Battlegrounds; Real and Imagined

Another jam packed week means another jam packed show: We’ve got the Ricochet Podcast’s Senior Court Packing and Confirmation Correspondent, John Yoo to help us sort out the coming SCOTUS confirmation hearings, and we’ve got Lt. General H.R. McMaster, U.S. Army, ret. to talk about his new book, Battlegrounds: The Fight to Defend the Free WorldAlso, a Ricochet Podcast Presidential Debate Preview and the weirdest Emmy’s ever.

Music from this week’s podcast: Roar by Katy Perry

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  1. Richard Easton Coolidge
    Richard Easton
    @RichardEaston

    Blue Yeti (View Comment):

    Brian Watt (View Comment):
    Never mind that it looks as though Trump may garner around 30 to 40% of the African-American vote – unheard of since blacks tend to vote Democrat above 90%.

    Can you give your source for this? Here’s 538 from two days ago:

    According to recent Democracy Fund polling, 83 percent of likely Black voters favored former Vice President Joe Biden, 10 percent favored President Trump, and 8 percent said they didn’t know which candidate they will back.

    Recent Morning Consult polling found almost exactly the same thing — 84 percent for Biden, 10 percent for Trump and 7 percent undecided or favoring a third-party candidate.

    So it seems likely that Biden will end up winning close to 90 percent of Black voters, with Trump winning around 10 percent, as experts on Black voting say undecided Black voters tend to consolidate to the Democrat as we get closer to Election Day.

    According to BlackDemographics.com, no Republican Presidential candidate has ever won more than 15% of the Black vote (Gerald Ford in 1976). 30 to 40% would be beyond unprecedented and would likely turn several blue states to red.

    It says that, prior to the Depression, the majority of Blacks voted for the Republican.

    • #31
  2. RufusRJones Member
    RufusRJones
    @RufusRJones

    I get why some people are forced to talk about polls because of their occupation, but I don’t think the average person should waste any psychological energy thinking about polls at all. It doesn’t do you any good. You are better off trying to understand the world and make good policy arguments. Figure out how to say some thing on social media or in person that moves people the right way politically or improves peoples lives.

    My commie brother-in-law got all worked up with me about the “fact” that Trump supposedly takes credit for things he didn’t do. What am I supposed to do with that?  How does that change the world? He loses every single policy discussion with me and he won’t go there, so he brings this stuff up. 

    This is why I like listening to Victor Davis Hanson. He’s really good at explaining more nebulous things other than policy. If it wasn’t for him, all of this would bounce off my brain.

    My only exception is, I will listen to somebody talking about polls that does it 24 / 7  and that’s their only source of income. Usually it’s very dry. 

    Here is my other sort of exception. The other day I saw Chris Buskirk talking about how you get the union vote types. This directly relates to policy because they are really getting shafted on trade and the structure of the financial system. If you listen to people like Rep. Dave Brat, Curtis Ellis, and Michael Anton, Trump is on the exact right track. All of this mindnumbing crap about trade being good and immigration being good blah blah blah is too simple in this era. Like I’ve said over and over and over: we have done every single thing wrong with respect to automation and globalized trade ever since the Soviet Union fell.

    • #32
  3. RufusRJones Member
    RufusRJones
    @RufusRJones

    Republicans that do anything that helps Biden are morons. Do you really want single-payer shoved down your throat? Court appointments are about our only edge, and the Democrats have packed the DC court. Do you really want to change what is happening in the Middle East? What’s wrong with what’s happening in the Middle East? Do you really want to go back to how we used to think about China? Have you ever heard an explanation of how unbelievably unconstitutional DACA is?

    If they had gotten rid of the ACA I would worry a lot less about the election.

    • #33
  4. Vince Guerra Inactive
    Vince Guerra
    @VinceGuerra

    Who actually takes the call when a pollster calls you up? We’re supposed to take that data seriously? Most of the people I know don’t even answer their phone if they don’t recognize the number, much less pause their life for ten minutes to talk to a stranger when they’ve got food on the grill.

    Want to get an accurate gauge on voter enthusiasm? Go on social media and ask your leftist friends if they’re willing to make a wager. See if they’re confident enough to agree, “If Trump wins, you post a picture of yourself on social media in a MAGA hat. If Biden wins I’ll post a picture of myself with a L loser sign on my forehead.”  I’ll bet you don’t get many takers, because regardless of what the word on the streets of NY and LA are, the rational people of this country are itching to make a statement.

    • #34
  5. namlliT noD Member
    namlliT noD
    @DonTillman

    Brian Watt (View Comment):

    Based on the articles I’ve read on the 538 site, yeah, I would say that the 538 team is comprised of rabid Democrats.

    Heck, FiveThirtyEight started as a project of the Daily Kos.

    The fundamental problem with polls is that they have absolutely no economic incentive to be accurate.  Witness the fact that FiveThirtyEight is still highly regarded even though it was completely wrong in 2016.

     

    • #35
  6. jerrykrause Inactive
    jerrykrause
    @jerrykrause

    @ricochet. One point ,which has not been mentioned, is that so entrenched in ‘never trump’  fever, the podcast becomes a non discussion thus deadly dull.

    • #36
  7. RufusRJones Member
    RufusRJones
    @RufusRJones

    namlliT noD (View Comment):
    The fundamental problem with polls is that they have absolutely no economic incentive to be accurate.

    I have no idea if this is true, but supposedly many of those polls are rigged or outright lie to make Republicans waste resources or make bad decisions. Then at the end they try to be super accurate. I’ve heard that more than once.

    • #37
  8. Arahant Member
    Arahant
    @Arahant

    McMaster came across very well. So did Yoo, of course. I especially liked when he was being agreeable and called Rob crazy. Just the facts, ma’am.

    • #38
  9. Arahant Member
    Arahant
    @Arahant

    James Lileks (View Comment):
    I wish I knew what it was!

    I wish I knew what the James Lileks Post of the Week was.

    • #39
  10. Blue Yeti Admin
    Blue Yeti
    @BlueYeti

    jerrykrause (View Comment):

    @ricochet. One point ,which has not been mentioned, is that so entrenched in ‘never trump’ fever, the podcast becomes a non discussion thus deadly dull.

    A thought: Maybe it wasn’t mentioned, because it’s not true. 

    A recent photo of the first guest on this show. He looks fever free to me. P.S. Neither Peter and James have got “the fever.” Hey, that rhymes!

     

    • #40
  11. Stad Coolidge
    Stad
    @Stad

    Brian Watt (View Comment):

    Oh, and the riots in Democrat-controlled cities are also somehow Trump’s fault or that the vast majority of Americans are blaming Trump for them – per Rob – and apparently have not moved any votes from Democrats to him. Really? You may want to look into that.

    Yes, bring up the Reagan-Carter election but never mind the elections of 1968 where the middle-class and blue collar reaction to rioting and domestic terrorism swayed them to vote for Nixon and in 1972 delivered a popular vote and electoral landslide to Nixon.

    I think the riots, combined with support from elected Democrat officials and the MSM, have driven more voters into the Trump camp (whether or not it changes their local votes remains to be seen).  Even the average Democrat voter has to cringe when he sees defind the police movements taken seriously by elected Democrats . . .

    • #41
  12. Wolfsheim Member
    Wolfsheim
    @Wolfsheim

    ToryWarWriter (View Comment):

    I had to skip past the beginning. You Americans think elections are won months in advance and are obsessed as I will admit I used to be on polls.

    Something I have learned in the last 4 years. Elections can turn on a dime and the vast majority of voters make up there minds in the last week before the election.

    I am a Canadian. We have elections that last a month. I have seen a Majority government of Stephen Harper go into a thanksgiving weekend with a sure majority and come out a week later with PM Trudeau.

    Polls are good for some things. But they are just not that important anymore if they ever were.

    But thats just my pet peeve. I skip ahead on poll arguments for all podcasts now a days.

    Having now finished the show it was pretty good, except for the weird ending with the non-post of the week.

    I very much agree with this comment. Last week Peter Robinson said that if he were forced to place a bet, he’d put his money on Biden. Fine. No one should demand hysterical rah-rah spirit for the home team, no matter how many points it is (supposedly) down, and one doesn’t even have to like its captain. But the alternatives are stark–and this is no game.

    • #42
  13. Wolfsheim Member
    Wolfsheim
    @Wolfsheim

    Yes, there are diehard Trumpsters, the stereotypical pick-up truck owners in MAGA hats. Now a bit too old to drive, I don’t even own a car, and I’m not sure that I’ve ever worn so much as a generic baseball cap. And yet I almost stopped listening to this episode when the (supposedly) “realistic” doom-and-gloom began. Still, I didn’t want to miss the two stunningly brilliant guests, so I remained listening.

    Living in Japan, I was particularly interested in General McMaster’s take on China, whose current regime is seen, quietly but rightly, as a mortal enemy. I am well old enough to remember the Great Cultural Revolution and the madness of it all, including its deluded sympathizers on the three continents in which I lived during that time. (I confess that in those days, being young and foolish, I was hardly an enlightened critic.) From personal experience, I have seen how succeeding generations of Chinese students have gone from budding democrats, painfully aware of the Maoist horrors, to apologists for what can only be called totalitarian ethno-racism.

    I simply cannot understand the ambivalence of those on the center-right. I have long been a Rob Long fan, but I must say that the “RINO” label gag is no longer as amusing as it once was. If Biden wins in November, it will also be a victory for international tyranny. My guess is that most of my fellow Japanese citizens are quietly but earnestly hoping for a second term for Donald Trump.

    • #43
  14. jerrykrause Inactive
    jerrykrause
    @jerrykrause

    Blue Yeti (View Comment):

    jerrykrause (View Comment):

    @ricochet. One point ,which has not been mentioned, is that so entrenched in ‘never trump’ fever, the podcast becomes a non discussion thus deadly dull.

    A thought: Maybe it wasn’t mentioned, because it’s not true.

    A recent photo of the first guest on this show. He looks fever free to me. P.S. Neither Peter and James have got “the fever.” Hey, that rhymes!

     

    I realize the never trump fever is primarily a Long sickness it has just become tiresome 

    • #44
  15. ToryWarWriter Coolidge
    ToryWarWriter
    @ToryWarWriter

    Funny how does this not feel like winning when I get videos like this in my feed.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    • #45
  16. ToryWarWriter Coolidge
    ToryWarWriter
    @ToryWarWriter

    Oh and Biden called a lid on his campaign at 9:26 AM.  

    • #46
  17. Jon1979 Inactive
    Jon1979
    @Jon1979

    ToryWarWriter (View Comment):

    Oh and Biden called a lid on his campaign at 9:26 AM.

    I am starting to think the early lids are part of an effort, as others have said, to time-shift Biden’s evening shutdown periods backwards, so he’ll be as lucid as possible for Tuesday’s debate. Pelosi may be telling Joe’s people to cancel all three debates, but I think they know he has to get through at least one of them without any Grandpa Simpson moments, and then the media can claim he p0wned Trump and there’s no need to hold the other two events.

    • #47
  18. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Jon1979 (View Comment):

    ToryWarWriter (View Comment):

    Oh and Biden called a lid on his campaign at 9:26 AM.

    I am starting to think the early lids are part of an effort, as others have said, to time-shift Biden’s evening shutdown periods backwards, so he’ll be as lucid as possible for Tuesday’s debate. Pelosi may be telling Joe’s people to cancel all three debates, but I think they know he has to get through at least one of them without any Grandpa Simpson moments, and then the media can claim he p0wned Trump and there’s no need to hold the other two events.

    Maybe they’ll have Joe stay home, and when Trump appears on stage alone, they’ll pretend that Trump didn’t even know when the debate was supposed to be!

    • #48
  19. The Cynthonian Inactive
    The Cynthonian
    @TheCynthonian

    Rob annoys me with his endless Trump negativity, but I’ve noticed that he nearly always asks the relevant podcast guests really good, thoughtful questions about foreign policy and strategy.  That was definitely true with Gen. McMaster.

    • #49
  20. Gazpacho Grande' Coolidge
    Gazpacho Grande'
    @ChrisCampion

    Polls are useful as part of the conversation but I remember the podcasts and conversations in 2016, too.  Everything pointed to a Clinton win.  It was the generally-accepted consensus that there’s no way Trump *could* win, considering the locks on the 2 coasts.  

    It’s a political podcast.  What seems unremembered is that the vast majority of the country – which means 99.9% of the 330 million – don’t follow the politics as closely as the folks on the podcast.  Pretty sure you can’t get a pulse of 330 million people from samples of 1,000, 10,000, or 100,000, that indicate much of anything significant in terms of outcomes of the election.  Certainly not enough to bet a lot of Rob’s money on.

    Or, maybe not relying on polling so much as was done in 2016.  As Peter mentioned, even in the Reagan years, polling had him far behind just prior to election day.  If we’re going to look to polls, unmentioned was Trump’s approval rating which is now over 50%.  I think I heard discussions around how he’ll never win with ratings in the lower 40’s, from just a few podcasts ago.

    Considering just the peace deal in the Middle East, something that I don’t think would have been easily predicted months ago, there’s certainly more to the Trump presidency than it is given credit for.  Absent COVID, the economy was coming back strong, too.  Weird to think about what this would look like had COVID not happened.

    • #50
  21. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    The Cynthonian (View Comment):

    Rob annoys me with his endless Trump negativity, but I’ve noticed that he nearly always asks the relevant podcast guests really good, thoughtful questions about foreign policy and strategy. That was definitely true with Gen. McMaster.

    We can count on Rob to ask good questions, and then draw the wrong conclusions from the answers.

    • #51
  22. The Cynthonian Inactive
    The Cynthonian
    @TheCynthonian

    kedavis (View Comment):

    The Cynthonian (View Comment):

    Rob annoys me with his endless Trump negativity, but I’ve noticed that he nearly always asks the relevant podcast guests really good, thoughtful questions about foreign policy and strategy. That was definitely true with Gen. McMaster.

    We can count on Rob to ask good questions, and then draw the wrong conclusions from the answers.

    I prefer to draw my own conclusions.

    • #52
  23. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Gazpacho Grande' (View Comment):
    Certainly not enough to bet a lot of Rob’s money on.

    Hey I’m happy to bet Rob’s money on all kinds of things!

    • #53
  24. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    The Cynthonian (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    The Cynthonian (View Comment):

    Rob annoys me with his endless Trump negativity, but I’ve noticed that he nearly always asks the relevant podcast guests really good, thoughtful questions about foreign policy and strategy. That was definitely true with Gen. McMaster.

    We can count on Rob to ask good questions, and then draw the wrong conclusions from the answers.

    I prefer to draw my own conclusions.

    Sure, my point was that Rob can ask a good question, and get an answer about why Trump did the right thing, and then conclude Trump did the wrong thing and so will lose and probably deserves to.

    • #54
  25. Brian Watt Inactive
    Brian Watt
    @BrianWatt

    Cabinet meetings would be very, very, very prolonged events.

     

    • #55
  26. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Brian Watt (View Comment):

    Cabinet meetings would be very, very, very prolonged events.

     

    Lots of naps, and the traditional graham crackers and juice or milk.

    • #56
  27. SParker Member
    SParker
    @SParker

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Jon1979 (View Comment):

    ToryWarWriter (View Comment):

    Oh and Biden called a lid on his campaign at 9:26 AM.

    I am starting to think the early lids are part of an effort, as others have said, to time-shift Biden’s evening shutdown periods backwards, so he’ll be as lucid as possible for Tuesday’s debate. Pelosi may be telling Joe’s people to cancel all three debates, but I think they know he has to get through at least one of them without any Grandpa Simpson moments, and then the media can claim he p0wned Trump and there’s no need to hold the other two events.

    Maybe they’ll have Joe stay home, and when Trump appears on stage alone, they’ll pretend that Trump didn’t even know when the debate was supposed to be!

    It would also present the “empty chair” debate temptation.  Leading to something like Bobby Kennedy’s quip upon seeing his opponent in the 1964 Senate race debate he didn’t show up for on TV:  “Keating’s beating the hell out of that chair!”  Biden’s comeback would probably be:  “Look who’s senile now!”  I doubt the President would put himself in a position to be upstaged by a chair, but you just never know.

    • #57
  28. Brian Watt Inactive
    Brian Watt
    @BrianWatt

    • #58
  29. genferei Member
    genferei
    @genferei

    Gazpacho Grande' (View Comment):
    I remember the podcasts and conversations in 2016, too.

    Heck, I remember the podcast when John Boehner and Paul Ryan were going to save the Republic…

    • #59
  30. Brian Watt Inactive
    Brian Watt
    @BrianWatt

    Joe Biden predicts that he’ll be dead and gone by the year 2020 in all probability. Is he that far off? Where is he by the way? Do you ever ask that question even when you’re seeing a live stream of Joe Biden? 

    • #60
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