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Today’s podcast takes up the rival Trump-Biden town halls and their overall effect and then tries to come up with a scenario under which the president wins an election almost all the polls say he is on the way to losing. Give a listen.
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I think you;re kind of splitting some hairs there… People didn’t like Hillary, from the get-go. The Obama coalition was decidedly unenthusiastic about her candidacy for months before the election. They stayed home as a protest vote against the democrat establishment – this protest was widely ignored. Now they come back with the only candidate more establishment than Hillary? The “Obama Coalition” is going to stay home again. IF they claim that the system is systematically racist – the democrat candidate is the guy who built it. His fingerprints all over everything that’s caused so much misery in these ethnic communities.
Its perhaps fitting that after a career of political expediency in the senate – he’s now running for president, but is expediently running against his own record.
In this episode they mentioned two considerations that gave some indication that Trump may win. The second of these (mentioned around 31:40) was the polling firm Trafalgar Group that successfully recognized what was happening in 2016 and 2018 (even while other firms were caught by surprise).
They currently observe indications that Trump may win (contrary to what other pollsters are saying).
The Editors podcast of National Review just did a special episode interview with someone from that polling firm to get some clarification about why their results were more accurate in those recent surprising elections, and also what they are seeing and projecting regarding the 2020 races.