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Appreciate Mike’s Hari Seldonish attempt at historical forecasting. But I feel he stumbles with the Nixon/Obama parallel.
Nixon was a somewhat successful centrist POTUS trying to maintain a slightly right of center version of the postwar consensus.
Obama was the left-wing transformational figure who was going to send Reagan to the dustbin of history. Yet he failed utterly after such a promising first 18 months for leftists. It may turn out to be a defining failure in our politics for a decade or more. No Trump without it. He left wreckage in both parties.
My money’s on Harris. She checks more boxes, and will collect more checks. She’ll intimidate Booker out of the race. She’s younger and more personable than Warren with graceful sex appeal, and will inherit the Obama coalition plus MeToo energized Dem girls and girlymen. California primary on March 3 won’t hurt.
There is a tide in the affairs of … and Warren’s flood was summer 2015 when Hillary’s tide was receding. Someone else rode that flood tide right into the White House.
I have to agree that Nixon/Obama is the weak link. they have some superficial similarities, but Obama is something of a Mule in all this…or else Trump is the Mule.
Your argument on public schools is wrongheaded. There is a notable difference between a bad public school and a decent public school. The bad public school actively interferes with learning, while the decent public school. A decent public school will allow for people to excel and give some basics to everyone. The difference between a decent school and one that is just good is much more variable and up for discussion.
Also, Todd’s argument on this annoyed me enough to turn off the podcast. Is he actually like this in real life, or is it just a radio / podcast persona?
Honestly, American history reads like an endless string of Mules. George Washington, Andrew Jackson, Abe Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt – who on earth would have predicted any of those personalities? And looking at the more recent presidents, even the ones that look like seat warmers in retrospect didn’t seem that way at the time.
I guess it still comes back to the “Will it play in Peoria”.
Intimidate Booker out of the race – Now there’s an interesting idea. While his natural tendency is to be a good human being, I think he’s demonstrated his willingness to be as gross as is required. Will be fun to watch!
What Ho,
Is Mike channeling Bertie Wooster? Does that make Todd Jeeves?
Regarding the education comments. I was quite surprised to find out the Elizabeth Warren advocates a voucher system. Milton Friedman championed vouchers from at least the 60’s. Not a national system but certainly for local schools. They were to be used to attend private schools in lieu of failing public schools. In his 1980 PBS series Free To Choose there is at least one episode (number 6) that deals with vouchers. It doesn’t go into detail the mechanics of it but does show the need and also privately funded schools that thrived with inner city pupils that attended them, at half the cost.
Since the 80’s there have been quite a few programs modeled on his ideas. Milwaukee and Washington D.C. are two examples. Michigan has schools of choice where students can attend public schools of their choice ( the accepting school must have room. Every semester each school publishes how many slots are available in each grade). This is not the same as Public/Private but it allows some students to escape failing schools.
The private schools in Berrien County Michigan are for the most part religious, Catholic, Lutheran, and Seventh Day Adventist. The cost of education at them is about 40% of the average cost of the public schools. The cost goes from approximately $8,000 to $10,000 per student. The higher rate is for the worst schools in the poorest area. Jesse Jackson showed up a number of years ago to protest the inequality of education between the Cities of Benton Harbor and Saint Joseph (Cities separated by a river). He was advocating for equalizing the dollar amounts of money between the 2 school systems. The city fathers took him aside when they realized what he was pushing for and told him Benton Harbor already got a lot more money than Saint Joseph from both the State and Federal Government. He left and never returned.
The idea of competition between schools is necessary to improve them. It is true that the bad ones will eventually go out of business. It won’t be for lack of money/pupil, but lack of money due to lack of pupils.
Parent involvement is crucial to student learning and deciding to get their student into a better school is one type of involvement. Locating to an area with better schools is also part of that. Any realtor will always tout the school system when showing a house.
You are right that Elizabeth Warren will abandon the voucher idea soon enough since the greatest resistance to Milton Friedman were the teachers unions and secondly school administrators. They didn’t want competition either and were happy with the status quo. I’m pretty sure she won’t buck the teachers unions.
Watch Milton Friedman’s Free to Choose not only for information about voucher’s but for a short study in Economics. I know you Harvard guys have Paul Krugman but some Milton Friedman is essential to economic sanity. Each episode is about an hour with the first half hour explaining very vididly and the second half hour Q. and A.
That should be past tense. She advocated a voucher system prior to being called to heel by the teachers’ unions. No Democrat politician with national ambition dares cross them.