long owns and prominently displays Communist propaganda! Peter Robinson is wearing  a sweater! Wait, that’s not a surprise. OK, he’s floating above San Francisco bay! But enough about the video, more importantly, we’ve got a great guest this week: Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, a professor of medicine at the Stanford Medical School, Senior Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. He explains why the numbers we’re seeing may not tell the entire story of this pandemic. Also, a new Lileks Post of The Week, My Life as a Google End User, some thoughts about life as we now know it, and some cameo appearances from some actual Ricochet members!

Music From This Week’s Show:  Sitting In My Room by The Ramones

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There are 57 comments.

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  1. JuliaBlaschke Lincoln
    JuliaBlaschke
    @JuliaBlaschke

    James Lileks (View Comment):

    AHEM

    According to my video feed, the R behind me was pointed in the proper direction. First time using Zoom; won’t happen again. (The backwards R, I mean.)

    Didn’t bother me at all. You all did really well. 

    • #31
  2. Nohaaj Coolidge
    Nohaaj
    @Nohaaj

    Mark Alexander (View Comment):
    I don’t own firearms, and will likely get one only if Divine Spirit clearly gives me a sign. Like turning on the radio just as a gun show is advertised as I notice a bumper sticker that reads, Protected by Smith & Wesson.

    Depending on where you currently reside, it would seem likely that you could receive Divine Inspiration daily.  That is, you could once your “Stay at home” orders are rescinded.  

    • #32
  3. RufusRJones Member
    RufusRJones
    @RufusRJones

    Mark Alexander (View Comment):
    The only suggestion I have is have enough on hand to survive six weeks without power. 

    I can go about two weeks because of dehydrated food. I need to get a little gas stove or something.

     

     

    • #33
  4. RufusRJones Member
    RufusRJones
    @RufusRJones

    Taras (View Comment):
    On the other hand, international organizations that were not designed by Soviet agents for the benefit of Josef Stalin can be more effective.

    I’m strictly talking about things that are overtly political superstructures like the EU and the EMU. When they go beyond basic stuff like trade, forget it. They need to be far more careful with NATO. 

    • #34
  5. RufusRJones Member
    RufusRJones
    @RufusRJones

    Architectus (View Comment):
    Yes, I am not inclined to track it down right now, but I was appalled a few years ago to hear that states (or the feds?) were considering unused gift cards and gift certificates to be “unclaimed property”, subject to disposition by the state. Uggghhh….

    Bank bail-ins are legal now. They can do it whenever they want.

    • #35
  6. Peter Robinson Contributor
    Peter Robinson
    @PeterRobinson

    Leslie Watkins (View Comment):

    It’s true that Americans will probably never be good at conserving things. But it’s also true that we’re pretty darn good at figuring out work arounds and alternatives. At discovering and fixing stuff. And that seems like the more viable approach to take when it comes to future unknown knowns.

    Once again, Leslie says what needs to be said–and says it beautifully.

     

    • #36
  7. Ralphie Inactive
    Ralphie
    @Ralphie

    I only tuned in the hear the Dr.  

    • #37
  8. Ralphie Inactive
    Ralphie
    @Ralphie

    Trump’s strength is never really discussed concerning the benefit of him handling this crisis. Deregulation. And business ties. And confidence. Not quite Churchillian, but his own form of fighting in the trenches.

    He provides the needed tension between the narrowly focused researchers and those with an eye to long term economic danger, which is national security danger also.

     

    • #38
  9. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Taras (View Comment):

    @rufusrjones — Specifically, the U.N. is useless, because the worst international criminals, Russia and China, are not only members but also have veto power. It’s like making the Joker the Police Chief of Gotham City.

    That’s why Rob’s romantic notion of the U.N. becoming the international disease watchdog is far-fetched.

    On the other hand, international organizations that were not designed by Soviet agents for the benefit of Josef Stalin can be more effective.

    For example, in the Seventies, my late father was part of the successful effort to expel the Soviets from the World Congress of Psychiatrists, for abusing psychiatry to imprison and torture political dissidents.

    If only the World Congress of Psychiatrists had sent in their troops to bring down the Berlin Wall, etc.

    </sarcasm>

     

    • #39
  10. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    RufusRJones (View Comment):

    Mark Alexander (View Comment):
    The only suggestion I have is have enough on hand to survive six weeks without power.

    I can go about two weeks because of dehydrated food. I need to get a little gas stove or something.

    One suggestion, for those unfamiliar with some of the details:  you can get a Coleman gas stove that will run on special “camp fuel,” or you can get one that uses standard unleaded gasoline.  The latter allows you to share a fuel supply with cars.

    Same thing with the lanterns.

    I absolutely would not get a propane or butane style – or lantern – which use rather small cylinders that don’t last very long.

    • #40
  11. James Lileks Contributor
    James Lileks
    @jameslileks

    Re the discussion of Tudor City and the way it turns it back on the old slaughterhouse site:

     

     

    That’s what I meant. That’s not the design of a building that seeks to maximize the appeal of a river view.

    • #41
  12. MISTER BITCOIN Inactive
    MISTER BITCOIN
    @MISTERBITCOIN

    kedavis (View Comment):

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    Why are more people not discussing the diamond princess cruise that docked in Japan?

    19 percent infection rate. 3711 passengers and crew.
    8 deaths. Everyone was tested.

    If you take only those numbers, 19% of 3711 is 705 people. 8 deaths out of 705 is about 1.1%.

    However. Based on what Dr. Bhattacharya said just here, if there’s currently no way to know how many people have gotten corona and recovered, then there’s no way to know how many of those 3711 people might have gotten it and already recovered. Or might be asymptomatic and tested negative but still were infected just not showing it yet. That would tend to make the “bad” numbers smaller. Which is probably true since the cruise ship was far from representative. And we should hope so, because those stats applied to the whole US population would lead to almost 700,000 deaths.

    The point is if a cruise has infection rate under 20 percent, there is no way any country will have infection rate greater than 20 percent.

    Well then, the main issue is likely that, without better testing as mentioned by Dr. Bhattacharya, nobody really knows how many people have been exposed/infected but not yet showing symptoms or testing positive, or how many people already had it and recovered, because the current tests don’t show that.

    Everyone on the cruise was exposed yet only 19 percent tested positive. The other 81 percent are immune

    As I indicated, there’s really no way to know that.

    there is a way to estimate it

     

    • #42
  13. MISTER BITCOIN Inactive
    MISTER BITCOIN
    @MISTERBITCOIN

    kedavis (View Comment):

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    Why are more people not discussing the diamond princess cruise that docked in Japan?

    19 percent infection rate. 3711 passengers and crew.
    8 deaths. Everyone was tested.

    If you take only those numbers, 19% of 3711 is 705 people. 8 deaths out of 705 is about 1.1%.

    However. Based on what Dr. Bhattacharya said just here, if there’s currently no way to know how many people have gotten corona and recovered, then there’s no way to know how many of those 3711 people might have gotten it and already recovered. Or might be asymptomatic and tested negative but still were infected just not showing it yet. That would tend to make the “bad” numbers smaller. Which is probably true since the cruise ship was far from representative. And we should hope so, because those stats applied to the whole US population would lead to almost 700,000 deaths.

    The point is if a cruise has infection rate under 20 percent, there is no way any country will have infection rate greater than 20 percent.

    Well then, the main issue is likely that, without better testing as mentioned by Dr. Bhattacharya, nobody really knows how many people have been exposed/infected but not yet showing symptoms or testing positive, or how many people already had it and recovered, because the current tests don’t show that.

    Everyone on the cruise was exposed yet only 19 percent tested positive. The other 81 percent are immune

    As I indicated, there’s really no way to know that.

    as i indicated you don’t know what you are talking about

     

    • #43
  14. MISTER BITCOIN Inactive
    MISTER BITCOIN
    @MISTERBITCOIN

    Peter Robinson (View Comment):

    Leslie Watkins (View Comment):

    It’s true that Americans will probably never be good at conserving things. But it’s also true that we’re pretty darn good at figuring out work arounds and alternatives. At discovering and fixing stuff. And that seems like the more viable approach to take when it comes to future unknown knowns.

    Once again, Leslie says what needs to be said–and says it beautifully.

     

    Americans in the private sector

     

    • #44
  15. MISTER BITCOIN Inactive
    MISTER BITCOIN
    @MISTERBITCOIN

    kedavis (View Comment):

    RufusRJones (View Comment):

    Mark Alexander (View Comment):
    The only suggestion I have is have enough on hand to survive six weeks without power.

    I can go about two weeks because of dehydrated food. I need to get a little gas stove or something.

    One suggestion, for those unfamiliar with some of the details: you can get a Coleman gas stove that will run on special “camp fuel,” or you can get one that uses standard unleaded gasoline. The latter allows you to share a fuel supply with cars.

    Same thing with the lanterns.

    I absolutely would not get a propane or butane style – or lantern – which use rather small cylinders that don’t last very long.

    better call saul or chuck

     

    • #45
  16. Taras Coolidge
    Taras
    @Taras

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Taras (View Comment):

    @rufusrjones — Specifically, the U.N. is useless, because the worst international criminals, Russia and China, are not only members but also have veto power. It’s like making the Joker the Police Chief of Gotham City.

    That’s why Rob’s romantic notion of the U.N. becoming the international disease watchdog is far-fetched.

    On the other hand, international organizations that were not designed by Soviet agents for the benefit of Josef Stalin can be more effective.

    For example, in the Seventies, my late father was part of the successful effort to expel the Soviets from the World Congress of Psychiatrists, for abusing psychiatry to imprison and torture political dissidents.

    If only the World Congress of Psychiatrists had sent in their troops to bring down the Berlin Wall, etc.

    </sarcasm>

     

    Discrediting and delegitimizing the Soviet Union (especially its socialist health care system):  good.

    Embarrassing the Soviet elite in front of their pals in the West:  good.

    Putting pressure on the Soviets to back off on psychiatric abuse of dissidents:  good.

    Thereby strengthening the dissident movement:  good.

    Towards the USSR, the WCP was Reaganite before Reaganism was cool.

    • #46
  17. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    19 percent infection rate. 3711 passengers and crew.
    8 deaths. Everyone was tested.

    If you take only those numbers, 19% of 3711 is 705 people. 8 deaths out of 705 is about 1.1%.

    However. Based on what Dr. Bhattacharya said just here, if there’s currently no way to know how many people have gotten corona and recovered, then there’s no way to know how many of those 3711 people might have gotten it and already recovered. Or might be asymptomatic and tested negative but still were infected just not showing it yet. That would tend to make the “bad” numbers smaller. Which is probably true since the cruise ship was far from representative. And we should hope so, because those stats applied to the whole US population would lead to almost 700,000 deaths.

    The point is if a cruise has infection rate under 20 percent, there is no way any country will have infection rate greater than 20 percent.

    Well then, the main issue is likely that, without better testing as mentioned by Dr. Bhattacharya, nobody really knows how many people have been exposed/infected but not yet showing symptoms or testing positive, or how many people already had it and recovered, because the current tests don’t show that.

    Everyone on the cruise was exposed yet only 19 percent tested positive. The other 81 percent are immune

    As I indicated, there’s really no way to know that.

    as i indicated you don’t know what you are talking about

    Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.  Because the existing tests are only valid for a narrow range of all circumstances, and even people who are not CURRENTLY testing positive on the existing tests, might still be exposed but not yet having the characteristics the test works on, or may have been infected but recovered already…

    You can GUESStimate if you like, but it’s not very useful.  If at all.

    • #47
  18. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Taras (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Taras (View Comment):

    @rufusrjones — Specifically, the U.N. is useless, because the worst international criminals, Russia and China, are not only members but also have veto power. It’s like making the Joker the Police Chief of Gotham City.

    That’s why Rob’s romantic notion of the U.N. becoming the international disease watchdog is far-fetched.

    On the other hand, international organizations that were not designed by Soviet agents for the benefit of Josef Stalin can be more effective.

    For example, in the Seventies, my late father was part of the successful effort to expel the Soviets from the World Congress of Psychiatrists, for abusing psychiatry to imprison and torture political dissidents.

    If only the World Congress of Psychiatrists had sent in their troops to bring down the Berlin Wall, etc.

    </sarcasm>

     

    Discrediting and delegitimizing the Soviet Union (especially its socialist health care system): good.

    Embarrassing the Soviet elite in front of their pals in the West: good.

    Putting pressure on the Soviets to back off on psychiatric abuse of dissidents: good.

    Thereby strengthening the dissident movement: good.

    Towards the USSR, the WCP was Reaganite before Reaganism was cool.

    That reminds me of how Bill O’Reilly used to say stuff like how his show put so much pressure on the Saudi government, they had to do something or other.  Pssshht.  Yeah, Bill, sure.

    • #48
  19. mildlyo Member
    mildlyo
    @mildlyo

    In answer to Dr. Bhattacharya’s call for ideas to study ongoing spread of disease in the population: How about voluntary tests of blood donations.

    The existing screening questions when you give blood separate out healthy people who are feeling well at the moment of donation. If we were to tes the antibodies in the blood of lots healthy people over time, we will gather insights into diseases spreading throughout the population that have been recovered from.

    I am assuming here that antibodies can be tested in the blood and the RNA tests would be applied to stuff coughed up out of the lungs. 

    I say voluntary because this is America

    Ricochetti, any thoughts? Would this be helpful in the future?

     

    • #49
  20. mildlyo Member
    mildlyo
    @mildlyo

    To Peter’s comments on the reactions of state governors. I disagree that they are bending the knee to the federal government. I think they are showing signs of loving these “historic moments” they find themselves and glorying in the power they are grabbing. But then, I live in California…

    • #50
  21. Taras Coolidge
    Taras
    @Taras

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Taras (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Taras (View Comment):

    @rufusrjones — Specifically, the U.N. is useless, because the worst international criminals, Russia and China, are not only members but also have veto power. It’s like making the Joker the Police Chief of Gotham City.

    That’s why Rob’s romantic notion of the U.N. becoming the international disease watchdog is far-fetched.

    On the other hand, international organizations that were not designed by Soviet agents for the benefit of Josef Stalin can be more effective.

    For example, in the Seventies, my late father was part of the successful effort to expel the Soviets from the World Congress of Psychiatrists, for abusing psychiatry to imprison and torture political dissidents.

    If only the World Congress of Psychiatrists had sent in their troops to bring down the Berlin Wall, etc.

    </sarcasm>

     

    Discrediting and delegitimizing the Soviet Union (especially its socialist health care system): good.

    Embarrassing the Soviet elite in front of their pals in the West: good.

    Putting pressure on the Soviets to back off on psychiatric abuse of dissidents: good.

    Thereby strengthening the dissident movement: good.

    Towards the USSR, the WCP was Reaganite before Reaganism was cool.

    That reminds me of how Bill O’Reilly used to say stuff like how his show put so much pressure on the Saudi government, they had to do something or other. Pssshht. Yeah, Bill, sure.

    It occurs to me you may have forgotten that the Berlin Wall wasn’t torn down by “troops”.  Rather, the troops that were supposed to be guarding it became demoralized.

    Political abuse of psychiatry in the Soviet Union was denounced in the course of the Congresses of the World Psychiatric Association in Mexico City (1971), Hawaii (1977), Vienna (1983) and Athens (1989). … The campaign to terminate political abuse of psychiatry in the USSR was a key episode in the Cold War, inflicting irretrievable damage on the prestige of Soviet medicine. — Wikipedia 

     

    • #51
  22. Ralphie Inactive
    Ralphie
    @Ralphie

    mildlyo (View Comment):

    To Peter’s comments on the reactions of state governors. I disagree that they are bending the knee to the federal government. I think they are showing signs of loving these “historic moments” they find themselves and glorying in the power they are grabbing. But then, I live in California…

    Agree. I live in Michigan, and having virus problems isn’t enough, our gov picked a fight with Trump. Turns out she made a rookie mistake with FEMA. She couldn’t give an example of one company he ordered not to do business with. Michigan went for Trump in 2016, I believe she is a rising Dem star and hopeful for VP spot. Politicians have to Politic.

    • #52
  23. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Taras (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Taras (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Taras (View Comment):

    @rufusrjones — Specifically, the U.N. is useless, because the worst international criminals, Russia and China, are not only members but also have veto power. It’s like making the Joker the Police Chief of Gotham City.

    That’s why Rob’s romantic notion of the U.N. becoming the international disease watchdog is far-fetched.

    On the other hand, international organizations that were not designed by Soviet agents for the benefit of Josef Stalin can be more effective.

    For example, in the Seventies, my late father was part of the successful effort to expel the Soviets from the World Congress of Psychiatrists, for abusing psychiatry to imprison and torture political dissidents.

    If only the World Congress of Psychiatrists had sent in their troops to bring down the Berlin Wall, etc.

    </sarcasm>

     

    Discrediting and delegitimizing the Soviet Union (especially its socialist health care system): good.

    Embarrassing the Soviet elite in front of their pals in the West: good.

    Putting pressure on the Soviets to back off on psychiatric abuse of dissidents: good.

    Thereby strengthening the dissident movement: good.

    Towards the USSR, the WCP was Reaganite before Reaganism was cool.

    That reminds me of how Bill O’Reilly used to say stuff like how his show put so much pressure on the Saudi government, they had to do something or other. Pssshht. Yeah, Bill, sure.

    It occurs to me you may have forgotten that the Berlin Wall wasn’t torn down by “troops”. Rather, the troops that were supposed to be guarding it became demoralized.

    Political abuse of psychiatry in the Soviet Union was denounced in the course of the Congresses of the World Psychiatric Association in Mexico City (1971), Hawaii (1977), Vienna (1983) and Athens (1989). … The campaign to terminate political abuse of psychiatry in the USSR was a key episode in the Cold War, inflicting irretrievable damage on the prestige of Soviet medicine. — Wikipedia

    Well, then, you got me.  If Wikipedia says it, it must be true!

     

    • #53
  24. RufusRJones Member
    RufusRJones
    @RufusRJones

    For what it’s worth, I’m listening to @NanHayworth on Andrew Wilkow’s show and I would think she would make a great guest. Doctor and former Republican congressman. She’s good on TV, but she’s really good on radio.

    She just said that New York City has a slightly below average number of ICU beds per capita. That seems like a really bad idea.

    • #54
  25. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    But not surprising, for democrats.

    • #55
  26. Archibald Campbell Member
    Archibald Campbell
    @ArchieCampbell

    Was the video recorded? I can’t find the link on the member feed.

    • #56
  27. namlliT noD Member
    namlliT noD
    @DonTillman

    Archibald Campbell (View Comment):

    Was the video recorded? I can’t find the link on the member feed.

    Yes!  Here:

    http://ricochet.com/736668/the-ricochet-podcast-the-video/

    And y’know, I think it came out really well.  Nice for such a minimal production.

     

    • #57
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