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  1. OccupantCDN Coolidge

    I think you;re kind of splitting some hairs there… People didn’t like Hillary, from the get-go. The Obama coalition was decidedly unenthusiastic about her candidacy for months before the election. They stayed home as a protest vote against the democrat establishment – this protest was widely ignored. Now they come back with the only candidate more establishment than Hillary? The “Obama Coalition” is going to stay home again. IF they claim that the system is systematically racist – the democrat candidate is the guy who built it. His fingerprints all over everything that’s caused so much misery in these ethnic communities.

    Its perhaps fitting that after a career of political expediency in the senate – he’s now running for president, but is expediently running against his own record.


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  2. ericB Lincoln

    In this episode they mentioned two considerations that gave some indication that Trump may win.  The second of these (mentioned around 31:40) was the polling firm Trafalgar Group that successfully recognized what was happening in 2016 and 2018 (even while other firms were caught by surprise).

    During the 2016 United States presidential election, Trafalgar Group was the only polling firm showing Donald Trump winning the state of Michigan, which he ultimately did, and – according to RealClearPolitics – “nearly the only” one correctly predicting Trump’s win in Pennsylvania.[7]

    During the 2018 United States elections, Trafalgar Group accurately predicted both a Republican “Ron DeSantis gubernatorial victory in Florida – as well as Republican Rick Scott winning the Senate race there.” Trafalgar also correctly predicted 7 of the 9 “battleground” senate races the firm polled in 2018. Those states, along with Florida, included: Michigan, Montana, Missouri, North Dakota, Texas, and West Virginia.[8]

    Trafalgar Group

    They currently observe indications that Trump may win (contrary to what other pollsters are saying).

    The Editors podcast of National Review just did a special episode interview with someone from that polling firm to get some clarification about why their results were more accurate in those recent surprising elections, and also what they are seeing and projecting regarding the 2020 races.

    Special Episode: The Pollster Who Thinks Trump Is Ahead

    October 18, 2020On this special Sunday edition of The Editors, Rich interviews Trafalgar Group CEO Robert Cahaly about polling and what it says about the upcoming election.

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